{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/b8f4564a-5afd-4eee-9948-3b2944b9c8dd?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Oh Iowa!","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d06b.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>We try to peer through the chaos in Iowa to see who won, who lost and what it means for the future of this presidential race and for American democracy.&nbsp;Are we heading towards a Bernie vs Bloomberg showdown?&nbsp;What might happen at a brokered convention?&nbsp;And how much damage has been done to the Democratic party brand?&nbsp;Plus we review Trump's State of the Union address.&nbsp;Great theatre - but was it great politics?&nbsp;With Helen Thompson and Gary Gerstle.</p><p><br></p><p>There were no winners in Iowa.&nbsp;</p><ul><li>We still don’t know who actually won.</li><li>Pete didn’t do well enough to break out. Bernie did well, but not as well as many people thought he would. Warren had a mediocre showing. It was really bad for Biden.&nbsp;</li><li>It was also a bad night for the Democratic Party itself.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Who benefits from Biden’s collapse?</p><ul><li>Can Mayor Pete hold the center? He would need to win New Hampshire and he probably won’t.</li><li>Bloomberg is going all in with an unusual strategy: gambling on a brokered convention and focusing on TV spending and mayoral endorsements.&nbsp;</li><li>His organizational strategy may be clear, but what is his substantive strategy?</li></ul><p><br></p><p>It looks like Sanders will win the fight for the left.</p><ul><li>But can he translate this momentum into votes.</li><li>David thinks that the problem is that there still aren’t enough young people.</li><li>All the craziness has distracted from the fact that turnout in Iowa was much lower than expected.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The Democrats want to frame the election as order versus chaos, but that’s hard to do when the first thing you do is produce chaos.</p><ul><li>Meanwhile, Trump delivered a fairly conventional State of the Union, the economic numbers are good, and his poll numbers are up.</li><li>Can Trump stay in order mode for long?</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.amazon.co.uk/Democracy-Realists-Elections-Responsive-Government/dp/0691178240\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Democracy for Realists</em> by Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">The Iowa results</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2018/129-democracy-for-young-people\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">David’s lecture on Democracy for Young People</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/1924-the-craziest-convention-in-us-history-213708\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">More on the (absolutely wild) 1924 Democratic Convention&nbsp;</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}