Intelligence Talks

In this second of three post-Budget specials, Tom Bill is joined by Michael Brown from Pepperstone to unpack a chaotic week for Westminster, the markets and the wider economy. From the unprecedented OBR leak and the Treasury’s credibility problem to front-loaded spending, back-loaded tax rises and why gilt markets may be calm for now, Michael explains what really mattered in the Budget, what the Bank of England is likely to do next, and why political risk may be the biggest story of 2026.

In this Budget Special, Tom Bill is joined by Nimesh Shah, CEO of tax advisory firm Blick Rothenberg, to break down why he sees this as a “once-in-a-generation” Budget, what the new mansion tax signals for future wealth taxation and how the extra 2% on rental income and frozen thresholds squeeze landlords and middle earners. They also discuss whether markets will accept a fiscal plan that spends upfront and pushes major tax increases into the later years of the Parliament - plus the emoji that Nimesh chooses to sum it all up.

What market is poised to outpace even the mighty New York? This week the global Head of Research at Knight Frank, Liam Bailey, is joined by President & CEO of Miller Samuel, Jonathan Miller. Jonathan is a legendary New York housing market expert whose insights shape understanding of luxury real estate trends nationwide.Using fresh data from the Knight Frank Global Super-Prime Intelligence Report, Liam and Jonathan explore how billionaires and centi-millionaires are reshaping global housing markets, and what the latest quarter’s slowdown really means.Across 12 leading global hubs, 474 residential sales above $10 million took place in Q3 2025, totalling $8.5 billion. But with volumes down 21% and values down 29% on Q2, the big question is: what’s driving the shift?Jonathan describes a market in rude health: despite a slowdown in Q3 sales, Wall Street continues to fuel the luxury sector, and Q4 is shaping up to be a bumper season in the city.Meanwhile, in Miami and Palm Beach, demand remains strong but low inventory is holding back transactions. Liam draws parallels with London, where, spoiler alert, wealth taxes are not helping super-prime volumes, and with Dubai, where, as in Miami, limited stock is constraining sales.Looking ahead to 2026, New York appears set for a strong run. But one market in particular is poised to outpace even the Big Apple… tune in to find out which.For more global wealth and property insight: Subscribe to Liam’s twice-weekly Global Property Briefing here: https://preferences.knightfrank.com/subscribe-to-global-property-briefing

With tax speculation dominating the headlines, is Prime Central London really stalling or are there opportunities for buyers? Tom Bill speaks to Stuart Bailey, Head of Prime Central London Sales at Knight Frank, about which taxes in the Budget would most impact the market, what buyers should expect in terms of future price growth, how many people are leaving the capital and which areas of London are back on the radar.

What’s happening behind the scenes as the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility prepare for the 26 November Budget? Tom Bill is joined once again by Michael Brown from Pepperstone to share their insights.From the OBR’s “observation window” to the Treasury’s 11 Bloomberg terminals, Tom and Michael discuss how gilt yields, labour market data, and fiscal headroom are shaping Rachel Reeves’ options — and what all of this means for property taxes, mortgage rates, and the housing market.

Carol Lewis, Property Editor of The Times and The Sunday Times, explains how to navigate the flood of property headlines in the run-up to November’s Budget. Carol speaks to Tom about the Treasury’s use of “trial balloon” tax stories, why house price data often looks contradictory, and how readers can distinguish speculation from fact. She also gives a behind-the-scenes view of how the media prepares for Budget day, stressing the journalist’s role as messenger rather than market shaper.

Former No.10 policy insider James Nation joins Tom to decode the run-in to the 26 November Budget: OBR round-one forecasts, the 10-year gilt “observation window”, and why a productivity downgrade matters for the property market. We ask how credible this summer’s property tax rumours feel, possible sweeteners, and what a “successful” Budget looks like. Plus: Treasury vs Downing St culture, Labour’s deputy leadership race and whether Starmer and Reeves are still in post next year.

What would happen if the rich left the UK? In this episode of Intelligence Talks, host Tom Bill is joined by Leslie MacLeod-Miller, CEO of Foreign Investors for Britain to dig into what the governments changes in taxation mean for non-doms, and what the knock on affect could be for the rest of the country.Listen to find out what Leslie thinks needs to happen to keep money in the UK and what impact tax changes are already having on the UK prime market.Subscribe to Knight Franks research note here: https://preferences.knightfrank.com/subscribe-to-research?_gl=1*19v1skm*_gcl_au*NDIxNTA1ODA3LjE3NTUyNjc3ODg.