Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard hosts Tobias Gehrke, an ECFR senior policy fellow specialising in geoeconomics and economic security, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and expert on tech geopolitics, to explore how Europe can counter a potentially hostile Trump administration. With trade wars looming and the US flexing its power, Mark and his guests delve into Tobias’s new policy brief, Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion. They outline which tools Europe can use—from trade tariffs and service restrictions, to targeting tech giants like Elon Musk’s Starlink and Tesla, to curbing data flows and licences for firms like BlackRock—to apply leverage over Trump’s administration. The discussion weighs the costs of deterrence, the risk of escalation into security domains like NATO, and the threat posed by tech tycoons to European democracy. Can Europe stand firm without shooting itself in the foot?  This podcast was recorded on 20th March. 

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kirill Shamiev, a policy fellow with ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, to dissect the outcomes and implications of the historic phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin—which, at two-and-a-half-hours, was the longest between American and Russian leaders in history. Mark and Kirill explore the three key outcomes: a prisoner exchange of 175 individuals from each side; an agreement to cease attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days; and a shift from informal diplomacy to official expert discussions on conflict settlement.  The conversation also delves into the contrasting post-call read-outs from the White House and the Kremlin; where Russia is projecting assertiveness, the US has adopted a more diplomatic tone. What does the phone call mean for the Ukraine conflict? And why is Europe conspicuously absent from the discussion?  This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2025.

In this episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Adam Tooze—ECFR trustee, the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of history at Columbia University, director of the university’s European Institute and author—to discuss Donald Trump’s rise through a class lens. They examine how job losses and cultural divides, as well as frustration with media, tech and government elites, are driving workers’ support for Trump. These societal shifts are disrupting US politics, promoting figures like Trump and Elon Musk who some see as defying the establishment. Tooze calls for Europe to develop a united, stronger response to these changes. With the US distracted and China ahead in manufacturing areas such as tech and automotive, Europe needs major investments in finance, industry and technology. Tooze sees less risk in US trade disputes but warns Europe must act to stay relevant. But can Europe meet this challenge?This podcast was recorded on 17th March. 

Donald Trump's presidency has cast a significant shadow over Europe, reshaping its varied political landscapes and policy decisions. As the continent navigates this transformative era, it also faces tests to its unity and cohesion.  This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Paris office, Piotr Buras, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Warsaw office, Teresa Coratella, ECFR policy fellow and deputy head of the Rome office, Rafael Loss, ECFR policy fellow, José Ignacio Torreblanca, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Madrid office and Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR Sofia, for a special episode recorded in Prague where ECFR gathered for its annual staff retreat. Together with Mark, this week’s guests explore how Trump 2.0 is forcing Europe to confront its vulnerabilities and rethink many assumptions which it had long taken for granted. This podcast was recorded on March 13th 

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, head of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, to explore the implications of and strategic motives behind a newly announced Ukraine-US agreement amid the Russia conflict. The deal includes a 30-day ceasefire, and resumed US intelligence sharing and military aid for Ukraine. Will Russia reciprocate or escalate? Is the US fully backing Ukraine or seeking a reset with Russia? Does Russia see a chance to cement influence over Ukraine and European security? This podcast was recorded on 12 March. 

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office to discuss the recent shifts in Europe’s defence strategy. On the weekend, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s has said he would pursue discussions with France and Britain on sharing nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk is looking into the possibility of nuclear deterrence and has proposed compulsory military training for men. Are we witnessing a fundamental shift in Europe’s security posture? How do Tusk’s remarks tie into Merz’s comments? Are we seeing the end of America’s nuclear umbrella in Europe, or at least the end of its credibility?  

Fourteen years after the outbreak of civil war, Syria is at a critical juncture. Beyond its borders, regional tensions continue to shape its fate. Meanwhile, traditional global powers, particularly the US, remain largely disengaged—raising questions about the risk of inaction. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Hugh Lovatt, ECFR senior policy fellow. The team has just returned from a research trip to Damascus, where they met with Syria’s new government officials and civil society members. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, what is the mood in the country? How has governance evolved under the new leadership, and what challenges persist? What role can—and should—Europe play in shaping Syria’s post-war reality? And do Syria’s new politics offer an opportunity for Europe to counter Russian influence?   Bookshelf: Kleptopia: How Dirty Money is Conquering the World by Tom BurgisMovies: The Swimmers, No Other Land, The Seed of the Sacred FigKingdoms of Faith A New History of Islamic Spain by Brian A. Catlos   This podcast was recorded on March 4th 2025

Europeans face major challenges in maintaining transatlantic relations amid Trump’s withdrawal of US support for Ukraine; now ECFR has declared a policy emergency. Over the next month, Mark Leonard will host a 15-minute long emergency podcast ECFR’s Emergency Room every Monday and Wednesday, alongside our regular Friday episodes.To kick things off, Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss the war effort and Europe's role in supporting Kyiv after the US paused all aid shipments to Ukraine. As uncertainty looms, European nations face mounting pressure to step up their support. What kind of aid has the US halted, and how will this impact Ukraine’s ability to defend itself on the battlefield? Can mediation help Europeans engage with Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky? And what, in practical terms, what can Europeans realistically do? This podcast was recorded on March 5th 2025

The final episode of Searching for Deutschland—a special crossover with the World in 30 Minutes—sees experts from Berlin, London, Paris and Warsaw break down the result of Germany’s federal election and discuss what comes next. Coalition negotiations are underway; Germany's shifting political dynamics will shape the country's future while carrying significant implications for Europe. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR editorial director and senior policy fellow; Jana Puglierin, ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow; Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme; and Piotr Buras, ECFR’s Warsaw office head and senior policy fellow, to discuss the results of Germany’s federal election. What kind of coalition is likely to emerge, and how stable will it be? How are Paris and Warsaw receiving the election result? Could Germany’s change in government lead to a closer Franco-German and Polish-German relationship? And what does the likelihood of Friedrich Merz as the next chancellor mean for the future of transatlantic ties? Bookshelf:Worte, die die Welt beherrschen by Jörg Lau The Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century by Sergei Goryev and Daniel Treisman Brothers and Ghosts by Khuê Pham Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and The Breaking of America by Maggie Haberman