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Did China Steal ASML's Banned AI Chip Making Tool?
Ep. 194
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Stocks are sliding in a global sell-off led by tech, AI, and chips, with the Nasdaq hit hardest. Fresh off its June 12 IPO, SpaceX has already swung wildly—down about $400B in market cap at one point—with focus now on its upcoming index inclusion and the first window for retail investors to sell. AI geopolitics intensifies as US officials probe whether ASML EUV lithography tech reached China, plus Five Eyes issues dire warning about imminent AI cyber attacks, highlighting stratospherically high US–China and EU–China tensions. What could go wrong?
CHAPTERS
00:00 Tech Sell Off Begins
00:39 SpaceX IPO Whiplash
02:07 ASML Export Control Alarm
04:16 Europe China Trade Bind
05:43 UK Political Revolving Door
07:29 Cold War Chip Escalation
10:21 Rare Earths Flashpoint
11:40 China Domestic Strains
13:42 AI Cyberattack Threats
17:36 Closing Thoughts
IF YOU LIKED THIS, WATCH:
→ SpaceX Just Pulled Off the Most Dangerous IPO Trick Ever: https://youtu.be/zQuGPAJKQiE
→ SpaceX Only Worth $750 Billion, Not $2 Trillion: https://youtu.be/N3YWf7hWk5A
→ US China Secret Cold War Escalates: https://youtu.be/DD3BOZPOHdA
→ China Says It Doesn't Want Our AI Chips, So Why Are They Smuggling Them?: https://youtu.be/uKjWfRgDfRM
→ The Irreversible Cost of Selling Advanced AI Chips to China: https://youtu.be/UphXmFOYUU8
SOURCES & FURTHER READING
ASML, EUV Machines, and the US-China Chip War
• US Officials Warn ASML That China May Have Obtained Its Most Advanced Chip Tool: https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202506191945/asml-shares-slip-on-report-of-us-concern-that-china-has-its-tech
• US Raises Alarm Over ASML's Top Lithography Machine Reaching China: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-tells-asml-it-is-concerned-china-may-have-top-chip-tool-bloomberg-news-2026-06-19/
• Washington Tells ASML It Fears China Has the Crown Jewel of Chip Tech: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-19/us-tells-asml-it-s-concerned-china-may-have-top-chip-tool
US-China Export Controls and Trade Retaliation
• Pentagon's Full List of Banned Chinese Military-Linked Companies: https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jun/08/2003945537/-1/-1/1/ENTITIES-IDENTIFIED-AS-CHINESE-MILITARY-COMPANIES-OPERATING-IN-THE-UNITED-STATES-IN-ACCORDANCE-WITH-SECTION-1260H.PDF
• China Sanctions 10 US Defense Firms: https://apnews.com/article/china-us-sanctions-military-defense-tech-dualuse-1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b
• Critical Minerals Are Now Nearly Impossible to Source From China: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-business-group-says-some-critical-minerals-are-nearly-unobtainable-china-2026-06-10/
• EU-China Trade Deficit Hits Highest Level in Years: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_trade_with_China_-_latest_developments
AI Cybersecurity and State-Sponsored Attacks
• Five Eyes Intelligence Agencies Issue Rare Public Warning on AI Cyberattacks: https://www.cyber.gov.au/about-us/view-all-content/news/five-eyes-cyber-security-agencies-statement
• How Nation-State Hackers Tunneled Into America Through Home Routers: https://www.wsj.com/tech/cybersecurity/how-hackers-found-a-back-door-into-the-american-living-room-c117cb9f?mod=hp_lead_pos10
• Hidden Audio Commands Can Hijack AI Voice Models With 96% Success Rate: https://spectrum.ieee.org/voice-ai-audio-attacks
• Full Research Paper: Imperceptible Audio Prompt Injection Against Large Audio-Language Models: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.14604v1
China's Domestic Economy and Political Fragmentation
• China's GDP Data Masks Growing Structural Weaknesses at Home: https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/weekly/2026/vw202616_1/
• Youth Unemployment and the 'Lying Flat' Generation Reshaping China's Social Fabric: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-college-grads-lying-flat-zombie-photos-youth-unemployment-2023-7
• The Structural Forces Shattering Britain's Two-Party Political System: https://www.wsj.com/world/uk/the-forces-that-broke-the-two-party-system-in-the-u-k-30137b8a?mod=hp_lead_pos1
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12:11||Ep. 204Oil just crossed $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, Red Sea shipping is threatened, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest point since 1983. That energy shock is colliding with an even bigger problem: Nikkei Asia estimates that five US tech giants have accumulated $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations tied largely to the AI infrastructure buildout. If AI utilization does not grow fast enough, who absorbs the cost in a world with more inflation and higher energy costs?CHAPTERS00:00 Oil Hits $10000:55 Hormuz and Red Sea Pressure01:45 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crisis03:30 SPR Infrastructure Breakdown04:45 AI CapEx Keeps Rising05:30 Google Free Cash Flow Turns Negative06:20 $1.65T Off-Balance-Sheet Debt07:45 Meta's $420B Hidden Liability08:30 Circular Investment Risk09:30 AI Revenue vs. Projections10:30 Two Crises CollideIF YOU LIKED THIS, WATCH:→ US Just Blocked Iran's Oil As Dubai Builds Secret Port: https://youtu.be/NOXt9AxZqS0?si=bzmQkTWClQhfDv9A→ Iran's Oil Lifeline Just Got Cut Off As War Picks Up Again: https://youtu.be/cWBSi22gNjw → Bad AI Loans Crater Blue Owl As Claude Code's Exposed & OpenAI Buys A Better Reputation: https://youtu.be/7wsvg4lRDXU?si=cvjGsghnjBt0TUWZ→ Sam Altman Offered US 5% of OpenAI, Plus Competitors He Doesn't Own: https://youtu.be/zB-EYL6UIfs?si=i5293RBTQLun6Q-jSOURCES & FURTHER READINGHidden AI Debt and Off-Balance-Sheet Risk• Five US Tech Giants Carry $1.65T in Hidden AI Debt: https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-giants-hidden-debts-soar-to-1.65tn-on-opaque-ai-funding• Oracle Faces $7B Guarantee Demand for Wisconsin AI Data Center: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/oracle-faces-potential-7-billion-104844370.html• Inside Google's Frozen Chip Bet on AI Efficiency: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-plans-new-frozen-chip-run-ai-models-efficiently• Big Tech's AI Financing Risks Detailed by FT: https://www.ft.com/content/822628c5-4f9c-47db-bd27-f3ad7f841700?syn-25a6b1a6=1US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Under Strain• Frequent Oil Draws Push America's Strategic Reserve to Breaking Point: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/frequent-oil-draws-from-u-s-strategic-reserve-push-old-system-to-breaking-point-7fb8c421• Oil Executives Sound Alarm on Dwindling US Stockpiles: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/oil-executives-are-sounding-the-alarm-over-dwindling-stockpiles-ad0f6928?mod=article_inlineIran War and Shipping Route Disruption• CENTCOM Completes Latest Strikes Against Iran: https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4553225/centcom-completes-latest-strikes-against-iran/• UKMTO Maritime Advisory: Red Sea Shipping Threat Update: https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-074-jmic-advisory-note-21-july.pdf?rev=78818155c2d9471c943c4ac8e7cde703?ftag=YHF4eb9d17
203. Larry Ellison AI Debt Quietly Destroys Paramount-Warners
11:28||Ep. 203A judge just froze the $110B Paramount–Warner Bros. merger after California and filed an antitrust lawsuit. But the real threat to this historic media deal isn't the courtroom: it’s $79B in toxic debt.CHAPTERS00:00 Judge Freezes $110B Merger00:53 12-State Antitrust Lawsuit02:24 Broken Theatrical Promises03:45 WGA Sues to Block Deal04:27 Paramount's $650M Ticking Fee05:43 $79B Debt Explained07:14 Oracle Funds the Deal08:50 AI CapEx Drains Oracle09:28 Foreign Ownership Wildcard09:59 What California Actually WantsIF YOU LIKED THIS, WATCH:→ "Paramount Just Gave Half of US TV to Foreign Investors": https://goodrevenue.io/hollywood-gulf-states-foreign-ownership-paramount-warner-brothers→ "Allbirds Rebrands As AI While OpenAI Pulls Back, What's Really Going On?": https://goodrevenue.io/allbirds-newbird-ai-rebrand-gpu-leasingSOURCES & FURTHER READINGCourt Filings and Legal Actions• TRO Order Freezing the Paramount-Warner Merger: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28497890/judge-order-tro-paramount-wb.pdf• California AG Redacted Complaint Against the Merger: https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press-docs/Redacted%20Paramount%20Warner%20complaint%20%20-%20file%20stamped.pdf• California AG Memorandum Supporting TRO Motion: https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press-docs/redacted-memorandum-points-and-authorities-iso-motion-tro.pdf• WGA Complaint Against the Paramount-Warner Merger: https://www.wga.org/uploadedfiles/news_and_events/public_policy/wga-v-paramount-warner-bros-complaint.pdf• DOJ Merger Guidelines Overview: https://www.justice.gov/atr/merger-guidelines/overview• FCC Order on the Paramount-Warner Deal: https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-411A1.pdfThe Merger Lawsuit• Paramount's Official Response to the State AG Challenge: https://www.paramount.com/press/state-attorneys-general-challenge-to-proposed-merger-defies-evidence-based-antitrust-enforcement-and-must-be-rejected-delay-in-closing-of-transaction-only-benefits-big-tech-and-harms-consumers-and-hollywood-talent• Semafor: Paramount Races to Reassure California Ahead of Lawsuit: https://www.semafor.com/article/05/12/2026/paramount-seeks-to-calm-californias-creatives-and-a-litigious-attorney-general• AP News: Federal Judge Halts Merger for Two Weeks: https://apnews.com/article/warner-bros-paramount-injunction-361fa669019e0053cf6d4513e6e275e3?• ProPublica's Revelations on the FCC and the Merger: https://www.npr.org/2026/07/18/nx-s1-5895094/propublicas-revelations-on-the-fcc-and-paramount-warner-bros-dealThe Merger's Debt Crisis and Financial Risk• WSJ: The $80B Debt Cloud Hanging Over the Warner Deal: https://www.wsj.com/business/media/the-80-billion-debt-cloud-hanging-over-david-ellisons-warner-deal-aaf8aabd?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1• Yahoo Finance: Paramount Debt to Reach $79 Billion After Warner Deal: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paramount-debt-reach-79-billion-203121713.html• Variety: Why Paramount and HBO Max Cannot Catch Netflix Alone: https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/paramount-warner-bros-merger-hbo-max-catch-up-netflix-disney-amazon-1236745942/• Deadline: David Ellison on Cost Savings and AI as WBD Merger Closes: https://deadline.com/2026/03/david-ellison-warner-bros-discovery-cost-savings-growth-1236769564/Oracle's Debt Crisis and AI Spending• Yahoo Finance: Oracle Stock Crash Is Embarrassing for Larry Ellison: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/oracles-stock-crash-looks-embarrassing-for-billionaire-founder-larry-ellison-131809503.htmlFull list:
202. SpaceX Below IPO: Banks Say Buy, Bond Market Says Junk
09:02||Ep. 202SpaceX dropped below its IPO price for the first time today. But the real warning is coming from the bond market.This episode examines the gap between Wall Street’s bullish SpaceX targets and debt pricing that reflects junk-bond risk. We break down the company’s stock volatility, financial outlook, negative cash-flow concerns, Starlink’s competitive position, Amazon’s challenge, China’s space ambitions, and the market mechanics that helped support SpaceX’s valuation.The central question: is SpaceX being valued on future fundamentals—or on hype that the bond market is already questioning?CHAPTERS00:00 SpaceX Drops Below IPO00:56 Banks Push $300 Targets01:37 Bond Market Says Junk02:17 Index Fund Trap03:00 Starlink's Real Numbers04:01 Orbital Data Centers Debate04:32 Tesla SpaceX Merger04:48 Amazon's Leo Threat05:08 Starlink vs. Competition05:32 China's Reusable Rocket06:52 Starlink Targets Telcos07:40 40-Year IPO DataIF YOU LIKED THIS, WATCH:→ SpaceX Just Pulled Off the Most Dangerous IPO Trick Ever: https://goodrevenue.io/spacex-ipo-index-fund-trap → Trump Just Gave Ukraine a License to Build Patriot Missiles — Lockheed Had No Say: https://goodrevenue.io/ukraine-pac-3-license-nato-defense-industrial-base→ Iran's Oil Lifeline Just Got Cut Off As War Picks Up Again:https://youtu.be/cWBSi22gNjwSOURCES & FURTHER READINGSpaceX Valuation, IPO Performance and Bond Market Warnings• Wall Street Is Ignoring the Bond Market's SpaceX Warning: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wall-street-ignoring-bond-market-145507649.html• UBS Says Buy SpaceX Ahead of Starship Launch: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/buy-spacex-shares-ahead-of-this-weeks-starship-launch-says-ubs.html• How SpaceX's IPO Got Into Your Index Fund: https://www.ft.com/content/3a023b95-66c3-41e1-b0ce-df752a499541• SpaceX Bonds Signal Junk Despite Investment-Grade Rating: https://www.ft.com/content/ea0a1a37-75a0-4658-93c1-d58bccaacf2b?syn-25a6b1a6=1Satellite Internet Competition: Amazon Leo vs. Starlink• Amazon Now Has Enough Satellites to Launch Leo This Year: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/amazon-has-deployed-enough-satellites-to-launch-leo-service-this-year.html• Amazon Leo Reaches 375 Satellites After Latest Launch: https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/project-kuiper-satellite-rocket-launch-progress-updates• Why Verizon and AT&T Stocks Fell the Week Starlink Targeted Telecom: https://www.barrons.com/articles/verizon-stock-price-spacex-starlink-risk-dad1fac9China's Space Program and Economic Pressures• China's Long March 10B Lands Successfully in Spaceflight Milestone: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinas-long-march-10b-rocket-successfully-launches-and-lands-in-a-global-spaceflight-milestone/• China's Reusable Rocket Win Sharpens US Space Rivalry: https://www.wsj.com/tech/china-successfully-launches-reusable-rocket-in-a-win-for-space-program-a891c5c6• China's Economy Slows More Than Expected in Q2: https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-growth-cools-more-than-expected-in-second-quarter-132e0670
201. Dubai Ditches Strait of Hormuz As Iran War Rages
04:51||Ep. 201The US restarted its naval blockade of Iranian ports July 14 and announced a 20% toll on all Strait of Hormuz cargo. Oil blew past $80 the same day. CENTCOM and Iran have been trading strikes all week, and Dubai is quietly building an eastern port to bypass the strait entirely.CHAPTERS00:00 US Restarts Iran Blockade00:50 The 20% Hormuz Toll01:21 CENTCOM vs. Iran Strikes02:02 Oil Surges Past $8002:32 Dubai's Eastern Bypass Port03:25 UAE Breaks From OPECIF YOU LIKED THIS, WATCH:→ Iran's Oil Lifeline Just Got Cut Off As War Picks Up Again: https://goodrevenue.io/iran-oil-squeeze-china-peak-demand-hormuz→ Iran War Costs $300 Billion MORE Plus Energy & Weapons Stockpiles: https://goodrevenue.io/us-iran-mou-energy-prices-munitions-crisis→ UAE Exits OPEC Gas Prices Get Worse Before They Get Better: https://goodrevenue.io/uae-leaves-opec-oil-prices-iran-war→ Consumer Confidence Hits All Time Low as Gas Hits Record High: https://goodrevenue.io/us-gas-prices-summer-2026-strait-of-hormuzSOURCES & FURTHER READINGUS Naval Blockade and Hormuz Toll• CENTCOM Official Statement: US Forces Resume Naval Blockade Against Iran: https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4542098/us-forces-to-resume-naval-blockade-against-iran/• USNI News: US Reinstates Naval Blockade in Strait of Hormuz: https://news.usni.org/2026/07/13/u-s-reinstates-naval-blockade-in-strait-of-hormuz• Trump's 20% Hormuz Toll Proposal and Iran Blockade Restart Explained: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran-hormuz-strait-charge-reimburse.htmlCENTCOM Strikes and Iran Retaliation• CENTCOM Completes Wave of Strikes Against Iranian Military Targets: https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4541002/centcom-completes-another-wave-of-strikes-against-iran/• CENTCOM Retaliatory Strikes Against Iran: Latest Round Completed: https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4535772/us-forces-complete-new-round-of-retaliatory-strikes-against-iran/• Live Map: Iran War and Gulf Conflict Updates in Real Time: https://iran.liveuamap.com/Gulf Shipping and the Dubai Port Bypass• Dubai Plans New Eastern Port to Reduce Hormuz Strait Dependence: https://www.ft.com/content/1f97b548-1bd8-41c8-8380-043ec688d77a?syn-25a6b1a6=1