The IR thinker

How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.Selected PublicationsEurope United: Power Politics and the Making of the European CommunityIntentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of ConflictHow States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer)Chapters00:00 Introduction02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?Follow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

Why is Africa still importing so much of the food it consumes? What is holding back trade in food and agricultural products between African countries? In this interview, we speak with Professor David Luke, editor of How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security and Climate Risks, an open-access book published by LSE Press.We discuss the causes of food insecurity across Africa, the role of agricultural investment, and the barriers that make it difficult for African countries to trade food with one another. Professor Luke explains why non-tariff barriers matter, where intra-African food trade falls short, and what the AfCFTA could mean for African agriculture.The conversation also covers Africa’s approach to the WTO, the future of the Malabo Declaration, countries making progress in agricultural transformation, and China’s role in African agriculture. The interview concludes with a discussion of where research on African agriculture should go next.David Luke is Professor in Practice and Strategic Director at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, LSE and Extraordinary Professor at North-West University, South Africa, specialising in African trade policy, trade negotiations, and development. Selected PublicationsHow Africa TradesHow Africa EatsImplementing the AfCFTA: A sluggish startChapters00:00 Introduction01:39 Rethinking Africa’s Hunger Narrative06:51 The Root Causes of Food Insecurity in Africa12:28 How the Research Was Conducted15:13 Why Non-Tariff Barriers Matter for African Food Trade17:43 The Missing Link in Intra-African Food Trade20:12 Agricultural Investment: Africa’s Internal and External Drivers24:49 Africa’s WTO Strategy: Practical Outcomes Over Ideology29:11 Does the Malabo Declaration Need an Upgrade?31:11 Countries Driving Africa’s Agricultural Transformation32:23 China’s Role in African Agriculture34:36 Future Research Priorities in African AgricultureFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

In this episode, Professor Miles Kahler discusses the future of global governance in an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, shifting power balances, and growing challenges to the post-1945 international order. Drawing on his recent paper, Global Governance in the Twenty-First Century: Sustain, Reform, Transform, he examines whether existing international institutions can still adapt or whether new forms of cooperation will be required.Professor Miles Kahler is Research Professor-in-Residence and Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the School of International Service, American University. He is also a Non-resident Scholar in the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on international institutions, global governance, international political economy, regionalism, and the evolution of the international order. He has written extensively on global governance, international cooperation, and the political economy of globalisation, and is widely recognised as one of the leading scholars in the study of international institutions.Selected Publications Global governance in the twenty-first century: Sustain, reform, transformFrom Complex Interdependence to Complex GovernanceGlobal governance in the twenty-first century: End of the Bretton Woods moment?The Bretton Woods Moment: Hierarchies, Networks, and Markets in the Long Twentieth CenturyGlobal governance: Three futuresChapters00:00 Introduction01:58 When Are Institutional Reforms No Longer Enough?05:16 Can Middle Powers Shape a New Global Order?10:21 Consensus-Based Multilateralism vs. Plurilateral Cooperation16:15 Why Is BRICS Less Coherent Than Expected in Global Governance?22:20 Why Do Countries Join BRICS? Choice or Necessity?29:19 How Technology and Supply Chains Are Redefining Spheres of Influence34:30 The Future of Values and Interests in Global Governance41:41 Does the Liberal International Order Need an Upgrade?46:11 Strengthening Regional Governance: Rules, Norms, and Institutions52:38 AI and the Future of Global Governance59:59 Has International Relations Neglected Domestic Politics?01:05:41 Underexplored Research Agendas in Global GovernanceA clarifying note at 13:18: "COP 30 reached agreement on several issues, such as a work program on climate finance, but it was not able to reach consensus on a roadmap transitioning from fossil fuels. That issue that led to the Santa Marta Conference, a coalition of the willing that aimed to phase out fossil fuels."Follow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

Published by the Brazilian Institute of International Relations since 1958, the Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (Brazilian Journal of International Politics, also known as RBPI) has spent nearly seven decades serving as a vital bridge between Latin American scholarship and global debates on international affairs.The journal has also reached several important milestones, including its transition to open access, the adoption of English as a publication language, and its integration into the SciELO digital publishing platform. These developments have significantly expanded its international reach and influence.Editor-in-Chief: Haroldo Ramanzini JúniorImpact Factor: 2025 (1.0) / 5-Year Impact Factor: 1.20Indexed: Scopus / Web of Science First Decision: 90 daysAcceptance Rate: 20%Haroldo Ramanzini Júnior is a Brazilian political scientist specialising in Brazilian foreign policy, regionalism, and Latin American international relations, and serves as Associate Professor at the Institute of International Relations at the University of Brasília.Chapters00:00 Introduction02:16 The Intellectual Identity of RBPI04:46 What Makes RBPI Unique Among Latin American IR Journals?10:31 Maintaining Thematic and Conceptual Coherence12:49 Brazil's Foreign Policy, Latin America, and Global Perspectives15:03 Emerging Intellectual Trends in Submissions17:00 Which Research Topics Are Growing Most Rapidly?19:08 Methodological Diversity in RBPI21:35 The Most Common Mistakes in Submitted Manuscripts24:33 Ensuring a High-Quality Editorial Process27:29 Artificial Intelligence in Editorial Work and Peer Review30:26 Editorial Innovations and Future Publishing Practices35:49 Who Can Join the Editorial Board?36:49 Should Authors Suggest Potential Reviewers?39:25 Publishing in English and Internationalising the Journal42:48 The Future Direction of RBPI45:52 What Editorial Leadership Has Meant for Dr Ramanzini Junior's CareerFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

In 1989, an American cultural institute helped arrange Boris Yeltsin's first trip to the United States — and a single visit to a supermarket may have changed the course of Soviet history. Thus, what is the untold story of America's involvement in the transformation of the Soviet Union?Daniel Satinsky is an independent scholar, retired attorney and retired business consultant. He began his career in the Soviet Union, then Russia, as part of a US-Russia telecom joint venture in 1991 and then continued with business and consulting projects in Russia up to 2014.Selected PublicationCreating the Post-Soviet Russian Market Economy: Through American EyesOver those years he traveled extensively across the country from Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Central Russia Golden Ring cities, the Urals and Siberia. Subsequently, he has been researching and writing about the interaction between Americans and Russians in this unique historical period.After publishing his most recent book, Creating the Post Soviet Russian Market Economy: Through American Eyes, he has developed an oral history of interviews with foreigners active in Russia during the late 1980s through the early 2000s, available online as The Satinsky Archive, now including 55 in-depth interviews.He was Chairman of the Board of the US Russia Chamber of Commerce of New England from 2000 – 2014 and currently is a Local Affiliate of the Davis Center at Harvard.Chapters00:00 Introduction03:28 The Esalen Institute and Boris Yeltsin's Visit to the United States21:02 SovAm Teleport: Establishing a Soviet–American Internet Connection29:50 SP Dialog: American Technology and the Transformation of Soviet Banking39:32 Project Harmony: Community Exchanges and American Police Officers in the Soviet Union49:30 Russian Privatisation and the Role of American Companies01:06:11 American Companies in Russia: Independent Ventures or Western Partnerships?01:08:17 Investment Opportunities in the Post-Soviet Space01:10:56 Radio Maximum, Cosmopolitan, and Western Cultural Influence in Russia01:16:23 Sources, Evidence, and the Limits of Satinsky's ResearchFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

Artificial intelligence is redrawing the boundaries of cybersecurity — accelerating attacks, complicating attribution, and compressing the time humans have to make decisions that matter. In this episode, Myriam Dunn Cavelty of ETH Zurich examines AI-driven conflict, the politics behind critical infrastructure protection, the limits of European governance, and what it means when cyber war has no clear start and no clear finish.Myriam Dunn Cavelty is a Senior Scientist at the Centre for Security Studies at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich. Her research examines the political and societal implications of digital technologies, with a particular focus on cyber security, cyber warfare, critical infrastructure protection, and technology governance. She also serves as co-editor-in-chief of Contemporary Security Policy.Selected PublicationsThe evolution of cyberconflict studiesThe politics of cyber securityCyber security politics: Socio-technological transformations and political fragmentationCybersecurity in SwitzerlandCyber-security and threat politics: US efforts to secure the information ageRecommended article:Cyber War Will Not Take PlaceChapters00:00 - Introduction01:55 - What Actually Counts as Critical Infrastructure in the Age of AI?07:58 - ENISA: Europe's Cybersecurity Watchdog — Triumphs, Failures, and Missed Opportunities13:00 - Does the World Need a Global Cybersecurity Regulator?14:43 - Hacked Nations: Geopolitical Coercion, Hybrid Warfare, and Strategic Signalling25:48 - Is Cybersecurity a Political Problem Dressed Up as a Technical One?32:31 - War Without End: Why AI-Driven Conflict Has No Clear Start, No Clear Finish38:27 - Who Did It? The Dangerous Art of Attribution in Cyber Warfare43:58 - The Speed Problem: When AI Makes Decisions Faster Than Humans Can Think48:33 - Arming the Enemy: What Happens When Open-Source AI Falls Into the Wrong Hands?52:00 - Measuring the Unmeasurable: How Do You Rank a Country's Cyber Power?58:27 - The Blind Spots of AI Cybersecurity Research TopicsFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

Today, it is a real pleasure to speak with Professor Jonathan Fisher, co-editor of African Affairs — one of the leading journals in the field of African Studies. African Affairs is a peer-reviewed academic journal published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the London-based Royal African Society.It was established as the Journal of the African Society in 1901, then it was published as the Journal of the Royal African Society from 1936 until it obtained its current name in 1944.The journal is broadly interdisciplinary, with a primary focus on the politics and international relations of sub-Saharan Africa, though it also draws on sociology, anthropology, economics, history, literature, and the arts where these illuminate debates on contemporary Africa.Co-EditorsGeorge M. Bob-MilliarJonathan FisherAmanda Lea RobinsonGabrielle LynchImpact Factor: 2.2 / 5-Year Impact Factor: 2.7Indexed: Scopus / Web of ScienceJonathan Fisher is Professor of Global Security at the University of Birmingham where he also serves as Deputy Director of Research and Knowledge Transfer for the College of Social Sciences.His research centres on the role of ideas and legitimacy within authoritarian systems, with extensive fieldwork across eastern Africa, where his work has examined how guerrilla heritage shapes contemporary governance, conflict, and cooperation, as well as the growing phenomenon of digital authoritarianism.Chapters00:00 Introduction01:41 The Journal’s Evolving Mission and Research Identity08:00 Balancing Intellectual Coherence with Disciplinary Diversity11:19 The Place of Empirical and Theoretical Research in Submissions13:03 Emerging Trends in Manuscripts and Desired Research Directions16:27 Underexplored Regions and Research Gaps across Africa18:40 Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed-Methods Approaches in Publication24:04 The Most Frequent Mistakes in Article Submissions25:49 Common Pitfalls for Early-Career Researchers27:26 Structural and Technical Weaknesses in Academic Articles29:00 The Impact of AI on Editorial and Peer-Review Processes31:30 Editorial Reforms and the Journal’s Growing Academic Standing33:46 The Role and Significance of the Editorial Board37:14 Supporting Marginalised and Underrepresented Scholars40:37 Contributions from Latin America, Asia, and China41:57 Does the Journal Encourage Authors to Suggest Reviewers?42:43 Future Vision, Priorities, and Strategic Goals of the JournalFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

Today, it is a real pleasure to speak with the editorial team of Regional & Federal Studies, one of the leading journals in the field of territorial politics, regionalism, and federalism. The journal was established in 1991 as Regional Politics and Policy: An International Journal focusing on regionalism in Western Europe. In 1995, the journal changed its name to Regional and Federal Studies, expanding its focus and scope.Impact Factor: 1.4 / 5-Year Impact Factor: 1.6Indexed: Scopus / Web of ScienceFirst Decision: 40 daysAcceptance Rate: 28%Davide Vampa, Lead Editor of the journal and Senior Lecturer in Territorial Politics at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, where he also serves as Co-Director of the Centre on Constitutional Change and Chair of the ECPR Standing Group on Federalism and Regionalism, as well as Mariely Lopez-Santana, Deputy Lead Editor and Associate Professor of Political Science at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, USA.Chapters00:00 Introduction01:45 The Journal’s Intellectual Identity06:01 How the Journal Adapted to a Changing Field08:33 Managing Breadth and Coherence Across Federalism, Regionalism, and Multilevel Governance10:43 Crossing Disciplinary Boundaries: Bridging Political Science and Beyond14:02 Theory or Empirics? Balancing Conceptual Innovation and Case-Based Research18:00 Major Intellectual Trends in Regional and Federal Politics22:09 Underexplored Topics25:32 Methodological Diversity: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Approaches27:48 Methodological Shifts: Dominant Approaches and Emerging Techniques29:53 The Data Challenge: Obstacles in Gathering Quantitative Evidence32:44 Why Papers Get Rejected: Common Problems in Manuscript Submissions37:25 Early Career Scholars: Frequent Mistakes and Professional Advice44:34 The Journal’s Position on AI48:59 Peer Review Process: Fairness, Transparency, and Editorial Efficiency53:47 The Role and Strategic Importance of the Editorial Board57:03 Supporting Underrepresented Scholars and Regions01:03:33 Should Authors Recommend Reviewers?01:03:49 Looking Ahead: Future PrioritiesFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/