Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director and head of its US programme, and Tom Wright, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Strobe Talbott Centre and former Biden administration official, for an episode recorded live at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado. Mark, Jeremy and Tom discuss the forum’s tense atmosphere, marked by the Trump administration’s last-minute ban on Department of Defence participation. Amid debates on AI, supply chain resilience and geopolitical competition, the episode explores America’s inward turn and its wavering Ukraine commitment. What are the implications for Europe’s security? Is the US retreating from global leadership? And can Europe adapt to a fragmented technological and economic order?This episode was recorded on July 18th, 2025.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Hugh Lovatt, ECFR policy fellow, and Tahani Mustafa, visiting fellow in ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to discuss Israel’s military action in Gaza and the West Bank, the ensuing humanitarian crisis, and the political dynamics of Hamas, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Mark, Hugh and Tahani provide insights into the complexities of the conflict, the role of international actors, and the implications for Palestinian politics and public sentiment.In Gaza, over 57,000 people have been killed, the aid distribution system is chaotic and dangerous, and ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas seem to go nowhere. All the while, Israel is expanding its presence in the West Bank by building settlements and expelling or detaining Palestinians. What’s next for Gaza and the West Bank? And how can Europe and the US step up to ensure the death toll does not grow even higher?This podcast was recorded on July 17th 2025.Out of Place by Edward W. SaidAssyria: The Rise and Fall of the World’s First Empire by Eckart Frahm

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tobias Gehrke, ECFR senior policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the collapse of an EU-US trade deal. President Donald Trump’s last-minute letter, threatening to impose tariffs of 30% on the EU by August 1st, shattered expectations of a negotiated settlement—and prompted EU member states to prepare a €93bn retaliation package which targets American goods. Mark and Tobias explore why Trump upended talks, the EU’s hesitation to deploy its anti-coercion instrument and the urgent need for political (not technocratic) engagement. As trade tensions collide with security priorities like Ukraine, can Europe wield its economic leverage to avert a full-blown trade war?The podcast was recorded on July 14th, 2025.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova, ECFR senior policy fellow, and Camille Grand, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss ECFR’s new European Security Programme and the war in Ukraine. They take a “beyond the horizon” view of the war, considering what Europe’s medium- and long-term strategy towards Ukraine should look like. This links directly to the new programme’s mission, which was created as a response to the short-term thinking which characterises perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine war—and European security more broadly.  How might the conflict between Russia and Ukraine evolve over the coming months? What role is the US playing in this trajectory? And what kind of security environment can Europeans expect in the future?This episode was recorded on July 10th 2025. Bookshelf: Travels In Arabia Deserta by Charles M. Doughty.The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy and the Life of John Maynard Keynes by Zachary D. Carter.Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine­ by Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova and Nicu Popescu.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Henry Farrell, ECFR council member and professor at John Hopkins University, to discuss Henry’s new book “Underground Economy”, co-authored by Abraham Newman. In their take, globalisation has brought interdependence—which is being weaponised as a tool for strategic advantage. As the main facilitator of global interdependence, America exploits countries’ embeddedness in the US-led global order and uses its financial position to its own strategic advantage.  But what are the implications of America weaponising this interdependence? How can key actors exercise power in this hyperconnected system? And what challenges and opportunities does Europe face in this competitive and interconnected environment?  Bookshelf: Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy- Henry Farrell and Abe Newman 

Recorded live from ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting 2025, this week’s podcast features Mark Leonard in conversation with Ivan Krastev, Chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and permanent fellow at the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna, and Carl Bildt, former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden as well as co-chair of ECFR’s council.They discuss the new ECFR report “Trump’s European revolution”, which draws on data from a new international opinion poll. The conversation explores how Donald Trump is transforming Europe’s geopolitical landscape and the identities of its political parties, fueling security fears and deepening divisions. They also examine how demographic shifts and immigration are changing societal attitudes and political dynamics across Europe.This podcast episode was recorded on June 27th 2025.Bookshelf:Trump’s European revolution, by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the high-stakes NATO summit in The Hague. Against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, world leaders navigated President Donald Trump’s push for a 5% GDP defence-spending target, their ongoing support for Ukraine, and Russia’s long-term threat. Mark and Camille explore the summit’s carefully choreographed outcomes, including a reaffirmed Article 5 commitment and no formal withdrawal of US troops—despite looming reviews of America’s presence in Europe. Can NATO balance Trump’s demands with European autonomy? Or is this merely a fragile truce among a shifting alliance?This episode was recorded on June 25th, 2025.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Eran Etzion, policy planning director for the Israeli foreign ministry and former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council.Mark and his guests break down how the conflict has developed since last Friday’s emergency podcast and explore possible future scenarios. The discussion looks at the conflict from the Israeli and the Iranian perspectives, taking into account also the reactions of G7 states and the likely US response. What are Israel’s and Iran’s options in the coming weeks and months? What might a diplomatic way out of the conflict look like? Is this even still a possibility? And what could the repercussions be if America decided to join the war in support of Israel?Bookshelf:“Autocracy, Inc.” by Anne ApplebaumEurope must act now to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran by Ellie Geranmayeh

Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode diving into Israel’s massive overnight attack on Iran. Using 200 fighter jets, Israel targeted over 100 military and nuclear sites, assassinating senior Iranian commanders and scientists. The result is a situation which is escalating far beyond October 2024’s tit-for-tat strikes. As Iran responds by launching drone attacks on Israel and debating broader retaliation, Mark and Ellie discuss the damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, the potential for a multi-layered Israeli campaign, and how the delicate US-Iran nuclear talks are now teetering on the brink of collapse. With Arab states condemning Israel and the US distancing itself from its ally’s actions, what can Europe do to avert a full-scale regional war?