The IR thinker

How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.Selected PublicationsEurope United: Power Politics and the Making of the European CommunityIntentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of ConflictHow States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer)Chapters00:00 Introduction02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?Follow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

Why is Africa still importing so much of the food it consumes? What is holding back trade in food and agricultural products between African countries? In this interview, we speak with Professor David Luke, editor of How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security and Climate Risks, an open-access book published by LSE Press.We discuss the causes of food insecurity across Africa, the role of agricultural investment, and the barriers that make it difficult for African countries to trade food with one another. Professor Luke explains why non-tariff barriers matter, where intra-African food trade falls short, and what the AfCFTA could mean for African agriculture.The conversation also covers Africa’s approach to the WTO, the future of the Malabo Declaration, countries making progress in agricultural transformation, and China’s role in African agriculture. The interview concludes with a discussion of where research on African agriculture should go next.David Luke is Professor in Practice and Strategic Director at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, LSE and Extraordinary Professor at North-West University, South Africa, specialising in African trade policy, trade negotiations, and development. Selected PublicationsHow Africa TradesHow Africa EatsImplementing the AfCFTA: A sluggish startChapters00:00 Introduction01:39 Rethinking Africa’s Hunger Narrative06:51 The Root Causes of Food Insecurity in Africa12:28 How the Research Was Conducted15:13 Why Non-Tariff Barriers Matter for African Food Trade17:43 The Missing Link in Intra-African Food Trade20:12 Agricultural Investment: Africa’s Internal and External Drivers24:49 Africa’s WTO Strategy: Practical Outcomes Over Ideology29:11 Does the Malabo Declaration Need an Upgrade?31:11 Countries Driving Africa’s Agricultural Transformation32:23 China’s Role in African Agriculture34:36 Future Research Priorities in African AgricultureFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

In this episode, Professor Miles Kahler discusses the future of global governance in an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, shifting power balances, and growing challenges to the post-1945 international order. Drawing on his recent paper, Global Governance in the Twenty-First Century: Sustain, Reform, Transform, he examines whether existing international institutions can still adapt or whether new forms of cooperation will be required.Professor Miles Kahler is Research Professor-in-Residence and Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the School of International Service, American University. He is also a Non-resident Scholar in the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on international institutions, global governance, international political economy, regionalism, and the evolution of the international order. He has written extensively on global governance, international cooperation, and the political economy of globalisation, and is widely recognised as one of the leading scholars in the study of international institutions.Selected Publications Global governance in the twenty-first century: Sustain, reform, transformFrom Complex Interdependence to Complex GovernanceGlobal governance in the twenty-first century: End of the Bretton Woods moment?The Bretton Woods Moment: Hierarchies, Networks, and Markets in the Long Twentieth CenturyGlobal governance: Three futuresChapters00:00 Introduction01:58 When Are Institutional Reforms No Longer Enough?05:16 Can Middle Powers Shape a New Global Order?10:21 Consensus-Based Multilateralism vs. Plurilateral Cooperation16:15 Why Is BRICS Less Coherent Than Expected in Global Governance?22:20 Why Do Countries Join BRICS? Choice or Necessity?29:19 How Technology and Supply Chains Are Redefining Spheres of Influence34:30 The Future of Values and Interests in Global Governance41:41 Does the Liberal International Order Need an Upgrade?46:11 Strengthening Regional Governance: Rules, Norms, and Institutions52:38 AI and the Future of Global Governance59:59 Has International Relations Neglected Domestic Politics?01:05:41 Underexplored Research Agendas in Global GovernanceA clarifying note at 13:18: "COP 30 reached agreement on several issues, such as a work program on climate finance, but it was not able to reach consensus on a roadmap transitioning from fossil fuels. That issue that led to the Santa Marta Conference, a coalition of the willing that aimed to phase out fossil fuels."Follow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

Published by the Brazilian Institute of International Relations since 1958, the Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (Brazilian Journal of International Politics, also known as RBPI) has spent nearly seven decades serving as a vital bridge between Latin American scholarship and global debates on international affairs.The journal has also reached several important milestones, including its transition to open access, the adoption of English as a publication language, and its integration into the SciELO digital publishing platform. These developments have significantly expanded its international reach and influence.Editor-in-Chief: Haroldo Ramanzini JúniorImpact Factor: 2025 (1.0) / 5-Year Impact Factor: 1.20Indexed: Scopus / Web of Science First Decision: 90 daysAcceptance Rate: 20%Haroldo Ramanzini Júnior is a Brazilian political scientist specialising in Brazilian foreign policy, regionalism, and Latin American international relations, and serves as Associate Professor at the Institute of International Relations at the University of Brasília.Chapters00:00 Introduction02:16 The Intellectual Identity of RBPI04:46 What Makes RBPI Unique Among Latin American IR Journals?10:31 Maintaining Thematic and Conceptual Coherence12:49 Brazil's Foreign Policy, Latin America, and Global Perspectives15:03 Emerging Intellectual Trends in Submissions17:00 Which Research Topics Are Growing Most Rapidly?19:08 Methodological Diversity in RBPI21:35 The Most Common Mistakes in Submitted Manuscripts24:33 Ensuring a High-Quality Editorial Process27:29 Artificial Intelligence in Editorial Work and Peer Review30:26 Editorial Innovations and Future Publishing Practices35:49 Who Can Join the Editorial Board?36:49 Should Authors Suggest Potential Reviewers?39:25 Publishing in English and Internationalising the Journal42:48 The Future Direction of RBPI45:52 What Editorial Leadership Has Meant for Dr Ramanzini Junior's CareerFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

In 1989, an American cultural institute helped arrange Boris Yeltsin's first trip to the United States — and a single visit to a supermarket may have changed the course of Soviet history. Thus, what is the untold story of America's involvement in the transformation of the Soviet Union?Daniel Satinsky is an independent scholar, retired attorney and retired business consultant. He began his career in the Soviet Union, then Russia, as part of a US-Russia telecom joint venture in 1991 and then continued with business and consulting projects in Russia up to 2014.Selected PublicationCreating the Post-Soviet Russian Market Economy: Through American EyesOver those years he traveled extensively across the country from Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Central Russia Golden Ring cities, the Urals and Siberia. Subsequently, he has been researching and writing about the interaction between Americans and Russians in this unique historical period.After publishing his most recent book, Creating the Post Soviet Russian Market Economy: Through American Eyes, he has developed an oral history of interviews with foreigners active in Russia during the late 1980s through the early 2000s, available online as The Satinsky Archive, now including 55 in-depth interviews.He was Chairman of the Board of the US Russia Chamber of Commerce of New England from 2000 – 2014 and currently is a Local Affiliate of the Davis Center at Harvard.Chapters00:00 Introduction03:28 The Esalen Institute and Boris Yeltsin's Visit to the United States21:02 SovAm Teleport: Establishing a Soviet–American Internet Connection29:50 SP Dialog: American Technology and the Transformation of Soviet Banking39:32 Project Harmony: Community Exchanges and American Police Officers in the Soviet Union49:30 Russian Privatisation and the Role of American Companies01:06:11 American Companies in Russia: Independent Ventures or Western Partnerships?01:08:17 Investment Opportunities in the Post-Soviet Space01:10:56 Radio Maximum, Cosmopolitan, and Western Cultural Influence in Russia01:16:23 Sources, Evidence, and the Limits of Satinsky's ResearchFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/

After 9/11, the word "terrorism" replaced older colonial vocabularies — but the racial logic underneath stayed intact. Dr Somdeep Sen of Roskilde University joins The IR thinker to show how concepts such as development, security, and the War on Terror continue to sort the world along racial lines, even when race itself goes unnamed. From NATO's global colour line to China's reproduction of Western hierarchies within the Global South, this conversation maps the hidden architecture of race in contemporary IR.Dr Sen is Associate Professor in International Development Studies at Roskilde University, whose research explores race and racism in international relations, settler colonialism, liberation movements, and postcolonial theory.Selected PublicationsRace (Chapter 9)NATO and the global colour lineDecolonising to Reimagine International RelationsA Postcolonial Critique of EU-Middle East RelationsRace, Racism, and the Teaching of International RelationsChapters00:00 - Introduction02:34 - How IR Erased Race — Deliberately and Systematically07:09 - Why "sanitised" Language Still Encodes Racial Hierarchy10:11 - Race Beyond the North–South Divide15:15 - How Racial Logic Travels Across Regions and Contexts19:02 - Terrorism, Security, and the Racialisation of Threat28:15 - Western Imagination of the Middle East Before and After 9/1134:21 - Why Race Scholarship From the Middle East Gets Overlooked40:00 - Brexit, English Nationalism, and the Return of Racial Politics45:32 - What Decolonising IR Actually Requires47:59 - China as a Non-Western Power Reproducing Racial Hierarchies51:10 - Intra-Southern Hierarchies and Who Gets to Speak for the Global South53:41 - How to Research Race When Race Goes Unspoken58:21 - Underresearched Areas and Future DirectionsFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/