{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/d62ebc61-c7b4-4594-8b26-c12780f913ee?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Some Brexit Scenarios","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d0cb.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>For our last pre-election episode we talk with Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe, about what might happen to Brexit once the vote is done.&nbsp;What choices does Johnson face if he wins?&nbsp;What paths are there to a second referendum if he loses?&nbsp;And what will remainers do if Britain does finally leave the EU?&nbsp;Plus we discuss what the rest of Europe makes of it all.&nbsp;With Helen Thompson.&nbsp;Tomorrow, we talk about the result of the election as it happens.</p><p><br></p><p>Talking Points:&nbsp;</p><p><br></p><p>There are basically two scenarios: Johnson gets a majority and the withdrawal bill passes, or there’s a hung parliament.</p><ul><li>The first is slightly more probable, but the margins are getting closer.</li><li>If Johnson has a majority of even one, the UK will probably leave.</li><li>But we still don’t know what Johnson wants. Will he be a prisoner to the ERG or will he be a one nation Tory and go for a softer Brexit?</li><li>The next crunch point will be the end of June with the extension for transition.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>EU leaders have been assuming a Johnson victory.</p><ul><li>There’s a conversation in Brussels about how flexible the EU should be, given Johnson’s comments on European trade.</li><li>Relations within the EU have gotten more fraught.</li><li>What about the UK’s security relationship with the EU?&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Would a hung parliament inevitably lead to a second referendum?</p><ul><li>It’s not clear that a Corbyn minority government could legislate for a referendum. You might actually get another election.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The gap between Labour and the Conservatives is as wide as it has been in recent history.</p><ul><li>The Lib Dems have again fallen behind.</li><li>The public seems to be uncomfortable with revoke. It’s not a vote winner.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>If the UK leaves, where do the remainers go?&nbsp;</p><ul><li>It doesn’t seem that project rejoin would have much steam in the short term.</li><li>If Johnson wins, it will be on less than half of the vote. And the likelihood of a fifth Conservative victory is unlikely.&nbsp;</li><li>There is a reason for Labour to believe that next time is their real chance.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/23/world/europe/nato-france-germany.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">On the tension between Macron and Merkel</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/12/this-election-will-change-britain-and-europe-for-good/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Robert Tombs in the Spectator.</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://twitter.com/anandMenon1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Follow Anand on Twitter here</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/18/boris-johnson-get-brexit-done-tories-majority-eu\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Anand on negotiating a trade deal with Europe</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}