{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/61faf5f9c3af630012f73812?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Putin’s Next Move","description":"<p>David and Helen talk to Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor of the Economist, about what Vladimir Putin hopes&nbsp;to get out of the Ukraine crisis and what anyone can do to stop him.&nbsp;Is some sort of invasion inevitable?&nbsp;Is Russia’s goal to sow dissent or to achieve regime change?&nbsp;What leverage does the rest of world have over Putin&nbsp;and his allies?&nbsp;Plus we explore where the roots of the crisis lie: in 2014, in the end of the Cold War, or even earlier still?</p><p><br></p><p>Talking Points:&nbsp;</p><p><br></p><p>What does Putin want from Ukraine?&nbsp;</p><ul><li>He wants to stop Ukraine’s westward shift, which is about more than NATO.&nbsp;</li><li>Ukraine was probably not ever going to join NATO. In that regard, Putin already has what he wants.</li><li>What else is he upset about? Britain is building a naval base on the Sea of Azov. Britain and the UK are training Ukrainian troops. Weapons are flowing in, too.&nbsp;</li><li>Putin worries about Ukraine becoming a more militarily and economically capable actor.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>What would Putin count as a success in the current crisis?&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Logistically speaking, Putin could stay there for months. But he has troops from the Eastern military district there, who can’t. And the weather will change after March.&nbsp;</li><li>Perhaps the biggest problem is psychological: backing down would look like giving in.&nbsp;</li><li>Does Russia want regime change?</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Kiev seems less convinced about the imminence of an invasion.</p><ul><li>Are they deluded?&nbsp;</li><li>They definitely want to avoid panic, especially economic panic.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>What is different today from 2014?&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Ukraine is in an even worse economic position.&nbsp;</li><li>Ukraine is a transit gas state; Putin has been trying to end that for a long time, and he is getting close with the near completion of Nordstream.</li><li>Another difference is America’s position in the world.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>NATO allies should still feel reasonably secure.</p><ul><li>But in middle areas, such as Ukraine, or the countries in central Asia, things are less certain.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/01/31/how-big-is-russias-military-build-up-around-ukraine\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Shashank’s latest for the Economist: How big is Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine?</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/the-biden-administrations-global-posture-review\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">More on Biden’s global posture review</a></li><li><a href=\"https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86304\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">An interview with Dmitri Trenin: are we on the brink of war?</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2020/217-trump-vs-iran-is-it-for-real\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Our last episode with Shashank</a></li><li><a href=\"https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/26/ukraine-missile-russia-baltics-biden/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">More on javelin missiles in Ukraine</a></li><li><a href=\"https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85749\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">More on the Russia-Belarus integration</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}