Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute and former Labour government advisor, for an Emergency Room episode dissecting the UK’s newly unveiled Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Prime minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% GDP by 2030, expanding the UK’s military capabilities with 12 attack submarines, boosting munitions production, and possibly reviving an air-launched nuclear capability. Together Mark and Malcolm discuss how—amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and America’s talk of reducing its European presence—the SDR focuses on leveraging AI and uncrewed systems, as well as a “NATO first, Europe first” approach. They also consider how to balance transatlantic relations with closer EU defence cooperation. Can Britain drive a technological and geopolitical shift? Or will fiscal and industrial constraints limit its ambitions?The podcast was recorded on June 2nd, 2025.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for a 15-minute rapid-response episode dissecting the outcome of Poland’s presidential election. Yesterday, right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, member of the Law and Justice party (PiS), edged out Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski by just 400,000 votes, crushing hopes of a liberal wave similar to Romania. Together, Mark and Piotr unpack the election’s profound impact on Poland’s fractured politics, what the outcome means for prime minister Donald Tusk’s struggling government, and the future of EU cohesion. Nawrocki set to block Tusk’s judicial reforms and amplify Euroscepticism—but what about Poland’s place in the EU? And how will the development impact the country’s support for Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2025.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tiago Antunes, ECFR associate senior fellow at and former Portuguese secretary of state for European affairs; and Nicu Popescu, ECFR distinguished policy fellow and former Moldovan deputy prime minister and foreign minister. Mark, Tiago and Nicu discuss the proposal for a European Preparedness Act, inspired by the US Defense Production Act, which aims to enhance the EU’s ability to mobilise resources swiftly in response to crises. The conversation explores the rationale behind the act, the political and institutional challenges to its implementation, and how it could strengthen EU member states, and closely linked partners like Moldova and Ukraine.What would an EU-wide preparedness mechanism look like in practice? Should Brussels or the EU member states wield emergency powers in a crisis? And can Europe unite behind a shared vision of resilience before the next predicament hits?Bookshelf:Law of duty: The case for a US-inspired EU Preparedness Act by Tiago AntunesThey thought they were free by Milton Mayer À la table des diplomates: L'histoire de France racontée à travers ses grands repas by Laurent StefaniniThis podcast was recorded on May 28th 2025.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme director, for an emergency room episode diving into the dire situation in Gaza. After the March ceasefire collapsed, Israel’s intensified offensive—where it plans to occupy 75% of the strip—and an 80-day humanitarian blockade have pushed Gaza into famine. The controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a private US-led initiative bypassing UNRWA, has faltered, with its head resigning amid claims it enables displacement rather than aid. Mark and Julien discuss what the EU can do to address the crisis and attempt to shift Israel’s course—as European leaders sharpen their criticism and review their trade ties. Is Europe finally finding its voice? Or is it too late to alter Gaza’s trajectory? This podcast was recorded on 27 May.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former assistant secretary general at NATO and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Ivan Rogers, formerly Britain’s permanent representative to the EU, adviser for Europe and global issues to David Cameron, and principle private secretary to Tony Blair. It has been four days after the EU-UK summit and the dust is settling—but questions remain. Together, Mark, Camille and Ivan dive into the security and defence pact, the political asymmetries behind the deal, and what it means for Britain’s domestic landscape. How does the new EU-UK security and defence pact compare to other deals with global partners? Has the UK’s position as demandeur reshaped its leverage, and is this really a win for Europe? And what role will the summit deal play in the Labour government’s European strategy?Bookshelf:Allies at War: The Politics of Defeating Hitler by Tim BouverieRépublique impériale by Raymond Aron This podcast was recorded on May 22nd.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for an emergency room episode dissecting Sunday’s pivotal elections in Poland and Romania. Their discussion, which was recorded after high-stakes voting had taken place across Portugal, Poland and Romania, zooms in on some surprising outcomes. Romania’s liberal candidate, Dan Barna, defied polls to defeat far-right contender George Simion, while Poland’s presidential race heads to a tight runoff between liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and right-wing Karol Nawrocki. With Poland’s right-wing bloc commanding 54% in the first round, the stakes are high for Europe’s liberal project. Can Poland replicate Romania’s liberal surge? Or will populism reshape the region’s trajectory? This podcast was recorded on May 19. 

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mij Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group and ECFR council member, for an emergency room episode dissecting the long-awaited EU-UK summit.  While the summit’s agreement sets precedents on policies including an agri-food deal, and a security and defence partnership, it falls short of achieving ambitious goals like a customs union. Mark and Mij’s discussion, recorded as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Council president Antonio Costa and British prime minister Keir Starmer announce the summit’s outcomes, delves into how the EU-UK reset has been marked by such progress—alongside continued unresolved tensions.   Amid domestic political pressures, and within a fragmented global order, can this summit lay the foundation for deeper cooperation? Or is it simply one cautious step in a deeply fraught political landscape?  This podcast was recorded on May 19.

Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and senior policy fellow, to discuss how President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could reshape Europe’s political landscape. Their conversation builds on Célia’s recent policy brief, “MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe”: she argues that, while Trump’s foreign policy may appear impulsive, it follows a clear ideological playbook which casts Europe not as a partner, but as a target for intimidation, transformation or outright subjugation.Together, Mark and Célia explore what Trump’s worldview means for key European actors and consider how his second-term agenda could erode transatlantic trust. Can Europe push back effectively? Have European leaders grasped the scale of the challenge, or are they still hoping for appeasement? And what would a “MAGA-shaped Europe” look like by the end of Trump’s term?Bookshelf: MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe by Célia BelinOne Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez

Far from a grand bargain, the US-China trade deal rolls back President Donald Trump’s post-Liberation Day tariff spiral—which peaked at 145%—to pre-April levels. This will avert empty US shelves, but leaves underlying tensions unresolved. In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to dissect the recent de-escalation, which the parties agreed this week in Geneva. The conversation explores who holds the upper hand, the prospects for a 90-day negotiation period, and the broader clash between deal-making instincts and systemic rivalry. For Europe, caught between US pressure and a less desperate China, the stakes are high as it navigates an upcoming EU-China summit. Is this a fleeting truce or a sign of deeper shifts in global trade?This episode was recorded on May 14.