{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/f9e593e7-806b-4ab8-8a9d-35cde3fe87e5?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Autumn of Chaos","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d1ab.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>Boris Johnson is off to see the Queen to become her 14th (!)&nbsp;Prime Minister, but where might he be taking the country this autumn?&nbsp;&nbsp;We try to work through the various Brexit scenarios, from a renegotiated&nbsp;Withdrawal Agreement to a crash no-deal exit.&nbsp;Can the backstop be&nbsp;changed?&nbsp;What is a 'standstill' arrangement?&nbsp;Will Macron force the&nbsp;issue?&nbsp;Plus we explore whether an early election or a second referendum&nbsp;can really provide a way out of the mess.&nbsp;Something's got to give -&nbsp;what will it be?&nbsp;With Helen Thompson, Catherine Barnard and Chris&nbsp;Bickerton.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Talking Points:&nbsp;</strong></p><p><br></p><p>Can you change the backstop?</p><ul><li>Deep changes seem unlikely, though maybe some changes around the edges would make it more sellable.</li><li>If the DUP won’t swallow it, will Johnson have to essentially sacrifice Northern Ireland to get a deal?</li><li>But cutting out the DUP presents a problem for parliamentary arithmetics.&nbsp;</li><li>The things that Johnson wants to discuss are in the withdrawal agreement. Europe is not open to talking about these things.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>What is GATT Article 24 5b?</p><ul><li>This is the idea that you could have a “quick and dirty” free trade agreement ready to go on the 31 Oct.&nbsp;</li><li>The trouble is that the law gets in the way: the EU has to agree with it.</li><li>From the EU perspective, any agreement will require that the UK addresses citizens rights, money, and the backstop.</li><li>The idea that there’s some kind of standstill option is a unicorn.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>There’s a change of leadership in the EU as well. Does it make any difference?</p><ul><li>The instability in German politics deserves more attention.</li><li>The Franco-German relationship is in a worse place than it was in March.</li><li>If the German position is weakened, this could strengthen Macron and the harder line.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>When will the moment of truth come?</p><ul><li>The sequencing here is incredibly complex.</li><li>At some point, Johnson’s government will have to make a choice. Will it be over an election? Over no deal?</li><li>A confidence vote isn’t a last resort for Tory remainers, but it’s very close to it.</li><li>We also need to think more about the legal realities of a no deal Brexit.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Mentioned in this Episode:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/169-who-is-boris-johnson\" target=\"_blank\">Who is Boris Johnson?&nbsp;</a></li><li><a href=\"https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/no-deal-brexit-and-wto-article-24-explained/\" target=\"_blank\">More on GATT Article 24</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Further Learning:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://soundcloud.com/catherine-barnard/the-tory-leadership-race-brexit-negotiations\" target=\"_blank\">Catherine on the EU and the conservative leadership race</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/07/germany-have-allowed-non-nato-member-ireland-set-parameters-brexit-gamble\" target=\"_blank\">Helen on geopolitics, the EU, and Brexit</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}