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Massive Economic Damage From Iran War Already Locked In?

Ep. 159

Even if the war in Iran ends tomorrow, the economic damage is already locked in. Oil supply disruptions, bottlenecks in global infrastructure, and long-term production constraints are pushing prices higher and keeping them there. This episode breaks down the key signals, from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to airlines and AI supply chains, that explain why this isn’t a short-term shock but a structural problem.


CHAPTERS 

00:00 The damage is already locked in

00:43 The unknown that could prolong the war

01:35 Information warfare and perception risk

02:41 Why prices won’t fall

04:00 Supply bottlenecks and system stress

05:53 Airlines signal what’s coming

06:30 AI and tech supply chain exposure


SOURCES

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  • 167. Elon Wants Sam Altman Fired, $134B Returned to OpenAI Nonprofit

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  • 164. OpenAI Buys AI Influencers to Fix Broken IPO, Claude Code Exposed & AI Psychosis Gets WORSE

    12:04||Ep. 164
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  • 163. China Says It Doesn't Want Our AI Chips, So Why Are They Smuggling Them?

    14:04||Ep. 163
    One of America's biggest chip companies is indicted for smuggling AI chips to China. That same week, the US government approves selling AI chips to China. In this episode, we break down what's actually going on: China is running elaborate smuggling networks to acquire Nvidia's top AI chips — while publicly insisting it doesn't want American chips at all. And the US, aware of all of this, is now moving to sell China a tier of chips it couldn't legally access since 2022.Most coverage treats this as a trade story or a national security story. We connect both — and show you how China's playbook here mirrors exactly what it's done in EVs and biotech. That context changes everything about how you read the headlines. By the end, you'll understand the core tension driving every decision in this space: what one of America's most powerful companies wants commercially may be fundamentally at odds with long-term US interests. And that gap is exactly where things get dangerous.CHAPTERS00:00 Supermicro indictment and smuggling01:30 Why China still wants top chips03:00 The global smuggling network04:30 Nvidia’s role and incentives06:00 US export policy contradictions08:00 China’s long term strategy10:00 What happens nextSOURCES- Anthropic Accuses Chinese Labs of AI Theft via Model Distillation: https://cyberscoop.com/anthropic-accuses-chinese-labs-ai-distillation-cyber-risk/- China’s Military AI Ambitions Exposed — PLA’s Tech Wishlist: https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-military-ai-wish-list/- US Lawmakers Probe NVIDIA H800 Chips Linked to PLA’s DeepSeek Model: https://chinaselectcommittee.house.gov/media/press-releases/moolenaar-nvidia-products-used-by-deepseek-people-s-liberation-army- NVIDIA Worked to “Co-Design” DeepSeek Model, Lawmaker Claims: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-worked-co-design-deepseek-183501343.html- Opinion: PLA Secretly Buying NVIDIA Chips Despite Export Bans: https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/5630281-nvidia-china-military-chips/- Singapore Arrests Tied to NVIDIA Server Trafficking Case: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/new-charges-for-2-of-the-3-men-allegedly-linked-to-computer-servers-that-likely-contained-nvidia- China’s AI Race Stalls Without NVIDIA Chips: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-ai-race-us-chips-9e74b957?mod=hp_lead_pos10- China Moves AI Model Training Overseas to Access NVIDIA Hardware: https://www.ft.com/content/96fe9898-a3a4-4a33-be1d-da06bdb6cb2b- China’s Tech Giants Relocate AI Training to Dodge U.S. Chip Curbs: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-tech-giants-move-ai-model-training-overseas-tap-nvidia-chips-ft-reports-2025-11-27/- China Aims to Triple AI Chip Output, Cut Dependence on NVIDIA: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-aims-triple-ai-chip-output-reducing-nvidias-dependency-ft-says-2025-08-27/- Senators Push to Halt NVIDIA GPU Exports After Supermicro Scandal: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/us-senators-call-for-a-halt-to-nvidia-gpu-exports-in-the-wake-of-the-super-micro-scandal-looming-chip-security-act-may-put-a-wrench-into-huangs-china-ambitions- New U.S. AI Chip Export Rules Deemed “Strategically Incoherent”: https://www.cfr.org/articles/new-ai-chip-export-policy-china-strategically-incoherent-and-unenforceable- Chip Security Act Advances in Congress — Targeting China Tech: https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/chip-security-bill-advances-house-174234221.html- Supermicro Board Reshuffle Amid Chip Security Scrutiny: https://ir.supermicro.com/news/news-details/2026/Super-Micro-Computer-Announces-Resignation-of-Board-Member-Yih-Shyan-Wally-Liaw/default.aspx- China’s AI Chip Crackdown Deep Dive (Full Explainer): https://youtu.be/mWIkzlUZ_Bo- AI Disruption: What Happened in Biotech & EVs Is Coming for AI: https://youtu.be/9ukVHp69qKs- NVIDIA, Chips & the Future of Global AI Power: https://youtu.be/TL8kWTog4Rw