Chatting GPT

Every company has a CFO. Almost none has anyone whose job is time.Dr Atif Ansar has spent fifteen years at Oxford measuring what happens to the world's biggest projects between the promise and the ribbon cutting. Dams that double their budget. Rail lines that spend four years building a schedule and open four years late. And an uncomfortable finding: the countries famous for building well suffer the same overruns as everyone else.His argument is that we have built an entire profession around controlling cost while leaving time almost ungoverned. There is no double-entry accounting for time. Nobody invoices for it. Yet time is the scarcer commodity, and it is far easier to measure than money.He talks about where AI genuinely changes this and where it is still a slide in a pitch deck, why he thinks contracts should guarantee a maximum time rather than a maximum price, and what that would do to professional indemnity.Plus a question from an architect in Dublin that almost nobody in the industry wants to answer out loud.Guest BioDr Atif Ansar is co-founder and executive chairman of Foresight, an Oxford-based platform that uses AI to forecast and accelerate delivery on major capital projects. He is also an academic at the University of Oxford's Saïd Business School, where he has worked since 2006. For fifteen years he and his colleagues have studied why megaprojects, anything costing roughly a billion euros or more, come in late and over budget.Show NotesThe most expensive belief in the built environment: that your estimate at final investment decision is what you will actually payHow the Oxford team measures overruns, using approved budgets at the start and national audit reports at the endWhy dams double their budgets, rail runs about thirty per cent over, and the Olympics almost never run lateWhy being good at building does not save you, from Berlin Airport to Stuttgart stationTactical AI, which is everywhere, against strategic AI, which takes executive courageThe Hong Kong rail line that spent four years building a schedule and opened four years lateThink slow, act fast, and why organisations that intend to think slowly still fail at itThe chief time officer: no double-entry accounting for time, no invoicing for it, no governance around itGuaranteed maximum time contracts instead of guaranteed maximum price, and what that does to professional indemnityA Dublin architect's question: if AI halves the hours, does the fee drop?The semiconductor fab leader who stopped design at 30, 60 and 90 per cent, and what AI would change about itWhere to start on Monday: find your time data, index it weekly, and take small variances seriouslyGuest LinksDr Atif Ansar on LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/dr-atif-ansar-940bab1Foresight: https://www.foresight.worksAtif Ansar at Oxford Saïd Business School: https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/about-us/people/atif-ansarResources MentionedDaniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2002: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2002/kahneman/facts/Bent Flyvbjerg, How Big Things Get Done, where think slow, act fast is set out: https://sites.prh.com/how-big-things-get-done-bookKathleen Eisenhardt, Stanford, on information intensity and velocity: https://profiles.stanford.edu/kathleen-eisenhardtClayton Christensen, Harvard Business School: https://www.hbs.edu/news/releases/Pages/clayton-christensen-obituary.aspxUK National Audit Office: https://www.nao.org.ukOracle Primavera P6: https://www.oracle.com/construction-engineering/primavera-p6/Toyota Production System, covering the and on cord: https://global.toyota/en/company/vision-and-philosophy/production-system/index.html