Share

cover art for The far-right falters: Outcomes of the French snap election

Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

The far-right falters: Outcomes of the French snap election

Against all the odds and polls, the French far-right party National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, landed in third place in the second round of the French snap election.  And in a runner-up upset for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, the left-wing alliance New Popular Front took the lead with 182 seats. 

In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the head of ECFR Paris and senior policy fellow Célia Belin to discuss the unexpected results of this snap election. What changed between the first and second round that led to such drastically different results? How are parties organising themselves within their electoral alliances? What are the coalition options for this new distribution in the National Assembly and who is the leading choice for prime minister?  

 

Bookshelf  

Ravage, by René Barjavel 

Represent, directed by Francois Uzan and Jean-Pascal Zadi 

More episodes

View all episodes

  • China’s new ideas: People, power, progress

    44:33
    Following two years of research, ECFR has released its new book, “The Idea of China: Chinese Thinkers on Power, Progress, and People”. Whether demography, AI, feminism, or green transition philosophies, “The Idea of China” seeks to enhance Western understanding of the current discourses and debates within China. After all, a Chinese perspective on these global issues could become one of the country’s leading exports.In the latest episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes his fellow authors – policy fellow Alicja Bachulska, and ECFR Asia programme director and senior policy fellow, Janka Oertel – to discuss the book’s themes: power, progress, and people. How is the global order shifting vis-à-vis China and US competition? In what ways are Chinese thinkers writing and defining progress, and how does this differ from Western conceptions of progress? And what do these thinkers have to say on the demographic future of China?In:Sight China is supported by Stiftung Mercator and the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), Ireland.This episode was recorded on 22 July 2024. BookshelfThe Idea of China, by Alicja Bachulska, Mark Leonard, and Janka Oertel
  • The world after the West: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on India

    42:43
    As a founding member of BRICS and a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, India is a leading middle power. With its strategic geographic and economic position, and historical associations with the nonaligned movement, India cannot be ignored when discussing the world’s rapidly shifting global order.  In this episode of ‘The world after the West’ Re:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, the practice head for south Asia at the Eurasia Group to discuss the role of India in today’s understanding of a new global order. What institutions does India participate in and why? Which of these are most central to its identity? And to what extent are these institutions a counter-reaction to Western hegemony?This episode was recorded on June 25, 2024.
  • NATO at 75: The future of European defence

    32:36
    The 75th NATO summit has begun. Taking place in Washington, this year the conference welcomes new member country, Sweden, with talks focusing on how NATO allies can continue to defend Ukraine from Russian attacks. But, with a presidential election looming in November, it is unclear what the United States’ future position on NATO will be – and, if the US withdraws defence support, how exactly Europe will respond. Based on ECFR’s latest policy brief by distinguished policy fellow and former NATO assistant secretary general, Camille Grand, the question is: can Europe defend itself without America? In this month’s episode of Europe in 30 Minutes, deputy director of ECFR Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Paris office deputy head Camille Lons, Warsaw office deputy head Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Berlin office head Jana Puglierin to discuss the national implications for France, Poland, and Germany, should the US withdraw support for NATO. How can Europe reconcile depending less on the US for its defence, while fostering a strong EU-NATO relationship? What would be the biggest challenges facing the French, Polish, and German militaries? And what impact might this have on Ukraine?  Bookshelf Defending Europe with less America, by Camille Grand 
  • Victory and visions: Labour’s approach to the EU

    31:37
    After 14 years of Conservative government in the United Kingdom, the Labour Party is back. Dissatisfaction with economic and tax policies, various political scandals, and a growing distrust in the Conservative leadership have all contributed to a Labour majority in the UK parliament. And, while the new Labour-led cabinet has already distanced itself from the prospect of rejoining the European Union is now potential for greater economic cooperation and alignment in a post-Brexit EU-UK relationship. In this emergency episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR Council Member and French Europe Minister, Laurence Boone, the last British European commissioner before Brexit, Julian King, and Britain’s former permanent representative to the EU, Ivan Rogers, to discuss what the Labour victory means for the UK and Europe. What are prime minister Keir Starmer’s, and new foreign secretary David Lammy’s, plan for future EU-UK relations? And, in turn, what exactly does Europe expect from the UK? 
  • The World after the West: Nasser Hadian on Iran

    36:40
    Iran plays a key role in the global order. The leadership in Tehran asserts Iran’s role in the Middle East through the backing of allied groups, most notably Hizbullah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, on the global stage, its nuclear program has positioned Iran as an adversary of the West, and as a result the country faces heavy economic sanctions. In the second episode of the Re:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at the University of Tehran, where he served as the director of graduate studies, to delve into Iran’s geopolitical positioning. To what extent does Iran replicate its strategy of regional influence and deterrence on the world stage[PK2] ? How does Iran’s relationships with China and Russia affect the global order? How does Iranian participation in new institutions such as BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation shape both the organisations themselves and Iran’s foreign policy?This podcast is part of Re:Order and was produced with support from Stiftung Mercator.We encountered some technical difficulties during the recording process and apologize for the not optimal sound quality.BookshelfWorks by Javad Zarif
  • The World After the West: Ayşe Zarakol on Turkey

    26:40
    A growth in membership to organisations such as BRICS+, the New Development Bank, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation demonstrates the continued rise of ‘middle powers’ – countries which belong to neither the West nor the global south but play a significant role in the developing world order. This week, the World in 30 Minutes kicks off its new summer podcast series ‘RE:Order: The world after the West’, in which ECFR director Mark Leonard welcome various guests to discuss how middle power countries are using these institutions to advocate for their interests at the global level. For the first episode in the RE:Order series, Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol, professor of international relations at the University of Cambridge and author of “Before the West: the Rise and Fall of Eastern World Order” (2022),  to discuss the framework of  global order beyond its Western conceptions. How do middle power institutions leverage their membership to develop an identity separate to the historically dominant blocs? What can non-Western institutions such as BRICS+ offer dissatisfied ‘middle’ countries? And how is Turkey using these in the context of a new global order?BookshelfBefore the West: the Rise and Fall of Eastern World Order, by Ayşe ZarakolThe Other Great Game: The Opening of Korea and the Birth of Modern East Asia, by Sheila Miyoshi Jager
  • Europe is shifting: EU election results could divide Europe

    37:49
    The results of the European Parliament elections show varying trends across the EU. As predicted by experts in the build-up, Europe’s far-right parties made substantial gains– most notably in France, Germany, and Italy – while election fatigue plagued Bulgaria; the EU election saw its population head to the polls for the sixth time in three years, with the country recording a low turn-out. On the other hand, amid a shift to the right, voters in Poland and Spain demonstrated stronger support for pro-EU parties than perhaps expected.In this week’s special episode of Europe in 30 Minutes, deputy director of ECFR Vessela Tcherneva welcomes the ECFR national office heads of Berlin, Paris, Madrid, Rome, Sofia and Warsaw, Jana Puglierin, Célia Belin, José Ignacio Torreblanca,  Arturo Varvelli, Maria Simeonova, and Piotr Buras, to discuss national implications of the EU elections. What might a weakened Scholz and strengthened Meloni mean for Europe’s future? Which coalitions are likely in Bulgaria? How can Tusk leverage his national support at EU level? And what is Macron’s thinking behind calling France’s snap election?  Bookshelf sectionWinds of change: the EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election, by Susi Dennison, Mats Engström, and Carla Hobbs.
  • NATO and beyond: America’s domestic politics and Ukraine

    32:05
    How is America’s domestic politics impacting the war in Ukraine? Last week, the Biden administration authorised Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to strike within Russia’s borders – but, beyond July’s NATO Summit, the United States’ long-term strategy is unclear. As well as how the Biden administration’s response to Ukraine might develop, this uncertainty will only grow should the American public elect Donald Trump again in November.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro, director of research and director of ECFR’s US programme, to discuss the next moves in US policy on Russia’s war in Ukraine. What are the motivations behind the Biden administration’s latest decision? What is the American domestic consensus on supporting the war in Ukraine? And is it possible for NATO to protect itself from Trump?This episode was recorded on 5 June 2024.BookshelfU.S. escalation in Ukraine needs a plan, by Jeremy Shapiro and Samuel CharapAssyria: The Rise and Fall of the World’'s First Empire, by Eckart FrahmNew Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West, by David E. Sanger