Hold Your Fire!

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump administration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of European troops in Ukraine. They assess the role of France in Europe and debates around extending its nuclear umbrella to eastern Europe. They also discuss whether the Trump administration’s unorthodox diplomacy might bear fruit in the Middle East.  For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year conflict with the PKK (a group designated as terrorist by Ankara and several Western capitals). They unpack how the PKK’s leadership in northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains has reacted to Öcalan’s call and how the conflict has influenced Ankara’s relations with Baghdad. They discuss implications for north-eastern Syria, where the PKK-linked Syrian Democratic Forces have clashed with Türkiye-backed groups, whether the efforts by Syria’s new leadership to integrate the SDF into a new state structure can address Ankara’s security concerns and Israel’s potential support for the SDF. They also assess how the public in Türkiye has reacted to the latest initiative to end the conflict and where the process might be headed next.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our visual explainer “Türkiye’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer”, our latest War & Peace podcast “After Assad – Implications for Türkiye in Syria and Beyond” and our Türkiye country page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region.Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.For more, be sure to check out our recent statement “Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Sudan country page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders or NATO membership and Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at the Munich Security Conference. They discuss the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh intended to lay groundwork for further diplomacy to end the Ukraine war and what role Kyiv and Europe might play in future rounds. They assess whether European capitals can step up to shape the future of the continent's security. They also discuss dynamics within President Trump's team, what to make of his statements about the U.S.’s own territorial expansion and his attacks on Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump administration and whether supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s dismissive stance on diplomacy with Washington leaves any room for talks. They look at Iran’s diminished regional influence, given Israel’s hammering of Iran-backed militant groups, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, and whether its increased vulnerability changes its nuclear calculations. They talk about what maximum pressure might entail this time around and whether European capitals might reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, which they can still do before October as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Finally, they assess what a diplomatic initiative to revive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might look like and how regional powers like Saudi Arabia can help.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent EU Watchlist commentary “Test Diplomacy with a Weakened Iran” and our Iran country page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Michael Hanna and Rob Blecher to talk about Donald Trump’s shock proposal for Gaza and its implications for the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Richard first speaks with Mairav, Amjad and Rob about Trump’s plan, which would include relocating Palestinians out of Gaza and placing the territory under U.S. control and how it has been received among Palestinians, Israelis and worldwide. They assess progress made under the first phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, conditions in the strip and prospects of getting to a second phase which includes an Israeli troop withdrawal. They discuss the uptick of violence in the West Bank and the risk of Israel fully annexing the territory. Richard then talks with Michael about how Trump’s remarks on Gaza should be interpreted, as top officials appear to walk some of them back even as Trump doubles down. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more, be sure to read our latest EU Watch List Commentary “Toward a Stronger European Stand on Israel-Palestine”, our statement “Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce”, and our Israel/Palestine country page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes Director Richard Moncrieff to discuss the fall of Goma, the capital of DR Congo’s North Kivu province, to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group and its implications for Kinshasa and the broader region. They unpack the rapid collapse of Congolese forces in Goma, the role of Rwandan troops in the offensive, and how the city’s residents view the M23. They look at the Rwandan army’s presence in the Kivus, Kigali’s strategic interests there and its shift from denying involvement to justifying it. They talk about DRC President Félix Tshisekedi’s political standing in Kinshasa in the wake of Goma’s fall and how he might respond. Finally, they assess the role of other African leaders and prospects for diplomacy. They also look at Rwanda’s status as a regional power player and why Western capitals have been reluctant to put more pressure on Kigali to stop meddling. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more, be sure to check out our latest statement “Fall of DRC’s Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War”, our EU Watch List Commentary “Turbulence in the DRC Raises Hard Questions for the EU”, and our Great Lakes regional page.