Behind the Money

On November 5, voters in the US will head to the polls to decide who should be the next president: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. But over the past several months, people from around the world have been placing millions of dollars on who will win that race. As interest in betting on US politics reaches a new high, the FT’s Oliver Roeder and Sam Learner explain how these markets work and what can (and can’t) be learned from them. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Prediction markets can tell the future. Why is the US so afraid of them?Take political betting markets literally, not seriouslyWhat the polls can’t tell us about America’s election- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Attend the FT Global Banking Summit, December 3 and 4 in London: Enter BTM20 for a 20% discount (applicable on all ticket types), register here.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

When it comes to trading, Wall Street’s investment banks are falling further behind. And independent trading firms, such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities, are taking the lead in everything from stocks and options to derivatives and crypto. The trading firms argue that they’ve made the process more efficient, but what risks does that carry? The FT’s US banking editor Joshua Franklin explains.   Clips from Lionsgate- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:New titans of Wall Street: how trading firms stole a march on big banksNew titans of Wall Street: how Jane Street rode the ETF wave to ‘obscene’ riches‘King of the geeks’: how Alex Gerko built a British trading titan The limits of bond market electronification- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On X, follow Joshua Franklin (@FTJFranklin) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com 

After the financial crisis, dealmaking among banks in different countries in Europe fell to a standstill. But recently, Italian lender UniCredit revealed that it had built up a stake in Germany’s Commerzbank, prompting discussions of a possible tie-up. EU policymakers and politicians believe cross-border deals like this could unlock European banking and make it more competitive globally. So why is there resistance? The FT’s European banking correspondent Owen Walker explains. Clips from Bloomberg, BBC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Andrea Orcel plots UniCredit’s boldest move yet on CommerzbankAndrea Orcel, Commerzbank and the redemption tradeEurope’s most notorious banking dealmaker returns- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On X, follow Owen Walker (@OwenWalker0) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

After mounting a comeback, Netflix shares recently hit all-time highs. But its success is in stark contrast to the rest of Hollywood, which is struggling to adapt in an industry that is becoming more and more dominated by tech companies. The FT’s Los Angeles bureau chief Chris Grimes explains how Netflix came out on top and how its dominance could change the rules of Hollywood.Clips from AP Archive, CBS, Evening Standard, Reuters, NBC- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:How Netflix won the streaming warsNetflix profits surge after password-sharing crackdownStreaming wars are over and Netflix wonNetflix faces tough battle in advertising wars- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On X, follow Chris Grimes (@grimes_ce) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Volkswagen is facing a crisis. Often considered a symbol of Germany’s industrial power, it’s now reckoning with a difficult transition to electric vehicles, among other issues. And now, management is considering breaking a long-held taboo: closing German factories. Patricia Nilsson, the FT’s Frankfurt correspondent, heads to VW’s headquarters in Wolfsburg to examine the fallout and what’s next.    Clips from Bloomberg, DW News, CNN- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:For European carmakers, EVs are a Catch-22Why Volkswagen is seeking to break the taboo of closing German plantsVW audit of Xinjiang plant failed to meet international standards- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On X, follow Patricia Nilsson (@patricianilsson) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Companies in Japan have long avoided foreign acquisitions. But Canada-based Alimentation Couche-Tard’s recent unsolicited bid for the owner of the 7-Eleven convenience store chain is testing that premise. The FT’s Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis examines how these events could shape corporate Japan’s future.  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:The takeover fight that could reshape Japan After 7-Eleven, Japan’s M&A scene may never be the same again7-Eleven bid is the next stage in revitalising corporate Japan - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On X, follow Leo Lewis (@urbandirt) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

As Jay Powell’s Federal Reserve contemplates making the first interest rate cut in more than two years, we’re taking a step back with the FT’s US financial commentator Robert Armstrong. How did Powell tame inflation without crashing the economy? And how might history judge his leadership?Clips from Associated Press - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Is Jay Powell lucky or good?Remain calm Martin Sandbu’s column: A self-congratulatory inflation narrative at Jackson Hole - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On X, follow Robert Armstrong (@rbrtrmstrng) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Want to hear more from Rob? Listen to the Unhedged podcast. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

This week, we’re revisiting an episode from last year. For decades, the global centre for oil trading has been Geneva, Switzerland. But Russia’s war in Ukraine changed that. Sanctions have made it harder for western traders to move Russian oil. Now, traders are flocking to a new trading hub that has no restrictions on oil from Russia: the United Arab Emirates. The FT’s Tom Wilson explains how this shift has helped the UAE replace Switzerland, and whether the global energy industry is shifting away from western economies. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:How Dubai became ‘the new Geneva’ for Russian oil tradeSwitzerland questions oil trader over sidestep of Russian sanctionsLetter: Energy trading is opaque — and that suits Big Oil- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pass using promo code FTPodcast at: ft.com/festival- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On X, follow Tom Wilson (@thomas_m_wilson) and Michela Tindera (@mtindera07), or follow Michela on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read the transcript of this episode which was first aired in August 2023