Share
Hold Your Fire!
Back to War in Ethiopia
Season 3, Ep. 3
•
Just a few months back, a humanitarian truce in Ethiopia offered a glimmer of hope that an end might be in sight to the war in and around the country’s northern Tigray region. Fighting pitted the federal government, forces from the Amhara region, bordering Tigray, and Eritrean troops on one hand, against Tigrayan forces on the other. In March, the federal government and Tigrayan leaders announced a cessation of hostilities. Formal peace talks were supposed to follow. But the last few weeks have seen the truce collapse and conflict resume across several front lines, with Tigrayan leaders accusing Eritrean forces of advancing en masse. The return to the battlefield marks another nasty turn in a war that has had a catastrophic human toll – a UN report this week points to war crimes by all sides – but garners relatively little international attention.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood catches up with Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia William Davison to make sense of what’s happening. They discuss why the truce failed to hold over the summer, and notably why Tigrayan leaders chafe at the federal government’s refusal to restore basic services – electricity, telecommunications and banking – in Tigray. They talk about the war’s human toll and this past week’s UN human rights experts’ report. They examine the thorny challenges to peace talks, especially the disputed territory of Western Tigray, part of the region since the 1990s but captured by Amhara forces in the war’s early days. They talk about Eritrea’s role and whether the Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki would accept any deal that left the Tigrayan leadership in place. They also talk about both sides’ apparent goals – for the Ethiopian government and allied forces, subduing the Tigrayan leadership; for Tigrayan forces, breaking the siege – and why neither is likely to prevail militarily any time soon. Finally, they discuss the prospects for bringing the parties back to the table, and what foreign diplomats involved can do.
For more on the situation in Tigray, check out Crisis Group’s recent statement: Avoiding the Abyss as War Resumes in Northern Ethiopia.
More episodes
View all episodes
14. Fighting on the Cambodia-Thailand Border
36:32||Season 6, Ep. 14In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Matthew Wheeler, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Southeast Asia, about the renewed clashes along the Thailand-Cambodia border. They explore the origins of the long-running dispute and the triggers for the latest round of fighting, which has shattered a ceasefire reached in Malaysia in late July and displaced more than half a million people. They examine calculations in Bangkok and Phnom Penh, the rising nationalist sentiment in Thailand, and the fallout from a leaked phone call between then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen in June. They also assess diplomacy to end the fighting, Malaysia’s mediation, and President Donald Trump’s role in brokering the July truce. As fighting continues despite Trump’s claim to have forged another ceasefire, they discuss why a quick de-escalation looks less likely this time around.For more, check out Matthew’s analyst’s notebook, “Ceasefire Collapses as Heavy Fighting Erupts along Cambodia-Thailand Border”, as well as our Cambodia and Thailand pages.12. UN stamps Trump plan, Gaza in Limbo, Saudi Crown Prince in Washington
01:00:37||Season 6, Ep. 1211. At Home and Away: President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Year in Power in Syria
44:34||Season 6, Ep. 11In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for dialogue promotion, to discuss Syria’s transition after the fall of the Assad regime and the political evolution of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. They talk about al-Sharaa’s recent trip to the White House and Washington’s evolving Syria policy and sanctions relief. They examine how life has changed under Syria’s new leadership and the daunting task the authorities face in unifying the country’s armed groups, including efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the north east. They also delve into outbreaks of sectarian violence in Alawite and Druze-majority areas, concerns about the political transition’s inclusiveness and Syria’s complicated relations with Israel. Finally, they trace al-Sharaa’s evolution from his militant past to the Syrian presidency and discuss whether domestic headwinds could derail his achievements on the world stage.For more, check out our Syria page.10. Election Standoff Grips Cameroon and Jihadists Squeeze Mali’s Capital
44:22||Season 6, Ep. 10In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Cameroon expert Arrey E. Ntui and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jézéquel. Richard first talks with Arrey about the fallout from Cameroon’s disputed elections, growing public anger toward President Paul Biya – the world’s oldest serving head of state – and opposition protests. They also assess how the political crisis might affect Cameroon’s long-running Anglophone conflict and risks for further escalation. Richard then turns to Jean-Herve to discuss the blockade imposed by the militant group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has cut off fuel supplies to the capital Bamako. They examine why the military has struggled to secure key supply roads, whether the blockade signals a shift in JNIM’s strategy, how it might shape public sentiment toward Mali’s military rulers and whether the blockade paves the way for a jihadist takeover.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Cameroon and Mali pages.9. Drug War or Regime Change? Trump’s Venezuela and Western Hemisphere Policy
44:28||Season 6, Ep. 9This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Phil Gunson and Renata Segura about U.S. military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats and whether Washington could depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Venezuela and Andes expert Phil Gunson and Latin America & Caribbean director Renata Segura about the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. They assess the large-scale military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, officially framed as a counter-narcotics operation but widely seen as part of a broader campaign to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. They unpack U.S. strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats and how effective such measures are in curbing the narcotics trade. They talk about the evolution of U.S. policy toward Venezuela, divisions within Donald Trump’s team over policy and how Venezuelans view the latest escalation. They look at the role of Venezuela’s military and armed groups and how they might respond to foreign intervention. Finally, they consider Washington’s next steps and assess Trump’s approach to the Western hemisphere more broadly and how Latin American leaders view his policies. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our statement “Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela” and our Latin America & Caribbean regional page.8. Special Episode: What Does the RSF’s Seizure of El Fasher Mean for Sudan’s War?
24:30||Season 6, Ep. 8In this update episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn director Alan Boswell about the paramilitary RSF capturing North Dafur’s capital El Fasher, the reports of horrific violence in the city and the implications for the trajectory of Sudan’s war. They discuss how the RSF managed to take control of the city after a siege of more than a year and the situation in El Fasher now amid a worsening humanitarian crisis and reports of mass killings of civilians. They discuss the de facto partition of Sudan with the RSF now controlling most of western Sudan and the army holding the capital Khartoum and the east. They also explore whether the capture of El Fasher may derail U.S.-led efforts to broker a ceasefire.For more, check out our recent episode Can a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan’s War? And our Sudan country page.7. What’s Next for the Houthis in Yemen?
39:46||Season 6, Ep. 7This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Yemen expert Ahmed Nagi about what the ceasefire in Gaza means for the Israel-Houthi conflict, risks of further attacks in the Red Sea and the future of the intra-Yemeni peace process. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Yemen expert, Ahmed Nagi, to discuss where the Israel-Houthi conflict may be headed after the ceasefire in Gaza. They examine the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which the group links to Israel’s assault on Gaza. They assess Israel’s recent attacks in Yemen that killed senior Houthi political and military figures, and how the group is adapting. They also unpack the Houthis’ ties to Tehran, as they have become the most capable actor within Iran’s “axis of resistance”, as well as the group’s sharper rhetoric against Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. Finally, they discuss the standoff between the Houthis and its Yemeni rivals, the state of the internationally recognised government under the Presidential Leadership Council, risks of renewed conflict, and prospects for reviving intra-Yemeni talks.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Yemen country pages.6. Another South Asia Cross-Border Crisis: Afghan and Pakistani Forces Clash
47:08||Season 6, Ep. 6In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert Ibraheem Bahiss and South Asia director Samina Ahmed about clashes this week between Afghan and Pakistani forces. Richard first speaks with Ibraheem about what triggered the latest confrontation, including reported Pakistani strikes on Pakistani militants, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in Kabul and in border regions. They trace the strained relations between Kabul and Islamabad and why the Taliban authorities struggle to address Pakistan’s concerns – with Islamabad accusing the Kabul authorities of sheltering the TTP and allowing cross-border attacks – even as they have reined in other foreign militants. Richard then turns to Samina to discuss the spike in militant violence in Pakistan’s western regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, how Islamabad views possible rapprochement between the Taliban and India, Islamabad’s broader foreign relations – including a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and warmer ties to Washington – and the risk of further clashes.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Afghanistan and Pakistan country pages.5. Can a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan’s War?
46:45||Season 6, Ep. 5In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael, Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and Gulf & Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk about the latest shifts in Sudan’s war and recent diplomatic efforts. They chart recent battlefield developments, including the situation in El Fasher in northern Darfur, where fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is particularly intense amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They examine how the balance of power between the warring parties is evolving, the interests of outside actors supplying arms, and the RSF’s push to establish a parallel government. They also look at diplomatic efforts to end the war, including the recent announcement by the U.S., Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, known as the Quad, outlining a roadmap for peace in Sudan, how the RSF and the Sudanese army are responding, and what the initiative can realistically achieve.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our recent Q&A “All Eyes on the Quad: How the U.S. and Its Partners Can Push for Peace in Sudan”, Alan’s Foreign Affairs piece “Sudan’s War Is the Shape of Things to Come” and our Sudan page.