Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Mark Leonard is joined by Africa experts Nathalie Delapalme, CEO of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and ECFR council member, Carlos Lopes, honourary professor at the University of Cape Town who has occupied prominent positions in the UN and African Union and Alex Vines, director of ECFR’s Africa programme.Together, they explore how the European policies on critical raw minerals and energy should evolve in relation to Africa’s economic growth, the needs of younger generation and China’s presence in the region. They also outline which topics are key to understanding the EU-AU relationship.How can Europe support Africa’s climate and energy goals without recreating patterns of conditionality or dependency? What impact will the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism have on African economies? With multiple global powers seeking influence in Africa, how should Europe reposition itself as a partner of choice? And how does China’s cooperation with Africa impact Europe?Bookshelf     The Hour of the Predator: Encounters with the Autocrats and Tech Billionaires Taking Over the World by Giuliano Da EmpoliAfrican Europeans: An Untold History by Olivette OtéléFareed’s take: World countering Trump with shrewd moves

In an emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and former Mumbai bureau chief for the Financial Times, to discuss the long-awaited EU-India trade deal. The agreement, nearly 20 years in the making, was signed in New Delhi by Ursula von der Leyen, Antonio Costa and Narendra Modi, and has been dubbed the “mother of all deals”. It aims to integrate two massive markets—representing a quarter of the global population—slash tariffs, boost services trade and reduce dependencies on China and the US.  Mark and James explore India’s strategic pivot amid US tariffs, the potential for deeper defence and tech ties, and Europe’s quest for autonomy in a multipolar world. Is this a game-changer for global trade flows? Can Europe and India forge a true superpower partnership, or will domestic politics and external pressures derail progress? And is this the birth of a new geopolitical axis? This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2026.

In this episode, Mark Leonard sits down with Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, in Davos for a conversation about Donald Trump’s view of Ukraine, Greenland, the world and Europe’s place in it. They explore the clash between advocates of multipolarity and those resisting it, and how this battle is reshaping global power.  Together, they reflect on the shifting idea of the West and the challenge of preserving a pragmatic, values based transatlantic relationship. They also explore Finland’s place in this rapidly evolving landscape including the impact of Trump’s sights on Greenland and the war in Ukraine. Bookshelf Peacemaker: U Thant and the Forgotten Quest for a Just World by Thant Myint-U The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order by Alex Stubb * please note there were technical issues during the recording

Protests across Iran have entered their third week and Donald Trump is said to be considering a military intervention against the Khamenei regime. According to human rights organisations, its brutal crackdown against demonstrators has led to at least 2,500 deaths, as well as an internet blackout and mass arrests. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to discuss the Iranian protests, what a military intervention by Trump could look like and how Iranians are reacting to the political turmoil.Could Trump feasibly intervene in Iran? What are his options? How do the current protests differ from those staged after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini? What role could Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, play in a potential regime change? And how does Iran’s nuclear programme fit into all of this?This podcast was recorded on Thursday 15, January 2026.Bookshelf It Was Just an Accident by Jafar PanahiTaraneh: A Documentary by BBC

Following on from January 2nd’s prediction episode, Mark Leonard hosts Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East programme director, Alex Vines, ECFR’s Africa programme director, Andrew Small, ECFR’s Asia programme director, and Jana Kobzová, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026. How will global politics shift in 2026? Will we finally see an end to the war in Ukraine? How are the ongoing protests in Iran affecting the likelihood of an Israeli attack? What’s next for the Gaza peace deal? What are the major points of conflict that will shape Africa this year? And will Europeans finally confront China’s growing influence? BookshelfThe War Came to Us: Life and Death in Ukraine by Christopher MillerIndignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea YpiTransformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Road to Power in Syria by Patrick Haenni and Jerome DrevonSahel: The Perfect Storm by Morten BøåsChina’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 by Daniel H. Rosen, Logan Wright, Oliver Melton and Jeremy Smith (Rhodium Group) This podcast was recorded on January 8th 2026

On January 3rd, the US military struck Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump has declared that America will now “run” the country, shifting from a narrative which had focused on the US fighting a war against drug traffickers to a narrative which sees the US assert control over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves. Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR research director, and Nacho Torreblanca, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss why America decided to capture Maduro and what this could mean for the domestic situation in Venezuela—as well as its wider implications for other areas, including Greenland. What were Trump’s motivations? Will the US increasingly use military force to secure resources and territory across the Americas and the north Atlantic? And could Greenland be next?  Bookshelf Morir en la arena (To Die in the Sand) by Leonardo PaduraThe Revolutionary Temper: Paris, 1748-1789 by Robert Darnton This podcast was recorded on January 5th 2026

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026. Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come? This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025. BookshelfThe Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana PuglierinSurviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026)  

China’s tightening of export controls on rare earths and related technologies across 2025 marked a turning point in Europe’s economic security. Even with Beijing’s partial and momentary rollback after talks with Washington, a Damocles sword still hangs over Europe’s industrial base—from defence to semiconductors and clean tech.  And with China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and Made in China 2035, Europe faces the triple threat of coercion, industrial corrosion and loss of sensitive business intelligence.  This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke, senior policy fellow at ECFR covering economic security and European economic strategy, and Andrew Small, the new director of the ECFR’s Asia programme. Together,  they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response.   How seriously should Europeans take the threat of Chinese coercion? In which industries can Europe realistically compete with Beijing? And where are Europe’s potential partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America for alternative supply chains?  This episode was recorded on December 15 2025  Bookshelf Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization by Ed Conway The Reckoning by David Halberstam “Isch vorbei” by Süddeutsche Zeitung