{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/b5b5a207-9ff3-4960-ae34-d11f5bf93aa3?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"One-Term Presidents","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3cef3.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>David talks to Helen Thompson and Gary Gerstle about the historical precedents for US presidents losing office after a singleterm.&nbsp;It doesn't happen very often, but it could be about to happen again!&nbsp;Can Trump use the powers of incumbency to prevent it?&nbsp;Can Biden use Trump's growing chaos to seal his fate?&nbsp;Plus we talk about the fall-out from the first presidential debate and we ask how the politics of the Supreme Court might intersect with a contested election result.</p><p><br></p><p>Talking Points:</p><p><br></p><p>One-term presidents are rare in American history.</p><ul><li>Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush are the only presidents in the last 100 years who have lost reelection bids.</li><li>When you take out third party challengers, you’re left with Hoover and Carter, two presidents who both failed to handle a significant national disaster.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The Hoover and Carter cases came at turning points in presidential cycles.</p><ul><li>1932 and 1980 signify profound shifts in political order: from Republican to Democrat, and then from Democrat to Republican.&nbsp;</li><li>There is not a clear dominant party right now.&nbsp;</li><li>You would expect a one-term presidency to be more likely when there isn’t a dominant party.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>In the Carter case, incumbency was perhaps a disadvantage.&nbsp;</p><ul><li>He faced a difficult economic situation as well as the Iranian hostage crisis.&nbsp;</li><li>Both Carter and Hoover got hit by an economic crisis for which the country was not prepared, for which there were no ideal or quick solutions.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>There’s never been a Supreme Court justice appointed and confirmed so quickly or so close to an election.</p><ul><li>The Republican party thinks their future lies with controlling the courts.</li><li>McConnell’s strategy might actually harm Trump in the elections; they are determined to do this even, potentially, at the cost of the presidency.</li><li>If Barrett said she would recuse herself from ruling on the election, McConnell wouldn’t care, but Trump would.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The debate may have been unedifying, but it clarified what was at stake.</p><ul><li>Biden did not make a positive case for himself; his pitch was that he is not Trump.</li><li>The overriding impression of the debate was chaos.</li><li>Trump’s attempt to frame Biden as a creature of the left fell short.&nbsp;</li><li>Trump made the presidency look cheap. The aversion factor matters: which of the candidates do most people find unacceptable?&nbsp;</li><li>But Trump also dragged Biden into the chaos.</li><li>What would happen if a Conservative court legitimated a Biden victory?&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8Z9Kqhrh5c\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">The US Presidential Debate</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/23/hating-on-herbert-hoover\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">‘Hating on Herbert Hoover,’ from <em>The New Yorker</em></a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2018/06/29/624467256/what-happened-with-merrick-garland-in-2016-and-why-it-matters-now\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">What happened with Merrick Garland?&nbsp;</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/us/politics/debate-takeaways.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Six takeaways from the presidential debate from <em>The New York Times</em></a></li><li><a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-debate-poll/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Who won the debate? From 538</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n19/frederick-wilmot-smith/short-cuts\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Frederick Wilmot-Smith in the LRB on the US Supreme Court</a></li><li><a...","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}