Share

cover art for Forecasting AI's Impact on the Economy with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus

Scaling Laws

Forecasting AI's Impact on the Economy with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus

Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus, joins Kevin Frazier to unpack new forecasts on how AI could reshape the labor market over the next decade.

The conversation centers on a striking divergence between Metaculus forecasts and projections from institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics—raising fundamental questions about whether existing tools for understanding the economy can keep pace with rapid technological change.


Deger walks through key findings from the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, including:

  • A potential decline in overall employment by 2035
  • Increased pressure on entry-level workers and early-career pipelines
  • The emergence of “lean” firms generating more value with fewer employees
  • A counterintuitive “wage paradox,” where fewer jobs may coincide with higher wages
  • The growing role of political power, regulation, and licensing in shaping labor outcomes

The discussion also explores second-order effects, including how contraction in high-paying sectors could ripple through local economies, and what a shift away from traditional four-year degrees might mean for students and policymakers.


Finally, Deger situates these forecasts within a broader vision: forecasting as a form of epistemic infrastructure. As AI accelerates change, the ability to form accurate beliefs about the future—and update them quickly—may become a core component of effective governance.


*** - This episode was recorded on April 23, 2026. Metaculus is a live platform. It's likely that forecasts mentioned have subsequently changed.




More episodes

View all episodes

  • Founders & Founders: Dhruv Diddi of Solo Tech

    48:02|
    Dhruv Diddi, founder of Solo Tech, joins Kevin Frazier, the AI Innovation and Law Fellow at the University of Texas School of Law and a Senior Editor at Lawfare, to discuss the emerging frontier of Physical AI. Solo Tech builds infrastructure that allows developers to deploy AI models directly onto robots and edge devices rather than relying on cloud-based computation. In other words, think about allowing AI systems to operate in remote areas that have traditionally struggled to leverage the latest and greatest tech.Kevin and Dhruv look into what it takes to move AI systems out of digital environments and into the physical world. They also chat about the idea of "gyms" for AI and policy challenges associated with highly-sophisticated robots becoming more ubiquitious. 
  • "The God Test": AI as Cosmic Reckoning, with Robert Wright

    52:36|
    Alan Rozenshtein, Research Director at Lawfare, spoke with Robert Wright—author of Nonzero, The Moral Animal, The Evolution of God, and Why Buddhism Is True, and the writer behind the NonZero Newsletter and podcast—about his new book, The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning, which argues that AI is an evolutionary threshold on the scale of the entire history of life, that we are collectively failing to grasp its magnitude, and that rising to the challenge will require both new forms of international governance and an expansion of human moral and cognitive perspective. The conversation covered the multiple meanings of the book's title and what it means to view AI from a "cosmic" perspective; whether the public is finally starting to "feel the AGI" and where skepticism about AI's capabilities now comes from; how large language models are trained and Wright's claim that we have built "machines that create machines that think"; whether these systems genuinely understand, what Searle's Chinese Room and Nagel's "what is it like to be a bat?" have to do with it, and the open question of AI moral patienthood; the two families of AI risk—bad actors empowered by AI versus AI itself going rogue—and why the near-term disruption to jobs, relationships, and security may matter most; the "But China!" argument against AI regulation, China hawkishness, and why Wright thinks racing toward superintelligence is dangerously destabilizing; the case for "global governance" over "world government" and the perils of concentrating AI power at home; and why a book about AI and geopolitics closes with a call for mindfulness, cognitive empathy, and transcending the psychology of tribalism.
  • Justified Posteriors join Scaling Laws: Two economists and two lawyers walk into a podcast studio

    01:16:41|
    In this cross-pod episode, Alan and Kevin join Seth Benzell and Andrey Fradkin of Justified Posteriors to explore a big question: what should AI be for?The conversation begins with Pope Leo XIV’s recent encyclical. The group discusses how economists should think about the Church’s role in AI debates, what counts as an AI-related market failure, whether moral and religious institutions can help address social harms, and whether such interventions risk crowding out private action or local experimentation.The episode then turns to the emerging idea of positive alignment. A recent paper, Positive Alignment: Artificial Intelligence for Human Flourishing, argues that AI alignment has focused too heavily on negative alignment—preventing harms such as manipulation, bias, dangerous outputs, and misuse—and should also ask how AI systems can actively support autonomy, wisdom, truth-seeking, pluralism, and human flourishing.
  • Explain to Shane (Tews) and Scaling Laws

    47:56|
    Shane Tews, host of Explain to Shane and nonresident senior fellow at AEI, joins Kevin Frazier, director of the AI Innovation and Law Program at the University of Texas School of Law and a senior fellow at the Abundance Institute, for a cross-post conversation about the AI and cyber executive order, workforce disruption, and the future of education. They also share their respective research agendas for the summer.
  • Lawyering on the Frontier with Janel Thamkul

    50:10|
    Janel Thamkul, former frontier counsel team member at Anthropic, joins Kevin Frazier to discuss what it means to practice law at the frontier of AI.This episode starts with a review of Janel’s fascinating and varied background. Next, she walks through her initial exploration of a career in art before eventually pivoting to the law based on some very formative experiences. Kevin and Janel then investigate some of the most pressing and open questions related to transformative AI.
  • Radical Optionality: Governing Transformative AI, with Christoph Winter and Charlie Bullock

    43:00|
    Alan Rozenshtein, Research Director at Lawfare and Visiting Senior Fellow at the Institute for Law & AI (LawAI), spoke with Christoph Winter, LawAI Founding Director and Assistant Professor of Law and AI at the University of Cambridge, and LawAI Senior Research Fellow Charlie Bullock, about their new paper "Radical Optionality: Governing Transformative AI Under Uncertainty," which argues that, given the possibility of transformative AI within the next decade and deep uncertainty about its capabilities and risks, governments should aggressively build the institutional capacity to regulate competently when needed, rather than either deferring to the market or locking in premature substantive rules. The conversation covered the four foundational assumptions underlying the paper and what makes the optionality "radical"; the difficulty of regulating an exponentially improving and poorly understood technology and what it means to "feel the AGI"; why a pure permissionless-innovation approach breaks down once the national-security implications of transformative AI come into view; why the European precautionary approach risks regulating without the expertise to enforce; the centrality of hiring and talent and what an adequately funded U.S. counterpart to the UK AI Security Institute would look like; the concrete work that such an agency would do, including evaluations, standard-setting, and procurement-side cybersecurity requirements modeled on CMMC; the importance of building international information-sharing channels among liberal democracies before they are urgently needed; and the case against broad federal preemption of state AI laws before any federal regulatory framework exists.
  • Tom Davidson on the Importance of AI Character

    51:34|
    Tom Davidson joins Kevin Frazier, AI Innovation and Law Fellow at the University of Texas School of Law and a Senior Editor at Lawfare, to discuss AI timelines, explosive economic growth, and the increasingly urgent debate over “AI character” — the behavioral traits and decision-making tendencies embedded into advanced AI systems.Drawing on Davidson’s recent paper, “The Importance of AI Character,” which he co-authored with Will MacAskill, their conversation explores how the character of future AI systems may influence democratic governance, military conflict, institutional trust, and even the long-run trajectory of civilization. The discussion also examines the key influences on character development and which actors should ultimately play a part in dictating the default values and behaviors of AI models. You may also enjoy Tom's article on AI as advisors.
  • Governing the Frontier with Owen Larter of Google DeepMind

    45:45|
    Owen Larter, Senior Director and Head of Frontier Policy and Public Affairs at Google DeepMind, joins Kevin Frazier, AI Innovation and Law Fellow at the University of Texas School of Law and a Senior Editor at Lawfare, to provide an inside look at how DeepMind approaches frontier governance. The conversation moves beyond the familiar U.S.-EU-China framing of AI policy to examine international coordination after the recent U.S.-China summit, Google DeepMind’s national AI partnerships, the role of the Frontier Model Forum, and the challenge of expanding AI adoption. Kevin and Owen also discuss policy formation inside frontier AI companies. They close with an examination of the need to build a deeper AI policy talent pipeline.
  • Inside the Fight to Detect and Govern Synthetic Abuse with Melissa Hutchins of Certifi AI

    01:02:24|
    Melissa Hutchins, founder and CEO of Certifi AI, joins Kevin Frazier, AI Innovation and Law Fellow at the University of Texas School of Law and a Senior Editor at Lawfare, to discuss the rise of deepfakes, non-consensual sexually explicit imagery, and the growing policy fight over AI-generated harms online.Drawing from both her professional work and her personal experience as a victim of cyberstalking, Melissa explains how synthetic media is changing the threat landscape for individuals, platforms, and policymakers alike. The duo also unpack proposals like the Take It Down Act, the challenges posed by a fragmented patchwork of state AI laws, and what it’s like building an AI company from Seattle rather than Silicon Valley.