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Basis Points
Kerr Neilson on oil shocks and why gold will hit $8,000
Kerr Neilson, the legendary contrarian investor behind Platinum, lays out a bold case for why the next decade may belong not to AI darlings.
He argues markets are entering a period of profound disruption, pointing to geopolitical fragmentation, war in the Middle East, and fragile global oil supply as long-term threats- warning these forces are reshaping markets.
Beyond the macro themes, he offers practical insights for advisers: the dangers of crowded trades, the inefficiencies created by passive investing, and the importance of contrarian thinking in an ETF-dominated world.
His message is clear. The biggest opportunities often lie where capital has been scarce.
In this episode:
00:00 Why Contrarian Investing Still Works
03:00 Where ETF Crowding Creates Opportunity
06:00 How Oil Shocks Could Reshape Portfolios
08:42 Balancing Gold, Cash And Real Assets
11:20 What Samsung And Platinum Signal
16:10 Where Advisers May Find Mispriced Value
šĀ Stocks and ETFs Mentioned:
Samsung (KRX: 005930)
Impala (JSE: IMP)
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR)
Sky Metals (ASX: SKY)
Valterra Platinum (JSE: VTR)
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CPD Points: This episode is accredited for the following CPD points by the Financial Advice Association of Australia (FAAA).
0.50 Total Hours
Knowledge Requirements: Managed Investments (0.50 hour) | Legislated CPD Area: Technical Competence (0.50 hour)
Complete the quiz here to claim your points
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Basis Points is a product of Equity Mates Media.
This podcast is intended for education and entertainment purposes. Any advice is general advice only, and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, needs or objectives. Before acting on general advice, you should consider if it is relevant to your needs and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement. And if you are unsure, please speak to a financial professional.
Equity Mates Media operates under Australian Financial Services Licence 540697.
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Big Things Ahead: Ally Selby joins Basis Points
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Why the US underperformed in 2025 - and why it will happen again - Cameron Gleeson
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The risk hiding in your clientās portfolio - Ben Preston | Orbis Investments
33:35||Season 1āConventional wisdom will tell you that the lowest risk portfolio you can have is to have 70% of your assets in one countryā¦that's a violation of common sense.āBen Preston Portfolio Manager at Orbis Investments, warns that in markets dominated by a handful of mega-caps, portfolios that look diversified on the surface- may be carrying far more risk than advisors realise.Ā We sat down with Ben to unpack where diversification breaks down and find out how advisors can better identify this hidden concentration risk.Ā In this episode, youāll learn:How benchmark alignment can increase portfolio risk in narrow markets.Why historical bubbles reveal the dangers of perceived diversification.Practical ways to assess diversification across geographies, styles, and currencies.Chapters:00:00:00 ā Rethinking Portfolio Diversification Risk00:05:45 ā Understanding Todayās Narrow Market00:09:01 ā Benchmarking And Concentration Exposure00:14:15 ā Defining Diversification Across Scenarios00:18:52 ā Broadening AI Exposure Beyond The US00:22:11 ā Currency Management As A Portfolio InputšĀ Stocks and ETFs Mentioned: NVIDIA, META, SK Hynix Inc. SK Square Co. Ltd, ASML. TSMC, Alphabet, Next Plc, PDD Holdings.āāāCPD Points: This episode is accredited for the following CPD points by the Financial Advice Association of Australia (FAAA). Complete the quiz here to claim your points.0.5 Total HoursĀ Knowledge Requirements: Managed Investments (0.50 hour)Legislated CPD Area: Technical Competence (0.50 hour)āāāThis episode has been sponsored by Orbis Investments.If you would like to learn more about Orbisā contrarian investment approach can offer a true point of diversification when constructing client portfolios, click here.Thank you to Orbis for helping us keep all of our content free and accessible.āāāWant more Basis Points?Sign up to the Basis Points emailJoin the conversation on LinkedInWatch all episodes in full and relive some of our favourite clips on YouTubeāāāBasis Points is a product of Equity Mates Media.This podcast is intended for education and entertainment purposes. Any advice is general advice only, and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, needs or objectives. Before acting on general advice, you should consider if it is relevant to your needs and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement. And if you are unsure, please speak to a financial professional.Equity Mates Media operates under Australian Financial Services Licence 540697.