The Wealth Report – Where wealth is moving
The wealthy are moving, and competition to attract them (and their tax revenue) is rising. Liam Bailey speaks to leading mobility expert Kristin Surak. Kristin’s research on golden passports, international migration, nationalism, and politics has been translated into a half-dozen languages, and her latest book, The Golden Passport: Global Mobility for Millionaires, will be published by Harvard University Press in 2023.
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1. Lab crunch: British science needs more space19:59In our first episode of 2024, we talk about Britain’s laboratory shortage, with start-ups actively searching for lab space amid a dearth of supply. Anna Ward is joined by Knight Frank partner and life sciences specialist Jennifer Townsend to discuss the growth of the UK’s £90bn health and life sciences sector. In London alone, the city is struggling to provide biotech and life sciences entrepreneurs with the research space they need. Knight Frank data shows that demand for lab space in the capital stands at 793,000 sq ft, while availability is just 179,295 sq ft – less than a quarter of current requirements. UK-wide, life sciences firms raised £3.3bn in venture capital financing last year, ranking as the third-highest amount over the past ten years. On a year-over-year basis, funding to the sector declined 7% compared to 2022. However, life sciences performed better than the broader UK venture capital landscape, which saw investment drop to £16.1 billion in 2023 - a 44% decrease compared with 2022.Anna also speaks to Deirdre O’Reilly, senior research analyst at Knight Frank, to find out more about the rise in film and TV production spend in the UK and how this is fuelling an increase in film studio take up. If production spending reaches £8.7 billion by 2028, Knight Frank has estimated an additional 2.6 million sq ft of additional studio space will be needed. Deirdre also pinpoints two other key industrial sectors to watch in 2024… You can read the 2023 Knight Frank UK Film and Television Studios report here.
9. Window to 2024: Our property predictions for the next year15:26For our final episode of the year, we look at Knight Frank’s predictions for residential and commercial property in 2024... For a UK take, Anna speaks to Tom Bill, head of UK residential research, Shabab Qadar, London research partner and Flora Harley, head of ESG research. Anna is also joined by our global head of research Liam Bailey, head of UK commercial Will Matthews and head of global residential research Kate Everett Allen to discuss global themes. They share their key predictions for 2024, explore to what extent and how quickly real estate markets will recover, and look at the potential impact of upcoming political elections around the world. They also discuss the pressing need to retrofit and refurbish real estate, with 58% of investors actively looking to acquire poor EPC-performing assets to improve, upgrade and reposition, according to Knight Frank’s latest ESG Property Investor Survey.
8. The great New York rental boom of 202312:31With global residential rents surging at three and a half times their pre-pandemic rate, Liam Bailey speaks to New York property guru Jonathan Miller to assess where rental markets are headed in that city as we move towards 2024.https://content.knightfrank.com/research/357/documents/en/prime-global-rental-index-q3-2023-10751.pdf
7. How are pollution rules impacting housing delivery in England?20:27Anna speaks to Knight Frank rural surveyor Steph Small and Irwin Mitchell partner Sam Knight to find out more about the nutrient mitigation market, which the government just announced fresh funding for.Natural England has established its own nutrient mitigation scheme; however, this is currently only available to developers in the Tees catchment in the North East of England and there is a limited number of credits available.For those developers unable to access this scheme, the only other option is the embryonic private market or relying on their own mitigation methods from wetlands to sustainable urban drainage.The government is aiming to both expand the Natural England programme and speed up the development of private sector schemes.Steph and Sam explain why mitigation options are not straightforward and highlight that the greatest shift will be when water companies upgrade wastewater treatment works to reduce harmful nutrient pollution.But this is still some way off, with the government proposing the upgrades are completed by 2030.
6. How are Europe’s ski resorts facing up to snow shortages?16:28In our latest Ski Property Report, a third of respondents to our sentiment survey said the long-term resilience of a ski resort is very important to them and influences their decision on where to buy. In this episode of Intelligence Talks, we look at the impact of climate change on Alpine property markets. Anna speaks to Kate Everett-Allen, head of global residential research at Knight Frank, and international residential partner Alex Koch de Gooreynd.They discuss how ski resorts are innovating to respond to snow shortages as well as driving more tourism through a broader range of year-round activities. In addition, they share which resorts are likely to be the most resilient in the long-term, drawing on key findings in the report which includes analysis of ski areas over 2,000 metres with north-facing slopes across key French and Swiss resorts. You can read the full report here: www.knightfrank.com/skireport
5. Testing Britain’s greenest homes on climate change - from Scandinavian winter to Saharan summer16:11Rishi Sunak may have weakened a number of green commitments, but the property sector is pressing on with key net zero priorities. From residential to commercial buildings, Britain’s built environment currently accounts for a quarter of the country’s carbon footprint. Developers are exploring ways to build more energy efficient homes that can withstand the most extreme climates. Meanwhile, property investors are more concerned than ever about ESG due diligence, with a growing focus on how buildings are performing now rather than just understanding their future potential. Anna speaks to Barratt’s technical and innovation director, Oliver Novakovic, who is testing new technology at the Energy House 2.0 in Manchester on preparing homes for climate change. She also talks to Knight Frank’s head of ESG research, Flora Harley, who has just carried out a survey of 45 pan-European investors on their approach to net zero. https://content.knightfrank.com/research/2740/documents/en/sustainability-series-esg-property-investor-survey-q3-2023-10532.pdf
4. How do Britain’s build-to-rent schemes measure up?15:31The build-to-rent market has made serious inroads into Britain’s property sector, with the number of completed units more than tripling to over 82,000 units in the last five years. While the scale of this remains small relative to overall housing delivery, all signs point to a strong growth trajectory ahead. But how do the completed schemes measure up so far? To find out, Knight Frank has launched a new Resident Experience Index alongside UK property developer Moda which, for the first time, provides some insight into how resident experience drives investment value across the sector. It tracks key metrics from the sustainability of a scheme to the number of amenities on site, affordability, accessibility and health and wellbeing. Anna speaks to Lizzie Breckner, associate in Knight Frank’s residential investment research team, and Emma Shone, corporate PR manager at Moda, who were both involved in the launch of the new index. They discuss the standout results from the study, the most important factors driving resident experience and what future build-to-rent homes will look like. You can download Knight Frank’s Build to Rent resident experience report here: https://www.knightfrank.com/research/report-library/build-to-rent-resident-experience-index-2023-10495.aspx
3. How UK developers are weathering the economic storm15:53Britain is facing a looming supply crunch for new homes. In this episode, we explore how housebuilders and developers across the ‘living sectors’, including student, seniors, build to rent, and single-family housing, are responding to the current economic uncertainty and high cost of debt. Anna speaks to Knight Frank partner and head of development partnerships Charlie Dugdale, and associate in our living investment research team, Katie O’Neill. They also discuss how the current economic slowdown is impacting the ‘absorption rate’ - the number of homes that can be sold into the market in a particular period - how master developers are seeking a greater diversity in the type of housing being built, including build to rent and more social and affordable options, the rise of housing partnerships between housebuilders and living operators, and inefficiencies in the planning system.
2. The branded residence opportunity20:26While global real estate markets are feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, the branded residences market is enjoying something of an upswing. Liam Bailey is joined by The Four Season’s James Price to unpack the data on a sector set to grow by 12% per year globally each year up to 2026.