Breaking Down: Collapse

Let's hit again on some ways the models are a mess, but today in regards to Sea Level Rise...One Wrong Variable in a Climate Formula Could Mean Sea Levels Rise 35% Faster Than Current Models ShowSaltwater is closing in on coastal groundwater, putting billions and food supplies at riskLong-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise | Scientific ReportsVenice is threatened by rising sea levels. Will the city be forced to relocate? | Euronews

I discuss 3 articles highlighting new research on methane emissions, showing that the models are undercounting their impacts and severity. Hidden ocean feedback loop could accelerate climate change100 Times Worse? Thawing Permafrost May Be More Dangerous Than Previously ThoughtMeasurement of Gas Fraction and Gas Permeability of Thawing Permafrost Caused by Climate Change - Glover - 2026 - Earth's Future - Wiley Online LibraryNon-producing oil and gas wells may emit microbial methane at rates 1,000 times higher than previously estimatedWhy do we compare methane to carbon dioxide over a 100-year timeframe? Are we underrating the importance of methane emissions? | MIT Climate Portal

Sources:Poll: Americans worry Trump will seize ballots, voting machines in midtermsExclusive | Trump Promises Mass Pardons to Staff Before Leaving Office - WSJProposed Amendment: Congress Can Nullify Presidential Pardons. (119_HJRES_135)US edges closer to popular vote deciding winner of presidential elections | US politics | The GuardianTrump Says Israel And Lebanon’s Leaders Will Speak, Hegseth Gives Iran War Update: Live Updates | HuffPost Latest News‘It’s absolutely wrong’: Vietnam vet sues to stop construction of ‘vain’ Trump arch in DCUSPS suspends contributions to employee pensions after warning of "cash crisis" - CBS NewsIs Operation Epic Fury Illegal? Legal Experts Warn Donald Trump Could Face War Crime Violations | IBTimes UKTrump Fires Judges Who Blocked Deportations of Student Activists Rümeysa Öztürk and Mohsen Mahdawi — “[The Trump administration is eroding] the concept of procedural due process, the idea that you get to have a hearing in the United States…” : r/lawTrump Mostly Fired Black Agency Officials, New Lawsuit SaysTrump says he’ll fire Powell next month if he stays in his role at the Fed | CNN BusinessICE is now flagging people that protest against them for punishment e.g. by cancelling their Global Entry credentials. They are reportedly using facial recognition scanning software by Palantir to track and tag people exercising First Amendment rights to protest and congregate. : r/lawPosts/Comments about recent ICE enforcement efforts are now prohibited : r/GlobalEntryThe Tech Arsenal That ICE Has Deployed in Minneapolis - The New York TimesTennessee’s Charlie Kirk Act bans student walkouts, protects conservative speakers | WPLN NewsFeds Try Secret Grand Jury to Unmask Reddit ICE Critic

Sources:Greenland’s Ice Is Melting Faster Than Ever, and Scientists Are AlarmedLakes forming next to Greenland's melting ice sheet are speeding up glacier flowAMOC collapse could turn Southern Ocean into carbon source, adding 0.2°C to global warmingShifting Gulf Stream may signal an ocean current collapse is next - Earth.comRecord high ocean temperatures off southern California raise fears of prolonged marine heatwave | US news | The GuardianWildfires are spreading into places that rarely burned before - Earth.comSummer is getting longer, and it's happening faster than we thought‘Non-survivable’: heatwaves are already breaching human limits, with worse to come, study finds | Climate crisis | The GuardianArctic ice at lowest in marcch ever : r/collapseArctic: Sea-Ice Concentration/Extent – Zachary Labe

The Philippines is a great example of a nation on the brink due to an externality, because of their heavy reliance on imported oil.Nation on brink: this oil crisis may destroy everything we built | Inquirer OpinionDOE: Philippines’ fuel supply can last up to 50.42 days

Probabilities are increasing for a "Very Strong El Nino" this summer or fall. What are the potential impacts?To date, 2026 is averaging 1.48°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This is striking because we're still in ENSO-neutral conditions, with El Niño on its way. : r/collapseSuper El Niño next year? Here's the probability of one | king5.comBuckle Up! Gonna be a wild 12 months coming up : r/collapseECMWF | ChartsPossible super El Niño could bring extreme heat, droughts, strong floods - The Washington PostA Super El Niño is coming. Here’s how a hotter ocean could change the weather near you | CNNIran war: Why a super El Niño event poses fresh risks to food costs

A new paper suggests the carrying capacity of earth is 2.5 billion, just under a third of the current population. What say you? Realistic, or too high or low?Earth can no longer sustain the global human population - Earth.com

Sources:Democrats introduce impeachment articles against Trump and Hegseth as nearly 100 lawmakers call for 25th Amendment | The IndependentTrump uses the language of annihilation to threaten Iran | AP NewsHouse Democrat announces impeachment push against Hegseth over Iran warTrump pulls back on Iran threats after warning a 'civilization will die tonight' if deal isn't reached | PBS NewsTrump threatens 'bigger and stronger' attacks if Iran doesn’t comply with 'real agreement'With Trump Threatening Genocide in Iran, Military Must Disobey His Orders, Former Pentagon Officials SayTrump threats cause dilemma for US officers: disobey orders or commit war crimes | War crimes | The GuardianPope says Trump's threat to destroy Iranian civilization is 'unacceptable' | AP NewsPentagon, White House Push Back on Alleged Remarks Made to Pope, Vatican | Military.comTrump threatens CNN over its Iran coverage moments after announcing ceasefire plan | The IndependentFlorida can fund religious charter schools, ‘encourage’ religion, state AG says | firstcoastnews.comSupreme Court vacates Steve Bannon contempt-of-Congress charges - ABC NewsTrump announces ‘fraud’ crackdown in Democratic states as arrests begin in California | Donald Trump | The GuardianDeSantis signs Florida law to label groups as terrorists and expel student supportersExclusive: FBI’s New Political Pre-Crime CenterActing attorney general: Trump has ‘right’ to order investigations into his enemies - Democracy Docket

What a fun little game we play. Step 1: Scientific consensus is too conservative. Step 2: Something happens "shocking scientists". Step 3: Articles are released describing how it happened faster than expected, but don't worry because someone will fix it. Step 4: No changes are made, and the models remain conservative. Repeat.Earth is warming faster than previously estimated, new study shows - Los Angeles TimesUh-Oh—Global Warming Is Actually Speeding Up, Scientists SayThawing permafrost becomes 25 to 100 times more permeable, experiments find‘On a whole other level’: rapid snow melt-off in American west stuns scientists | US weather | The GuardianAmazon wildfires have released far more carbon than we thought - Earth.com