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Frontrunner - 8th October 2021

Wheat markets continued to rise this week, supported by strong export trade and uncertainty over Russian wheat export capability. Paris wheat futures have set new contract highs, gaining over 10% in value since the 20th September. So far this season, from 1st July to 4th October, Brussel’s trade data showed the EU had shipped just over eight million tonnes of wheat. This was up by one million tonnes on the week and unofficial vessel counts suggests this is still significantly understated. In the same period last year, just 5.5 million tonnes had been shipped  - albeit from a smaller surplus. Analyst group Strategie Grains estimates the EU will have 31 million tonnes available to export this season, which would leave end of season stocks at minimum levels. Therefore, the current pace is not sustainable and the rising prices need to choke off demand. Romania is the EU’s leading wheat exporter, having now shipped 2.9 million tonnes from its record 11.4 million-tonne crop. At this time last season, had shipped less than 800,000 tonnes.

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