Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

The results of the European Parliament elections show varying trends across the EU. As predicted by experts in the build-up, Europe’s far-right parties made substantial gains– most notably in France, Germany, and Italy – while election fatigue plagued Bulgaria; the EU election saw its population head to the polls for the sixth time in three years, with the country recording a low turn-out. On the other hand, amid a shift to the right, voters in Poland and Spain demonstrated stronger support for pro-EU parties than perhaps expected.In this week’s special episode of Europe in 30 Minutes, deputy director of ECFR Vessela Tcherneva welcomes the ECFR national office heads of Berlin, Paris, Madrid, Rome, Sofia and Warsaw, Jana Puglierin, Célia Belin, José Ignacio Torreblanca,  Arturo Varvelli, Maria Simeonova, and Piotr Buras, to discuss national implications of the EU elections. What might a weakened Scholz and strengthened Meloni mean for Europe’s future? Which coalitions are likely in Bulgaria? How can Tusk leverage his national support at EU level? And what is Macron’s thinking behind calling France’s snap election?  Bookshelf sectionWinds of change: the EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election, by Susi Dennison, Mats Engström, and Carla Hobbs.

How is America’s domestic politics impacting the war in Ukraine? Last week, the Biden administration authorised Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to strike within Russia’s borders – but, beyond July’s NATO Summit, the United States’ long-term strategy is unclear. As well as how the Biden administration’s response to Ukraine might develop, this uncertainty will only grow should the American public elect Donald Trump again in November.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro, director of research and director of ECFR’s US programme, to discuss the next moves in US policy on Russia’s war in Ukraine. What are the motivations behind the Biden administration’s latest decision? What is the American domestic consensus on supporting the war in Ukraine? And is it possible for NATO to protect itself from Trump?This episode was recorded on 5 June 2024.BookshelfU.S. escalation in Ukraine needs a plan, by Jeremy Shapiro and Samuel CharapAssyria: The Rise and Fall of the World’'s First Empire, by Eckart FrahmNew Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West, by David E. Sanger

In the past couple of decades, China has produced a multitude of big tech giants. Companies like Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and others are well on their way to becoming household names, unique in their ability to rival their American counterparts, such as Amazon, Google, or Microsoft. Still, their relationship with the Chinese state is far from frictionless, as shown by China’s October 2020 tech crackdown, in which they unleased of an array of regulatory measures against big tech firms.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang, associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and director of the Philip K.H. Wong Centre for Chinese Law, to discuss China’s big tech regulation. How is China regulating its big tech firms? What role do these firms play in China’s competition with Europe and the United States? And what are the lessons for Europe’s own attempts at tech regulation?This episode was recorded on 21 May 2024BookshelfHigh Wire: How China Regulates Big Tech and Governs Its Economy, by Angela ZhangWuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control, by Dali L. Yang

Political technology, or the professional engineering of politics, has been endemic to Russia since the Soviet era. But these practices have now spread across the globe – with manipulation occurring in China, European countries, India, the United States, and many others. And the political engineering industry goes well beyond mere online disinformation. From data mining to astroturfing and propaganda apps, a global market is emerging for the whole gamut of manipulation techniques. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at ECFR and professor of Ukrainian studies at University College London, to discuss political technology and the globalisation of political manipulation. Where did the term political technology originate? How does it spread? And what can democracies do to defend themselves? This episode was recorded on 21 May 2024 Bookshelf Political Technology: The Globalisation of Political Manipulation, by Andrew Wilson How to Steal a Presidential Election, by Lawrence Lessig and Matthew Seligman 

A key priority for both the European Union and the United States is to reduce dependencies on China in green industries. Only this week, the United States announced a ramping up of tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, solar panels, steel, and other goods. However, with China’s dominant position in the production of green technologies, European policymakers are facing difficult decisions when it comes to de-risking. Again and again, national security and domestic economic considerations have to be weighed against the effects of climate change.  In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Robbie Diamond, founder and CEO of SAFE, and of its European Initiative for Energy Security (EIES), and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme and co-author of ECFR’s upcoming policy brief on de-risking, to discuss de-risking and the future of Europe’s green industries. How should the EU tackle the issue of dependency on China? Is it possible to find a sweet spot between successful de-risking and not slowing down the green transition? And how is the US response different from the EU’s? This episode was recorded on 15 May 2024 

When Europe’s single market was first conceived in the 1980s, the number of member states was half of what it is today, the Soviet Union still existed, Germany was not yet reunified, and the Chinese and Indian economies comprised less than 5 per cent of the global economy. Now, the European Union’s economic, political, and demographic landscape is almost unrecognisable. While the single market continues to be a cornerstone of European integration, it urgently needs strengthening to adapt to this changing global order.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes former Italian prime minister and ECFR council member Enrico Letta to discuss his report examining the European single market’s future. Why is the single market so important? How can it be improved to meet today’s geopolitical challenges? And what are the dangers if the EU doesn’t adapt?This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.BookshelfSalviamo l’Europa: Otto parole per riscrivere il futuro by Michele BelliniL’Europe enfla si bien qu’elle creva: De 27 à 36 États? by Sylvie Goulard

Taiwan has come to represent a strategic flashpoint in US-China relations. As Beijing ramps up its political and military pressure on Taipei, any escalation could trigger a major conflict between the two powers. Unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China may have to reckon with direct US intervention if it chose to invade Taiwan. Alongside this, the US-China strategic competition is rising, with the United States’ strategic approach involving aggressive export controls, maintaining tariffs, and creation of alliances in the Indo-Pacific.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of national security think-tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What would the consequences of an invasion be? What can the US do about it? And what role should Europeans play in all of this?This episode was recorded on 25 April 2024Bookshelf:To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power by Sergey Radchenko

As the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s Saturday attack, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza persists and the territory remains on the brink of famine. While Israel’s attention is momentarily diverted towards Iran and its proxies, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu insists he is still planning an offensive on Rafah, discussions around a ceasefire and hostage exchange remain in deadlock, and a possible two state-solution recedes further into the distance.  In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt and chief of programmes and communications at the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, Muhammad Shehada from Gaza, to discuss the war in Gaza and the prospects for Palestinian statehood. What pathways for a solution to the conflict remain? Should the emphasis continue to be on Palestinian statehood, or on self-determination in a broader sense? Can Europeans play a constructive role in finding a peaceful solution? This episode was recorded on 17 April 2024  Bookshelf: Crossing the Divide: Intergroup Leadership in a World of Difference by Todd Pittinsky The Bank Manager and the Holy Grail: Travels to the Weirder Reaches of Wales by Byron Rogers