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Australia's Property Market: Slower Growth Ahead
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Australias property market, known for consistent growth, may see slower expansion in 2026 following an 8.6% surge in 2021. CoreLogic research indicates national price rises could slow to 5% or less due to high house prices relative to incomes and prolonged higher mortgage rates. However, demand is expected to continue breaking records, albeit at a slower pace.
Lower-priced homes in the bottom quarter of the market are gaining traction, driven by first-time buyers seeking affordable options amid tight rentals and new government deposit guarantees. This shift is drawing mainstream demand away from pricier segments due to debt levels and lending limits.
Regional cities like Adelaide, Perth, and Brisbane have outperformed Sydney and Melbourne recently, but they also carry risks. Adelaide has the highest risk of a market pullback due to high value-to-income ratios and weaker migration. Meanwhile, buyers priced out of city centers are flocking to cheaper regional spots, causing short-term booms that could leave late investors exposed.
Melbourne presents a potential bargain, with the third-most affordable capital prices and room for growth, despite soft interstate moves. Sydneys growth eased late last year, but luxury records could soon be shattered again.
Government initiatives for denser housing aim to alleviate supply shortages, but developers prioritize profitability over faster approvals. With rate cut hangovers, buyer schemes, and slowing migration ahead, the market remains resilient yet tempered, setting the stage for varied outcomes across the country.
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