{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/fb0f2fbb-330b-40fe-a60b-bafdff9b8e81?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"May Rolls the Dice","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d237.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>David and Helen talk through the latest twist in the Brexit tale:&nbsp;Theresa May's offer to work with Labour to get some version of Brexit&nbsp;over the line.&nbsp;Can the two parties ever agree on what that version is?&nbsp;Could any agreement be made to stick?&nbsp;And if they can't agree, what&nbsp;happens next?&nbsp;Plus we talk about whether May's offer to stand down is&nbsp;still in effect and we ask what all this might mean for the ERG, the&nbsp;DUP, the SNP and the EU.</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Talking Points: </strong></p><p><br></p><p>On Tuesday night, Theresa May changed strategies: instead of courting Brexiteers and the DUP to get her withdrawal agreement through, she’s seeking Labour Party support.</p><ul><li>But she can’t form an understanding with Corbyn about the future while also promising to step down as PM if the withdrawal agreement is passed.</li><li>Labour fears run deep: Since the late 80s, parts of the party have seen the EU as a constraint on the ultra-right wing side of the Conservative Party.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>There are only two ways the Parliament can stop no deal: pass the withdrawal agreement or revoke Article 50.</p><ul><li>The EU could still refuse another extension.</li><li>Whatever the calculations Macron or Merkel might make, the European Parliament elections are a short-term contingency, and Brexit has the potential to cause chaos.</li><li>The EU keep saying that they want clarity about what the UK is going to do—but British domestic politics cannot provide that right now.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The only way an agreement with Labour will work is if they believe that May’s government will continue through the end of the year. Is that possible?</p><ul><li>What about the Labour leadership? When Corbyn seems to move toward accepting Brexit, he gets pulled back.</li><li>In the last general election, the most irreconcilable remainers voted for a Labour party that was committed to voting to leave the EU instead of the party that represented their views (the Lib Dems). A lot of difficulties followed from this.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>What about the DUP?</p><ul><li>They’re more worried about betrayal at the hands of the Conservatives than a Corbyn government.</li><li>Arlene Foster has admitted that the Union comes before Brexit.</li><li>There is no constitutional or institutional channel for English nationalism.</li><li>If Brexit is thwarted because of Northern Ireland, there will probably be some kind of backlash.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The basic fact of British political life is that there is no transmission mechanism from the legislative to the executive of an expression of will.</p><ul><li>Parliament wants to say they have no confidence in the government to conduct these negotiations, but they aren’t willing to bring the government down.</li><li>Could&nbsp;the constitution assert itself? Could the government fall?</li><li>The easiest way out might be if the EU denies an extension, leading to a binary choice between the withdrawal agreement and no deal.</li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Mentioned in this Episode:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/1112730782123126785\" target=\"_blank\">Richard Drax’s statement on the withdrawal agreement</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/01/remainers-europe-excise-british-cancer\" target=\"_blank\">On EU pessimism and transmission mechanisms</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Further Learning:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/139-adam-tooze-on-europe\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Tooze on Europe</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/153-moment-of-truth\" target=\"_blank\">The last time we talked Brexit</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/151-italy-vs-france-vs-brexit\" target=\"_blank\">...and the time before that</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\"...","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}