Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Given the turbulence across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, conversations at this year’s Doha Forum highlighted a Middle East region, and a world order, in flux. Now the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the upcoming Donald Trump administration will shape American relations in the Middle East – and changing regional priorities and dynamics will likely impact the future international order.This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, Majid Khadduri professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, to discuss the Middle East and changing global dynamics. How might the fall of the Assad regime reshape the region’s political and security landscape? What does the development mean for Syria? And how are regional powers adapting to the uncertainty of the second Trump administration? This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2024 Bookshelf:Revenge of the Tipping Point by Malcolm GladwellIn Praise of Hatred by Khaled KhalifaWhy War ? By Richard Overy 

Its almost three years after Russia invaded Ukraine and, despite small Russian gains in the east, the war looks no closer to reaching a military conclusion. But with Donald Trump’s re-election, change is in the air. Talk of a ceasefire, once taboo, is now common in Washington and even in eastern European capitals – not to mention among government officials in major cities such as Berlin, Paris, and London.This week Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, head of ECFR’s Washington office, to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine, international efforts for peace, and potential end-game scenarios. Which tools could a Trump administration use to bring both sides to the negotiating table? Who is Keith Kellogg, Trump’s pick as Ukraine envoy? How might Europeans help Ukraine defend itself if the US is out of the picture? And how will the different sides use the period until Trump’s inauguration to advance their positions?This podcast was recorded on 4 December 2024Bookshelf:L'Ukraine, la République et les oligarques by Sébastien GobertNotre homme à Washington by Régis GentéThe Embrace of Unreason: France, 1914-1920 by Frederick BrownImagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro 

After weeks of negotiations, US president Joe Biden announced that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, it remains unclear whether the development will really help end the Middle East conflict which started 14 months ago and became even deadlier following Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza in October.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme and interim director of the Africa programme, to discuss the recent agreement. Why did Israel and Hezbollah agree to the ceasefire now? What are the terms? What makes this ceasefire different in terms of enforcement? What does a potential end to the conflict mean for Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon? And what are the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza?Bookshelf:The Wager by David Grann

On Monday, the world’s 20 largest economies descended on Rio de Janeiro for the annual G20 summit. But Brazil’s wider role in the shifting world order is frequently misperceived in Western discourse. Many tend to categorise it either as a close partner of Russia and China, or as a staunch supporter of the international order established by the West. In fact, however, it aligns with neither.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Madrid office, and Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow, to discuss Brazil’s role in a changing world order. What are the main takeaways from this year’s G20, and how does Brazil view its role in such summits? How is Brazil positioning itself in the world? What types of relationships does Brasilia seek with global south countries, and how does Europe fit into this? And what do Brazilians think about Donald Trump?Bookshelf:Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America by Michael ReidThe Tech Coup: How to Save Democracy from Silicon Valley by Marietje SchaakeLa France, tu l aimes mais tu la quittes: Enquête sur la diaspora française musulmane by de Collectif, Olivier Esteves, Alice Picard Jak biały człowiek by Oliwia BosomtweBrazil: Europe’s bridge to the global south by Carla Hobbs, José Ignacio Torreblanca, Pawel ZerkaThis podcast was recorded on 21 November 2024

Donald Trump's first stint as president – with his “America First” stance and isolationist foreign policy – disrupted relations between the US and Europe, especially over NATO, trade, and the climate. Now the world is faced with further challenges, such as the war in Ukraine: and Trump’s return could prompt European countries to seek greater military and economic independence from the US while collaborating to become a more unified front.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office; Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office; Anna Kuchenbecker, ECFR’s senior director of strategic partnerships; Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR’s Sofia office; and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to provide a view from the ECFR capitals. How have they reacted to the election result? How should their country governments prepare for Trump? Which challenges does Trump's return to the White House pose for Ukraine in the wider context of European security? How might Trump’s return affect the economy, escalate trade tensions, and reshape relations with China? And, crucially, what does his reelection mean for Europe?The podcast was recorded on 13 November 13 2024Bookshelf:Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Jeremy Shapiro, and Majda RugeTrump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it? by Timothy Garton AshArt of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era by Alberto RizziLiving in Trump’s world by Mark LeonardDangerous manoeuvers: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0 by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt

On 6 November, the same day that Donald Trump was re-elected as US president, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed his minister of finance, Christian Lindner – and the country’s ‘traffic light’ coalition government collapsed. Since then, an interim government has been in place: but its future is uncertain amid a rapidly changing world.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director, Janka Oertel, ECFR senior policy fellow and director of its Asia programme, and Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to discuss the collapse of the German government coalition. What are the plans for the interim government? Who is Jörg Kukies? What happens if CDU leader Friedrich Merz doesn’t help Scholz out? What does the coalition collapse mean for budget, spending, and the debt break? And how will it impact Germany’s foreign policy, especially considering the war in Ukraine and Trump’s imminent return to the White House? This podcast was recorded on 8 November 2024Bookshelf:Ein deutscher Kanzler: Olaf Scholz, der Krieg und die Angst | Der Kanzlerberichterstatter schreibt das Porträt des Kanzlers aus nächster Nähe by Daniel BrösslerNo Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers by Robert LighthizerFreiheitsschock: Eine andere Geschichte Ostdeutschlands von 1989 bis heute by Ilko-Sascha KowalczukBetter firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace by Nicu Popescu and Laurence BooneDemocracy and war: Politics and Identity in a time of global threats by Norbert Röttgen

The polls have closed, the counting is almost over, and it is certain: there will be a second Donald Trump administration. With his historic and unprecedent second victory, the Republican party not only won the electoral college, but also regained control of the Senate – and look set to gain control of the House of Representatives and win the popular vote, too. In swing states Trump’s voter based turned out in force, while demographic shifts away from the Democrats paint a gloomy picture for Kamala Harris.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, ECFR associate senior policy fellow, and Jeremy Shapiro, research director and ECFR’s US programme director, to discuss the results of the US election 2024. Who turned out for Trump and why? What did Trump do right and what did Harris do wrong? What will a second Trump administration mean for international relations and US foreign policy? How should European leaders respond to the changing political landscape in the US? And what mistakes should they avoid in the era of Trump 2.0? This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2024Bookshelf:Polostan by Neal StephensonImagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Majda Ruge, and Jeremy ShapiroTrust by Hernan DiazLeurs enfants après eux by Nicolas Mathieu

The recent elections in Georgia and Moldova were marred by significant Russian interference, including disinformation campaigns and vote-buying. As the Kremlin seeks to undermine the candidate countries’ EU futures, Brussels needs to take action.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi, deputy director of the ECFR Wider Europe Programme, and Nicu Popescu, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss what was at stake in these elections. What do the results mean for Georgia and Moldova’s EU accession? How did disinformation schemes and vote-buying under Russian influence impact the votes? And what actions should the EU take in response?