Frontrunner - 26th March 2021

World wheat markets have fallen again this week and have now effectively lost all the price gains they made in 2021. London wheat futures fell to their lowest level since the 17th December. In January, fears that Russia would close the door on wheat exports saw Black Sea export prices soar to £300/t free on board (FOB), before including freight costs. Buyers are now harder to find and traders’ offers were reported to have fallen to $250/t searching for demand. Prices have fallen sharply despite strong exports to date for the world’s major producers. Weekly wheat export sales for the US were 344,000 tonnes, taking the season’s total sold to almost 93% of the surplus estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is just ahead of average at this time of year.

From this point, sales only need to average 80,000 tonnes per week to hit the estimate. US weekly corn sales included the 3.8 million tonnes that China bought last week, bringing the total sold to just over 4.6 million tonnes. Over 98% of the USDA’s estimated surplus is sold, which is 25 points on the average at this time. If just 1% of last week’s sales are made each week to the end of the season, the USDA target will be exceeded. 

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