{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/6539680c-9f11-42e2-8188-456c5aa20c78?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Adam Tooze on the Global Slowdown","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d150.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>Helen Thompson and Adam Tooze take us beyond Brexit to look at the global situation and the bigger threats we face.&nbsp;Italy, Germany, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Russia, Trump vs. the Fed, the US vs. China, Hong Kong, the dollar, the euro, climate change, oil: an amazingly wide-ranging conversation that somehow manages to connect it all up.</p><p><br></p><p>Talking Points:&nbsp;</p><p><br></p><p>Christine Lagarde will take up her post at the ECB relatively soon. Does her most recent speech fit into a narrative of a French victory in the euro struggles?</p><ul><li>Lagarde has clearly asserted the necessity of continuing the Draghi agenda, but augmenting it with fiscal action. That’s the big question mark.</li><li>There are still fundamental, unresolved issues: banking union and Italy’s sovereign debt.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The condition for making Italian fiscal activism safe would be some agreement to collectivize a large portion of Italy’s sovereign debt. How that’s accounted for, and whose balance sheet it would fall onto is the real issue.</p><ul><li>Do you really want to activate a major fiscal stimulus in the German economy?</li><li>This might be a good moment for a political deal between the North and South because the engine of German manufacturing is slowing down.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>What’s happening in Germany is less to do with the Eurozone and more to do with China and to some extent the Eurodollar system.&nbsp;</p><ul><li>The Germany economy is export-centric. It won’t respond to stimulating domestic demand.</li><li>If we accept that the status quo is dangerous, then fiscal policy has to be more transformative.</li><li>Trying to figure out what is actually causing the weakness in the world economy is perhaps more important than the confrontation between Trump and the Fed.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Something weird is going on in global capital markets, which means that the Americans are suffering basically no bond-market punishment despite extraordinary dysfunction.&nbsp;</p><ul><li>At the same time, interest rates have plunged.</li><li>This allows Trump to politicize things further.</li><li>It’s both a return of the past, and something entirely new.</li><li>The eurozone does appear to have a disciplinary role. The idea of a euro-state leaving the eurozone still seems unconscionable.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>China clearly wants to escape a dollar world. Could this deal with Iran make it possible?</p><ul><li>They want to be able to buy oil in their own currency.</li><li>But the dollar and the U.S. banking system are still America’s ultimate weapons.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>How big is the risk of a major global economic slowdown?&nbsp;</p><ul><li>It’s already happening in Germany, Latin America, South Africa...&nbsp;</li><li>The question is scope: it hasn’t yet spread to the services sector.&nbsp;</li><li>There’s a variety of different economic ailments, but this is a real risk.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/opinion/global-economy.html\" target=\"_blank\">Adam’s recent article in the NYTimes</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/27/why-is-trump-attacking-federal-reserve-we-answer-your-questions/\" target=\"_blank\">Why is Trump attacking the Fed?&nbsp;</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/139-adam-tooze-on-europe\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Tooze on Europe</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/163-adam-tooze-on-us-vs-china\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Tooze on the US vs. China</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}