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IFS Zooms In: The Economy
What options does Rachel Reeves have for the Budget?
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The budget coming up in a few weeks will be one of the big moments for Labour to set out their policy agenda.
Over the summer, the government set out what it considers a difficult public finance picture - including a supposed £22bn ‘black hole’. The Labour manifesto promised big improvements to public services, and the prime minister has since promised no return to austerity. Meanwhile, the chancellor has promised that the upcoming Budget will be a ‘Budget for investment’. And there’s those promises to get debt falling, and not to raise the main rates of income tax or corporation tax, or to raise national insurance or VAT at all.
So how could they meet their fiscal targets while also fixing public services and increasing investment? What is the public finance picture looking like? And will there be enough resource to tackle some of the challenges facing the UK economy?
To explore these questions, Paul is joined by Carl Emmerson and Ben Zaranko.
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33. How can we make government more productive?
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46:59||Season 5, Ep. 32In the recent budget, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, announced a £40 billion tax increase, pushing tax as a share of national income to an all time UK high.Just 6% of that came from an increase in inheritance tax, and just a small fraction of that will come from farmers. And yet it is the tax increase on farmers that has dominated the news headlines. But beyond the change to agricultural reliefs, there were some other big reforms as well - to pensions and business reliefs.So to discuss how inheritance tax actually changed in the budget, who will be affected and whether it was a good idea, Paul is joined by Helen Miller and David Sturrock, colleagues at the IFS.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts31. How big are the UK's demographic challenges?
48:03||Season 5, Ep. 31At the end of October, the ONS announced that the fertility rate in England and Wales had fallen to 1.44 births per woman in 2023 - the lowest figure since records began in 1938. What will this mean for the population make-up of the country? What other big demographic shifts are occurring? Why is this trend occurring across the developed world? And what will its implications be for the public finances?To discuss those questions, Paul is joined by Melinda Mills, Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Nuffield Professor of Demography at Oxford. And by Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS and one of the leading experts on the UK's public finances.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts30. What does the Budget mean for the UK?
41:12||Season 5, Ep. 30117 days after Labour took office, Rachel Reeves has finally delivered her Budget.From tax rises and fiscal rules, to public services and investment, we'll take a tour around all of the big announcements. Paul is joined by Helen Miller and Ben Zaranko, colleagues at the IFS.Find out more: https://www.ifs.org.uk/29. LIVE: How can Rachel Reeves make her first Budget a success?
50:05||Season 5, Ep. 29In our first ever live episode, we're going to look at how Rachel Reeves can make her first Budget a success.It will have been 117 days since Labour took power before we finally hear what is in the Budget - in that time we’ve heard about £22bn 'black holes' and the difficult economic situation the UK faces. We’re going to think a bit about some of the challenges facing the Chancellor, what she can learn from previous Budgets and how she can navigate these complexities.Paul is joined by colleague Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS, Lord Stewart Wood, a Labour peer and former member under Tony Blair’s government of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Council of Economic Advisers, and Stephen Bush, associate editor and columnist at the Financial Times.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts27. Should the Chancellor raise capital gains tax?
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33:42||Season 5, Ep. 26Sign up to our live event: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-how-make-your-first-budget-successCurrently, around 4.3 million children - that’s around 30% of all kids - are living in relative poverty. Since 2010 that figure has risen by over 700,000 and the new government has made tackling child poverty one of its key policy objectives, with a cross-government strategy due to be published in 2025. In today’s episode, we’ll explore the factors contributing to this increase in child poverty, including changes to the benefits system, housing challenges, and the broader economic context. We’ll look at the long-run impacts that child poverty has and examine the potential policy options available to reduce child poverty.To do that, Carl is joined by Tom Waters and Christine Farquharson.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts25. Are people saving enough into their pensions?
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