Frontrunner

Wheat and corn futures continued to drive higher earlier this week, setting new contract highs. US markets reached their highest level for eight years and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures pushed above $7/bu – a level double their contract low. New crop London wheat futures at their highest had risen over this month by an impressive £35/t. Higher European futures markets reflected concerns for both winter and spring crops following the prolonged period of dry weather and, in places, record low April temperatures impacting on most of northern Europe. However, with strong speculative buying, futures markets had become technically overbought and were overdue a correction. Forecasts for much needed rain seemed to be the trigger for a wave of profit-taking which drove markets sharply lower during the second half of the week. Upbeat wheat production prospects for Romania were another negative element. Romania’s enthusiasm to sell new crop wheat was highlighted in the tender held by Egypt this week.

Persistent cold dry weather affecting much of the US and Western Europe coupled with ongoing Chinese demand drove wheat and corn markets sharply higher this week. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have gained over 8% since last Friday’s close and are trading over $7 per bushel, bringing them to their highest level since May 2014. European new crop wheat futures have been equally impressive, setting new contract highs. London November 2021 wheat futures are now £26/t above their end of March low.US winter wheat crop ratings were unchanged on the week with 53% rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ which is four points below last year. However, subsequent reports from Oklahoma of frost-damaged winter wheat helped galvanise speculative buying. Corn planting reached 8%, which is average for this time of year, but the cold US weather conditions are seen delaying crop establishment and yield potential, therefore adding more demand for depleted old crop supplies. Record low April temperatures coupled with a lack of rain is increasingly concerning for wheat crop production potential in Western Europe.

Wheat markets continued to rise this week, reacting to increasing concerns for wheat crops as dry and very cold weather persists in Western Europe and parts of the US. The latest US drought monitor maps show an increasing area of extreme drought now impacting on over three-quarters of major spring wheat state, North Dakota. However, spring wheat drilling in the state achieved 8% completion by 11th April compared to the 2% average for this time of year. Nationally, spring drilling is 11% complete compared to the 6% average. Dry cold conditions remain in the forecast and US spring wheat futures rallied to new contract highs this week. In contrast, the central southern plains are due rain which will benefit winter crops. The condition of winter wheat crops remains unchanged at 53% rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’. Record low April temperatures have been prevalent in France and the UK. How damaging this has been for cereal crops remains to be seen. With more dry weather forecast for Western Europe, new crop wheat futures rallied to new contract highs. London new crop wheat futures have added a significant £15/t to their values since their lowest point in March, bringing them now to their highest values this season.