Coffee House Shots

Voters head to the polls tomorrow in Makerfield for what could be the most consequential by-election in modern British history. If Andy Burnham wins by a significant margin, he will be heralded as the man Labour need to beat Reform nationally – and Starmer could be forced out within days.Yet the Prime Minister has come out fighting, warning Burnham that now is not the time for a challenge. What should we expect from what promises to be a febrile 72 hours in British politics? Will Starmer’s deposition be conducted with decorum, or will it descend into a bloodbath?Plus: with Keir Starmer travelling back from the G7 today, parliament saw Deputy Prime Minister’s Questions. Amid Labour’s leadership turmoil, David Lammy went head to head with the shadow energy secretary, Claire Coutinho, herself tipped to be a future Tory chancellor. How did they both fare?Isabel Hardman speaks to Tim Shipman and pollster Scarlett MaguireProduced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.

Westminster is braced for the Makerfield by-election at the end of this week but – as we get closer to polling day – opinion seems to have shifted. While at the start it looked as though Reform could challenge in the seat, the Andy Burnham factor appears to have changed the picture, and most are predicting that Labour’s prince across the water will make landfall.One person familiar with the ground game is Gawain Towler, a longtime ally of Nigel Farage and now a member of the Reform UK board. He speaks to Noa Hoffman about why the contest is not over and the various tactics his party is using to beat Burnham.Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Patrick Gibbons.

Donald Trump has announced a deal to end the war between Iran and the US, but in Westminster, the relief comes with serious questions. What does the deal actually contain? Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen quickly enough to bring down oil prices? And could any economic boost come too late to save Keir Starmer?Elsewhere, Keir Starmer has announced under-16s will be banned from social media by spring 2027. The policy may be popular with parents, but the details remain sketchy: how would it be enforced, would it require facial recognition or digital ID, and could teenagers simply get around it with VPNs? Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons discuss with Megan McElroy.

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.John Healey's resignation puts Keir Starmer in trouble again. And Reform say British institutions treat white people unfairly.

A second defence minister has resigned in protest at Keir Starmer’s failure to fund Britain’s armed forces. Al Carns, a former Royal Marines colonel, has followed John Healey out of the Ministry of Defence, warning that the government is letting down those in uniform – and taking aim at both the defence investment plan and Labour’s handling of Northern Ireland veterans.Starmer has now appointed Dan Jarvis as Defence Secretary, but the brief increasingly looks like a poisoned chalice. With the Strategic Defence Review still unfunded, ministers sent out to defend a plan they have not seen, and the Prime Minister heading to the G7 and Nato summit under pressure, has Starmer’s strongest claim to leadership – defence and foreign affairs – collapsed?James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman.Produced by Megan McElroy.

Britain’s defence review is now a year old – but the government is still arguing over how to pay for it. John Healey, the (now former) defence secretary, has resigned over the failure to set out an adequate plan to meet the need to modernise our armed forces.General Sir Richard Barrons, one of the architects of the Strategic Defence Review, joins Coffee House Shots to explain why the funding row is about more than budgets. He warns that Britain’s armed forces have been hollowed out after decades of cuts, that modern war is moving at the speed of AI and that Russia does not need to invade Britain to threaten daily life.Is Britain ready for the next war? What happens if America no longer comes to Europe’s defence? And has the political class failed to explain the scale of the danger?Tim Shipman speaks to General Sir Richard Barrons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

John Healey has resigned as Defence Secretary. In a blistering letter to the Prime Minister, he said: ‘You have been unable, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.’This comes after Keir Starmer failed even to secure the derisory sum of money he had demanded from the Treasury and the cabinet to modernise Britain’s forces following the recommendations of the Strategic Defence Review. The timing is equally devastating, as Starmer is heading to the G7 summit on Monday, where he will have to face Donald Trump.So what does this mean for Starmer’s premiership? Will more resignations follow – or will the missiles turn on the Treasury and Rachel Reeves’s reluctance to cough up? And who will take on the poisoned chalice of the defence brief now?Noa Hoffman speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

For the second week in a row, PMQs comes in light of a disturbing instance of violent crime. Last week, ministers were recoiling at the shocking bodycam footage from Henry Novak’s murder, and this week comes in the context of a knife attack by a Sudanese asylum seeker in Belfast.Kemi Badenoch was impressive again, not just in condemning the Belfast violence but also pressing the PM on the much-delayed defence investment plan. She seems to have completed a remarkable turnaround in her fortunes: she’s polling well, looks much more assured and is taking the fight to Labour and Reform. As she starts to win over the party and the commentariat, can she win over the country?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.To hear Tim’s interview with Kemi, go to spectator.com/kemi