Hold Your Fire!

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to unpack the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to shore up a fragile ceasefire and open the way for further talks. They discuss what is known about the agreement and its provisions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities, including in Lebanon. They look at the diplomacy behind the deal, the role of regional mediators and what the agreement reveals about decision-making in Tehran. They also discuss the stumbling blocks ahead during the 60-day timeframe the MOU sets for negotiating a more durable arrangement, including on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. Finally, they look at the prospects for a broader regional security dialogue involving states that helped broker the understanding.For more, check out our Iran page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the state of negotiations between the two countries. Richard first speaks with Naysan about continued U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat exchanges, talks over a possible deal, what an initial agreement might entail and whether the confrontation has strengthened Tehran’s hand. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf Arab states’ views of the conflict have shifted and U.S.-Gulf Arab relations. Next, Richard speaks with Mairav about Israel’s perspective, calls within the country’s military and security establishment to return to war, Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and why a change in leadership would not necessarily mean a less hawkish Israeli approach. Lastly, Richard speaks with Michael about U.S. domestic politics around an Iran deal, whether Trump can sell the off-ramp currently on offer and how continued ceasefire violations could still trigger another escalation.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Middle East & North Africa page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi about escalating ethnic violence in Manipur and militancy in India-administered Kashmir. They first discuss Manipur, where fighting between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities has recently drawn in Naga groups, tracing the roots of the conflict, links to older insurgencies and why New Delhi’s neglect has allowed the crisis to fester. They then turn to Kashmir one year after a militant attack killed 26 people and led to a military confrontation between India and Pakistan. They discuss New Delhi’s repressive measures, Kashmiri political alienation and the threat posed by militants in the region. Lastly, they assess how tensions with Pakistan, uncertainty in U.S.-India ties and global turmoil are reshaping India’s strategic outlook.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Wyne, Crisis Group’s Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for U.S.-China and Senior Northeast Asia Analyst William Yang, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. They assess the summit’s broader significance, including what it reveals about Trump’s second-term China policy and the shifting balance of power between Washington and Beijing. They unpack the main points of discussion, from trade and technology to the geopolitical flashpoints in the Gulf and Taiwan. They also examine how Taiwan and other regional capitals are viewing the summit, what China and Taiwan may be learning from recent wars, and where U.S.-China relations could be headed.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our U.S. and China pages.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s European Security director, to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine, more than four years into full-scale war with Russia. They talk about the mood in Kyiv, recent battlefield dynamics and how Ukraine’s military continues to adapt as the war grinds on. They discuss the fallout from the war in the Gulf, including pressure on global missile interceptor stocks and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s diplomatic outreach to Gulf Arab states. They also unpack domestic politics in Ukraine and Russia, including growing criticism of President Vladimir Putin from nationalist circles and Moscow’s anxiety around Victory Day. They also look at Putin’s call for a ceasefire, seemingly motivated by fear that Ukrainian strikes will disrupt Victory Day celebrations. For more, check out our Ukraine page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s deputy Sahel director Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim to discuss a major wave of coordinated attacks by the al-Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Tuareg rebels across Mali. They examine how the offensive unfolded, including the killing of Mali’s defence minister and the fall of the strategic northern city of Kidal. They discuss the nature of the renewed cooperation between JNIM and Tuareg separatists, JNIM’s goals and evolving tactics, and what the attacks mean for the junta’s hold on power and Russia’s role as Bamako’s security partner. They also look at how, on one side, the Burkina Faso and Niger military authorities and, on the other, coastal West African states are responding amid strained relations between the Sahel’s military-led governments and ECOWAS and consider where the crisis may be headed.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our report “Understanding JNIM’s Expansion Beyond” the and our Mali page.