Frontrunner

The latest weekly crop condition and progress report from the US highlights a positive outlook for production potential. Winter wheat maintained a steady condition, seen 56% ‘good/excellent’, which is unchanged on the week. However, this is significantly higher than the same period last year when just 27% of the crop was seen looking this well. Kansas is the number one producing state and edged one point higher on the week, to 49% ‘good/excellent’. Spring wheat and corn planting is off to a good start with the US spring wheat area 3% planted, as expected, up from 1% last week and last year, and unchanged from the five year average. The US corn area is 3% planted, which is the same as last year but ahead of the five-year average of 2%. It is important to bear in mind that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) sees US farmers notably cutting their corn planted area to just over 90 million acres, down from 94.6 million acres last year.During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) presented a bullish set of data before the Easter weekend and sent futures prices higher. On 1st March, US wheat stocks were marginally higher than average expectations at 1.087 billion bushels versus 1.044 billion bushels. This was also up on last year which was 0.941 billion bushels.The surprises for the market didn’t come from the stocks though, rather it was the lower-than-expected 2024 US corn and US winter wheat prospective planted areas. Winter wheat is seen down to 34.135 million acres which is at the bottom end of trade guesses - these ranged from 34 million acres to 38.37 million acres and notably the Ag Forum estimated 34.425 million acres. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

World wheat futures markets enjoyed a short-lived price spike at the end of last week. Early on Monday, follow-through buying took Paris futures to their highest since 7th February and 22 euros above the contract low seen earlier this month. Prices rallied following the news that the largest private Russian grain exporter was in dispute with Russian authorities and was not being issued with the appropriate documentation to allow vessels loaded with grain to sail to their end destinations. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Speculative fund short covering has driven wheat futures higher in recent days, led primarily by gains in the Paris market. The May 2024 contract breached €200/t on Tuesday which was the market’s highest level since 27th February 2024. The funds had built record short positions in the Paris wheat market but improved physical wheat demand, Black Sea supply concerns and EU political moves have been the catalysts to trigger a need to reduce the exposure to potentially higher prices.  During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) late last Friday afternoon, trimming end stocks for both world wheat and corn which helped to lift prices. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Earlier this week, both US and French wheat futures fell sharply again and struck new contract lows. Wheat futures have nearly lost half their value from their peak in May 2022 and are under pressure from abundant world wheat supplies and cheaper export sales from Black Sea origins. Offers are reported to have fallen below $200/t FOB – the sterling equivalent of £157/t for milling quality on a vessel at a Black Sea port. Algeria is thought to have taken advantage of these low prices, securing up to one million tonnes for June delivery at $228/t, including all freight costs. This is almost $40/t below the prices the country paid in its previous tender and is most likely Russian origin.During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

So far, 2024 has proven to be disappointing for wheat prices. London wheat futures lost 20% of their value over the first seven weeks of the new year, but in week eight they managed to reverse the trend and for the first time this year closed higher on the week. There was little to be bullish about and the gains were more a desire for speculative traders to lock in profits as wheat futures bounced higher from their contract lows.During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

So far, 2024 has been a bad year for wheat prices under the weight of world grain.This is now heavier according to the International Grains Council who raised its latest world corn production estimate by four million tonnes to a total of 1.234 billion tonnes, now 71 million tonnes up on last year. World wheat production was left unchanged at 788 million tonnes.London wheat futures have lost over 16% of their value since the end of last year and they struck a new contract low earlier this week. Subsequently, a spell of short covering for world markets delivered a £7/t gain and signalled a pause in declining prices. Growers who had set triggers in Frontier's MyFarm online pricing system were notified of this and were able to take advantage of the short reversal in trend.During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg

Late last Wednesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and there were very few changes from January’s numbers. Year-end stocks for both world wheat and corn will be less than estimated in the previous month’s report, but the cuts made were insufficient to halt the slide in wheat prices seen since the beginning of 2024. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfoFor other topical updates and advice from our experts, subscribe to our blog: www.frontierag.co.uk/blog/subscribeFollow Frontier Agriculture on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FrontierAg