Cross Tabs

Quick production note: Farrah's audio gets better a couple of minutes into the recording. We have no idea what went wrong, but you'll only suffer for a few minutes before everyone sounds great. :) In this episode, host Farrah Bostic explores the fascinating relationship between journalism and polling, inspired by the book Lost in a Gallup, with its author, Professor W. Joseph Campbell. We discuss the historical evolution of polling from its early days, marked by the Literary Digest's infamous 1936 failure, to the upstart methodologies of Gallup, Roper, and Crossley. The conversation highlights the love-hate relationship between journalists and pollsters, exploring the mutual benefits and tensions that have shaped their interactions over decades. We also examine major polling failures, including the 1948 Dewey-Truman election, and the complexities of modern polling methods. The episode emphasizes the human desire for prediction and the underlying challenges of accurately gauging public opinion in an ever-evolving media landscape.Our GuestW. Joseph Campbell is a former newspaper and wire service journalist who reported from four continents in an award-winning twenty-year career. He is currently professor emeritus at American University's School of Communication, and is the author of Lost in a Gallup (2020), Getting It Wrong (2010, 2017), and 1995: The Year the Future Began (2015) among other works.Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

Forecasting election outcomes involves far more than simple polling averages, often incorporating complex models that account for candidate strengths, voter demographics, and historical trends. While these models strive for accuracy, they must grapple with the inherent unpredictability of human behavior and the challenge of quantifying intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and candidate quality. In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions. Resources Split Ticket: https://split-ticket.orgSplit Ticket's Presidential Polling AggregatorWe Dug Into the 2024 Polling Crosstabs. What We Found Was Stunning. (Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle in Politico)How #electiontwitter took over the political prediction game (Financial Times)How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted (The New York Times) Pollster Ratings (FiveThirtyEight) Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecastOur Guest Lakshya Jain is a machine learning engineer who analyzes political data in his free time. He handles modeling, data pieces, and presidential ratings for Split Ticket. Jain graduated from UC Berkeley with a BA in 2019 and an MS in 2020, majoring in computer science. He currently works in the tech industry. His political analysis and writing have appeared in prominent publications such as The New York Times, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Bulwark. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

America's political landscape is deeply divided into two distinct nations, shaped by historical, economic, and cultural forces that extend far beyond simple demographics. This divide manifests in vastly different lived experiences, policy preferences, and institutional structures between red and blue states, with profound implications for the future of American democracy and governance. In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Mike Podhorzer, a political strategist and data analyst, to discuss Podhorzer's excellent analysis of The Two Americas, examining how factors like regional factionalism, economic models, religious institutions, and labor unions have contributed to the current political polarization. The conversation covers the limitations of traditional polling methods, the role of exogenous events in shaping political alignments, and the potential for collective action to address systemic issues in American politics.  Resources "The Limits of Education Essentialism" by Mike Podhorzer"The Two Nations of America" by Mike Podhorzer"As Go Unions, So Goes America" by Mike PodhorzerKnow Your Enemy podcast episode The Bomb PowerCook Political Report podcast episode What Polls Miss - And What We Should Focus On Instead Our Guest Mike Podhorzer is a renowned political strategist and data analyst with decades of experience in labor politics and progressive causes. He served as the longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, where he pioneered innovative approaches to voter mobilization and data-driven campaigning.  Podhorzer is widely recognized for his insightful analysis of American political trends, particularly his work on the "Two Americas" concept, which examines the deep structural divides in U.S. politics. His writing and research have contributed significantly to understanding the complexities of modern American political landscapes beyond traditional polling metrics. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include:How not to be a crosstab trutherWhy elections aren't really that much like marketsHow forecasts predict the pastWhy campaigns don't need one single message to win the whole thingAnd what you should do with your energy and effort if you're not using forecasts to earn a living.Tune in to gain a nuanced understanding of polling, forecasting, and political marketing as we head towards the election.There are 69 days to the 2024 election.Recommended Reading:"Mad Poll Disease Redux: Harris-Walz Edition" Weekend Reading by Mike PodhorzerYour Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts 0Spotify

Polling data and turnout models are far more complex than most people realize, with numerous factors influencing their accuracy and interpretation. From the challenges of non-response bias to the intricacies of early voting analysis, understanding election forecasts requires a nuanced approach beyond simple percentages. In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah speaks with Dr. Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. Dr. McDonald, known for producing the country's voter turnout rates, shares his expertise on the complexities of polling methodologies, the impact of demographic shifts on voting patterns, and the critical need for standardized election data collection across the United States. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including the limitations of voter files, the challenges of predicting turnout, and the potential benefits of a national identity card for solving voter registration issues.  Resources Voter Turnout Gap in SurveysPerformance of American Elections SurveyElection Lab at UFCurrent Population Survey Voter and Registration SupplementCooperative Election SurveyUS Election Project (Michael McDonald’s Substack newsletter) Our Guest Dr. Michael McDonald is a professor of political science at the University of Florida and a renowned expert on American elections. He is best known for producing the United States Elections Project, which provides the country's most authoritative voter turnout statistics.  Dr. McDonald's work on early voting patterns and election administration has been widely cited in academic research and media coverage. His expertise extends to redistricting, voting rights, and the analysis of precinct-level election data. With a career spanning decades, Dr. McDonald has become a go-to source for understanding the complexities of the American electoral system and voter behavior.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple PodcastsSpotify

Public opinion polling has historically underrepresented Black Americans and other minority groups, leading to skewed perceptions of national sentiment. Emotional responses to political issues and candidates play a crucial role in shaping voter behavior, yet are often overlooked in traditional survey methods. Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks, Associate Professor of Political Science at Villanova University, discusses the evolution of political polling and its impact on Black communities. She shares insights on the importance of qualitative research in understanding voter motivations, the need to update outdated survey measures, and the potential for emotional factors to influence voters. The conversation also touches on the challenges of accurately representing diverse populations in polls and the responsibility of both pollsters and the public in interpreting survey results.  Resources Polling and the Public by Herbert AsherHistoric Firsts by Evelyn SimienThe Philadelphia Negro by W.E.B. Du Bois and Isabel EatonNational Survey of Black AmericansNational Black Election StudyNational Black Politics StudyCollaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Study (CMPS) Data Black Public Opinion Polls Our Guest Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks is an Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Villanova University. Her research focuses on political psychology, race and ethnicity in American politics, and the role of emotions in shaping political behavior. Dr. Burge-Hicks is particularly interested in exploring how group identities and emotional experiences influence public opinion and political decision-making among Black Americans and other minority groups. Her forthcoming book, Fired Up, Ready to Go: Pride, Shame, and Anger in Black Politics, examines the intersection of emotions and racial identity in political engagement.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Federal statistical agencies play a crucial role in providing objective, high-quality data that inform policy decisions, resource allocation, and business strategies across the United States. However, these agencies face significant challenges, including budget constraints, declining response rates, and the need to modernize data collection methods while maintaining data integrity and privacy. In this episode, Farrah interviews Connie Citro, a senior scholar at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Citro discusses the findings from a recent report, "The Nation's Data at Risk," which assesses the health of federal statistical agencies. She explains the historical development of these agencies, their importance in providing reliable data for both public and private sectors, and the potential consequences of underfunding and political interference. The conversation covers topics such as data sharing between agencies, the impact of non-response on survey quality, and the need for greater public awareness of federal statistics' value. Resources The Nation's Data at Risk  National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)  Fundamental Principles for Official Statistics  Census Project  Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency  Our Guest Connie Citro is a distinguished expert in federal statistics with over four decades of experience in the field. She served for many years as the director of the Committee on National Statistics at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, where she now continues as a senior scholar. Throughout her career, Citro has been involved in numerous studies on critical statistical issues, including decennial census methodologies, poverty measurement, and the American Community Survey. Her extensive knowledge and experience make her a leading voice in discussions about the health and future of the U.S. federal statistical system.   Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Immersive gaming exercises offer a powerful tool for understanding complex geopolitical scenarios and developing strategic empathy. They provide insights that traditional analysis often misses. By inhabiting different perspectives and grappling with real-world constraints, participants gain a deeper appreciation for the multifaceted nature of global challenges and decision-making processes. In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah talks to Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Amal Ali of Valens Games about their innovative approach, going beyond wargaming and scenario planning to more immersive strategic experiences. They discuss how their exercises help leaders break free from cognitive biases, explore alternative futures, and gain insight into complex political and social dynamics. We talk about the potential applications of these techniques to the current political situation, offering listeners a fresh perspective on analyzing and preparing for uncertain futures. Resources Influence by Robert Cialdini Ezra Klein's episode on an open Democratic convention:  Sarah Longwell's The Focus Group at The Bulwark Valens Games war games Our Guests Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of Valens Games. He is a practitioner, scholar, and entrepreneur whose career has focused on analyzing complex 21st-century challenges and forging laudable solutions to them. Daveed is also the author or volume editor of over 30 books and monographs, including Enemies Near and Far (Columbia University Press, 2022), which examines ISIS and al-Qaeda’s processes of engaging in organizational learning. He is on the faculty at Carnegie Mellon University and Duke University. Amal Ali Amal Ali serves as the Senior Vice President of Strategy at Valens Games, where she specializes in engaging with government and public sector clients. Her career spans military service, intelligence work, and strategic consulting. Ali is a military veteran with experience in the U.S. intelligence community, including work at the agency level and supporting Army and joint special operations. Ali's background in intelligence analysis, coupled with her cross-cultural understanding, informs her approach to game design and facilitation at Valens Games. In her role, she focuses on developing immersive exercises that help decision-makers gain new perspectives on complex geopolitical challenges.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience in research and strategy for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions. Connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify