Frontrunner - 3rd September 2021

Earlier this week Statistics Canada (StatsCan) updated its country’s wheat crop estimate, now seeing the crop falling to 22.95 million tonnes. This compares to 35.18 million tonnes last year and, if realised, will be Canada’s smallest crop for 14 years. Persistent excessive heat and dryness for much of the growing season has slashed yield potential for Canada; one of the world’s major wheat exporters.

In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its Canadian wheat estimate to 24 million tonnes from 31.5 million tonnes in July. Last season, Canada exported 27.5 million tonnes of wheat and ranked third in wheat volumes shipped, behind Russia and the EU and just ahead of the US. This season’s crop losses will have a major impact on world wheat trade flows and has been one of the primary bullish price drivers for wheat markets. US spring wheat futures are 60% up on the year as a result of tightening quality wheat supplies.

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