{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/64fe7c2b-8d09-4888-beb2-9c98abe58404?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Moment of Truth?","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d23e.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>As parliament finally gets the chance to indicate its Brexit&nbsp;preferences -  if it has any - we discuss the real choices now facing MPs&nbsp;and government.&nbsp;What is the sequence of events that would actually&nbsp;prevent a no-deal Brexit?&nbsp;Can the Withdrawal Agreement be separated&nbsp;from the Political Declaration?&nbsp;And if it can, will MPs eventually have&nbsp;to vote for it?&nbsp;Plus we ask how long we can avoid another general&nbsp;election and we discuss whether Theresa May's survival to this point&nbsp;tells us more about her resilience or about the dysfunctionality of&nbsp;British politics.&nbsp;With Helen Thompson, Chris Bickerton, and Catherine&nbsp;Barnard, Professor of EU Law.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Talking Points:</strong></p><p><br></p><p>What is the relationship between the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration?</p><ul><li>The political declaration is about the future; the withdrawal agreement is about wrapping up the past.</li><li>Article 50, which is the basis for the withdrawal agreement, does not allow discussions about the future.</li><li>Anything about the future is done under separate legal provisions.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The only feasible options now are no deal, May’s deal, or revoke article 50.</p><ul><li>Are we underrating the possibility of no deal? How does parliament prevent it if it can’t do anything else.</li><li>Both sides seem to be sticking to the same strategy, which is to put their party first.</li><li>The only thing parliament can do unilaterally is revoke Article 50—everything else depends on the EU. This is the nuclear option.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>There are divisions within the EU over Brexit: Merkel doesn’t want a disruptive Brexit; Macron doesn’t want Britain in the EU.</p><ul><li>A disorderly Brexit poses economic risks for Europe.</li><li>It’s hard to predict what the EU would do about another request for an extension.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Any form of compromise doesn’t work: it’s either too little for remainers or too much for leavers.</p><ul><li>The middle ground, which may be economically sensible, doesn’t work politically.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Have we learned something about the office of the prime minister in all of this?</p><ul><li>It’s really hard to throw people out of office.</li><li>Becoming prime minister now—the risk is enormous that your legacy would almost immediately be one of dramatic failure.</li><li>If the withdrawal agreement passes, people will want the job. But now?</li><li>The underestimated explanation of Theresa May’s resilience is the fixed-term parliament act. This is a fundamentally different constitutional arrangement.</li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Mentioned in this Episode:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000395j/question-time-2019-14032019\" target=\"_blank\">Catherine Barnard on “Question Time”</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Further Learning:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2018/130-the-fate-of-theresa-may\" target=\"_blank\">The Fate of Theresa May</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/139-adam-tooze-on-europe\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Tooze on Europe</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/not-so-fixed-term-parliaments-act\" target=\"_blank\">More on the Fixed-term Parliaments Act</a></li><li><a href=\"https://soundcloud.com/catherine-barnard/professor-catherine-barnard-2903cb-no-13-brexit-delayed\" target=\"_blank\">Catherine Barnard’s podcast</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}