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Alexander Downes on the Foreshadowed Failures of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change
Foreign-imposed regime change is a policy tool that a number of countries—most frequently the United States—have used to establish friendly regimes and align interests in regions around the world. With the ongoing unrest in Iran and the war in Ukraine, foreign-imposed regime change is in the news once again.
But conversations around foreign-imposed regime change often occur without reference to the whole historical record. Hindsight might suggest that foreign-imposed regime change can be done but that it just needs to be done better, that we just need more resources or better strategy.
To evaluate the efficacy of foreign-imposed regime change in a systematic way, Lawfare associate editor Hyemin Han spoke with Alexander Downes, professor of political science and international affairs at The George Washington University, who wrote a book about it called “Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong.” With his data set, he draws out the lessons we can learn from attempts of foreign-imposed regime change over time. Ultimately, he argues that even when foreign-imposed regime change works, its successes don't last very long, and the downsides of regime change are actually built into the process of trying to achieve it in the first place.
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Lawfare Archive: El Salvador’s President Cracks Down on Gangs—and Democracy
01:05:52|From May 9, 2023: Since March 2022, El Salvador has been under a state of exception as its President Nayib Bukele seeks to crack down on the country’s powerful gangs. Bukele, who once described himself on Twitter as the “world’s coolest dictator,” has engaged in a prolonged attack on El Salvador’s democratic institutions. And the crackdown has resulted in a range of human rights abuses. At the same time, Bukele really does seem to have been successful in curbing gang violence, and his popularity is sky high. To understand the situation in El Salvador, Lawfare Senior Editor Quinta Jurecic spoke with Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez, a PhD candidate in Political Science at Harvard University who has written about Bukele on Lawfare. They discussed why Bukele’s crackdown on the gangs seems to be working, why it might fall apart in the long term, and what Bukele’s rise means for democracy in El Salvador and around the world.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Daily: Trump’s Rescissions Request, Impoundments, and the Litigation Over Foreign Assistance
59:28|For today’s episode, Lawfare General Counsel and Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson and Lawfare Senior Editor and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Molly Reynolds sat down for a conversation about the rescissions package President Trump recently put forward to Congress, how it relates to the litigation over the president’s attempted cuts to U.S. foreign assistance, and what it all signals about how the administration intends to handle impoundments moving forward.Discussed in this episode:“The Myth of Presidential Impoundment Power” from Protect DemocracyTo receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Archive: Jack Goldsmith and Bob Bauer on Reforming the Insurrection Act
57:58|From April 12, 2024: The Insurrection Act is a provision that allows the president to deploy the U.S. military for domestic law enforcement. It’s been invoked dozens of times by presidents to respond to crises in the over 230 years that it’s been around, but it hasn’t been reformed in centuries. In recent years, the Insurrection Act has come back into public focus because of its implication in a number of domestic crises, prompting a renewed conversation about whether it’s finally time to curb the sweeping powers afforded to the executive in this unique federal law.On April 8, the American Law Institute released a set of principles for Insurrection Act reform, prepared by a group of 10 individuals with backgrounds in constitutional law, national security law, and military law. The co-chairs of this group were Jack Goldsmith, Lawfare Co-Founder and Harvard Law School Professor, and Bob Bauer, Professor of Practice and Distinguished Scholar in Residence at New York University School of Law. They joined Lawfare Associate Editor Hyemin Han to talk about the history of the Insurrection Act, to parse out the recommendations the American Law Institute is making for reform, and to make the case for reforming the act in 2024.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Rational Security: The "Middle East War to End Middle East Wars" Edition
01:14:24|This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Foreign Policy Editors Daniel Byman and Dana Stuster to talk through the week’s big news in Israel and Iran, including:“The Nuclear Option.” Israel crossed the rubicon late last week and took direct military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, among other targets, in an aggressive unilateral military campaign that has only expanded in the ensuing days. Iran, meanwhile, has reciprocated with volleys of attacks against Israel, some of which are getting through the substantial missile defenses Israel (and the United States) have deployed. It’s the Middle East war everyone has feared for more than a decade. How will it come to an end? And what will its ramifications be for the region?“Bibi Got Back.” Israel has threatened to take direct military action against Iran over its nuclear program multiple times over the past two decades but has always stopped short. Why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceed this time? And what will the implications be for his government, which has been teetering on the edge of collapse? And for his relationship with President Trump, his once close ally who declined to back his decision to proceed?“Bye-Atollah.” While Israel’s official target has been Iran’s nuclear and military complexes, many observers suspect that their real goal is something else: regime change. And recent reports that Netanyahu proposed killing Iranian political and spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini—but relented after objections from the Trump administration—suggest they may be right. What might Iran look like if its current regime collapses? And will it help or hurt Israeli (and U.S.) security interests?In Object Lessons, Tyler sang the praises of online radio station NTS.Live and NTS Guides to all of your quirky and eclectic musical tastes. Scott didn’t miss a beat with his throwback recommendation of Schoolhouse Rock song covers, with a particular fondness for Pavement’s rendition of No More Kings. And Dana shared his appreciation for analysis that takes Israel’s and Iran’s strategic calculus seriously.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Daily: The Israel/Iran Conflict: What Do We Know So Far?
01:01:12|On today's episode, Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett discussed the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran with Suzanne Maloney, Director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, and Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace. They talked about how the conflict is unfolding, the nature of U.S. involvement, and why, after so many years of tensions, Israel chose this moment to attack. Although the conflict began only a few days ago, on June 13, it’s already clear that it has the potential to dramatically change the regional and international dynamics of the Middle East.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Daily: Evaluating January 6 Prosecutions with Greg Rosen
55:03|Greg Rosen, now an attorney at Rogers Joseph O’Donnell, spoke with James Pearce, Lawfare Legal Fellow, about his time prosecuting federal crimes in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia. He focused mostly on the investigation and prosecution that followed the attack of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. He discussed how the U.S. Attorney’s Office carried out the largest investigation in the history of the country, how it handled the multiple investigative and logistical challenges the prosecutions posed, and how to think about the Supreme Court’s decision holding that the congressional obstruction count charged in many Jan. 6 cases was misapplied. Rosen also weighed in on the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s under the second Trump administration. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Daily: The Trials of the Trump Administration, June 13
01:36:15|In a live conversation on June 13, Lawfare Editor in Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Lawfare Legal Fellow James Pearce and Lawfare Senior Editors Anna Bower, Quinta Jurecic, and Roger Parloff to discuss the legality of President Trump federalizing the California National Guard to send them to L.A., the pretrial detention hearing of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, updates in Alien Enemies Act litigation, the indictment of Representative LaMonica McIver, and more.You can find information on legal challenges to Trump administration actions here. And check out Lawfare’s new homepage on the litigation, new Bluesky account, and new WITOAD merchLawfare Archive: The Court at War
01:03:03|From December 26, 2023: The Supreme Court during World War II issued some of the most notorious opinions in its history, including the Japanese exclusion case, Korematsu v. United States, and the Nazi saboteur military commission case, Ex parte Quirin. For a fresh take on these and related cases and a broader perspective on the Supreme Court during World War II, Jack Goldsmith sat down with Cliff Sloan, a professor at Georgetown Law Center and a former Special Envoy for Guantanamo Closure, to discuss his new book, which is called “The Court at War: FDR, His Justices, and the World They Made.” They discussed how the Court's decisions during World War II were informed by the very close personal bonds of affection that most of the justices had with President Roosevelt and by the justices’ intimate attachment to and involvement with the war effort. They also discussed the fascinating internal deliberations in Korematsu, Quirin, and other momentous cases, and the puzzle of why the same court that issued these decisions also, during the same period, issued famous rights-expanding decisions in the areas of reproductive freedom, voting rights, and freedom of speech.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Lawfare Archive: Protests, the Police, and the Press
48:20|From June 21, 2023: Carolyn Cole, a Pulitzer-Prize winning staff photographer for the Los Angeles Times, has covered wars and other conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Kosovo, Liberia, Sudan, Nicaragua, Haiti, and the U.S.-Mexico border. Over the course of her 30 year career, she has been seriously injured on the job precisely once—when members of the Minnesota State Patrol pushed Cole over a retaining wall and pepper sprayed her so badly that her eyes were swollen shut. Cole was in Minneapolis in the summer of 2020 to cover the protests after the murder of George Floyd. She was wearing a flak jacket marked TV, a helmet, and carried press credentials at the time of her attack. Cole’s story is not unique among the press corps. According to a new report out this week from the Knight First Amendment Institute called “Covering Democracy: Protests, the Police, and the Press,” in 2020, at least 129 journalists were arrested while covering social justice protests and more than 400 suffered physical attacks, 80 percent of them at the hands of law enforcement. As Joel Simon, author of the report and former Executive Director of the Committee to Protect Journalists, writes, “The presence of the media is essential to dissent; it is the oxygen that gives protests life. Media coverage is one of the primary mechanisms by which protesters’ grievances and demands reach the broader public.”Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien sat down with Joel, as well as Katy Glenn Bass, the Research Director of the Knight First Amendment Institute, to discuss the report, the long legacy of law enforcement attacks on journalists covering protests in America, who counts as “the press” in the eyes of the court, and what can be done to better ensure press freedom.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.