IFS Zooms In: The Economy

>>> Sign up to our live event: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-zooms-live-look-ahead-budget <<<The government has announced a major change to the state pension triple lock. The new system will continue to protect pensions against inflation and guarantee increases of at least 2.5%, but changes how increases in earnings feed through into the state pension over time.So how will the new triple lock actually work? Why did the existing system create a “ratchet effect” in pension spending? How does the new approach address that problem, and what role does the 2.5% guarantee still play?Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to explain what is changing, what it could mean for pensioners and the public finances, and the questions the reform leaves unresolved.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

The number of people receiving disability benefits has risen sharply in recent years, pushing up government spending and prompting renewed debate about how the system should work.In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Eduin Latimer and Tom Waters to explain how Personal Independence Payment (PIP) works, who receives it and why claims have increased. They examine the choices facing the government as the Timms Review considers the future of disability benefits. Should PIP remain a universal cash benefit? Could more support be provided in kind? Should eligibility depend more on the severity or type of a person’s condition? And what would different reforms mean for claimants and the public finances? The discussion explores the difficult trade-offs involved in reforming disability benefits - including who receives support, what form that support takes and how much the government spends.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

Social care reform has challenged successive governments for decades. Now, the government wants to create a national care service and has launched a new push to find a long-term solution.But how does social care actually work? Who currently pays for it, and why can some people face such large and unpredictable costs? What pressures does the system place on councils? And what would meaningful reform cost?Helen Miller is joined by Andrew Dilnot, former Chair of the Commission on Funding of Care and Support and former IFS Director, and David Phillips, an Associate Director at IFS, to explain the problems with England’s social care system, the options for reform and why finding a solution has proved so difficult.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

Immigration is one of the most debated issues in British politics. But what impact does it actually have on the economy and the public finances?We speak to Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford and Interim Chair of the Migration Advisory Committee, and IFS economist Max Warner about how migration to the UK has changed, and what that means for the government’s finances.Which types of migrants contribute most to the public finances, and which cost the government more? How does immigration affect the wider economy? And with net migration falling sharply, what could lower migration mean for the OBR’s forecasts - and the choices facing the Chancellor at the Budget?Madeleine’s new book, What Is Immigration Policy For?, is available from Bristol University Press.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

Land value tax has long been popular with economists. Unlike most taxes, it doesn’t discourage people from working, investing or building - and in theory it can raise money without distorting economic decisions. So why don’t we use it more?In this episode, Helen is joined by Stuart Adam and Ben Zaranko to explain how a land value tax would work, who would gain and lose from introducing one, and why its effects can be very different for existing landowners and future buyers.We also look at some of the big practical and political questions. Can land really be valued accurately? Would the tax be fair? Could it replace council tax, stamp duty or other taxes? And should governments capture more of the increase in land values created by new infrastructure or planning permission?Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

Business rates have long been blamed for the decline of Britain’s high streets. Shops and pubs face large bills, while online retailers can operate from cheaper out-of-town warehouses. So surely cutting business rates would help?Not necessarily. Helen Miller is joined by IFS tax expert Stuart Adam and Observer economics editor Ben Zaranko to explain why business rates are widely misunderstood. They discuss who really bears the cost of the tax, why cutting rates could simply lead to higher rents, whether pubs and high streets deserve special treatment, and how a growing patchwork of reliefs and exemptions has made the system increasingly complicated.They also ask what is actually wrong with business rates - and why taxing land rather than the buildings sitting on it might offer a better solution.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

More young people than ever are going to university, but the financial stakes have also risen. Many graduates begin their careers with around £50,000 of student debt and could make repayments for up to 40 years. While some degrees deliver substantial lifetime earnings gains, others may leave graduates financially worse off than if they had not attended university.Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Christine Farquharson and Kate Ogden to examine what the evidence tells us about the financial returns to higher education.They discuss why graduate outcomes vary so widely across subjects, institutions and students; whether low-earning courses provide value to taxpayers; and whether government should restrict funding for degrees with poor financial outcomes.They also consider how artificial intelligence and wider labour-market disruption could affect today’s students, and whether historic earnings data can reliably guide decisions about careers that may last into the 2070s.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts

Andy Burnham is preparing to enter Downing Street, but he will inherit a government facing tight fiscal constraints and a series of difficult decisions.The public finances remain under pressure, debt interest spending is high, and commitments not to raise the main rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT limit some of the most obvious ways of raising revenue. At the same time, the new Prime Minister will need to make choices about departmental spending, defence, welfare, social care and the cost of living.How much flexibility will Burnham have over taxes, borrowing and public spending? Which commitments could be maintained, and which might need to be scaled back? And will a change of Prime Minister create space for a different economic strategy - or reveal the same underlying constraints?Christine Farquharson is joined by IFS colleagues Max Warner and Tom Waters to examine the economic choices facing the incoming Prime Minister.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts