{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/3b60cc32-315f-461f-98a7-f1f0940e9817?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Impasse","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d25a.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>We try to cut through the Brexit fog and see what's really out&nbsp;there, from new deals to no deal. Plus we ask some bigger questions:&nbsp;What is the true role of lawyers in politics? Does the EU want regime&nbsp;change? And how will future historians explain this extraordinary&nbsp;period? With Helen Thompson, Chris Bickerton and Kenneth Armstrong.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Talking Points:</strong></p><p><br></p><p>The concessions Theresa May secured made some difference, but if the fear on the Conservative side was about remaining “trapped,” the ways out remain limited.</p><ul><li>There’s no exit unless the EU acts in “bad faith.”</li><li>The good things that came out of this were attempts to provide a path forward that would make sure the backstop is never triggered.</li><li>But the problem remains: ‘What happens if you wind up in the backstop?’</li><li>Finding a way to unilaterally leave the backstop was probably an impossible task.</li><li>There’s a major expectation management problem here.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>If this were a free, anonymous vote, the deal would probably pass. But MP’s, particularly Labour MP’s aren’t going to expend political capital on a deal that won’t pass.</p><ul><li>There has to be a tippling point. The Cox letter killed the chances of that happening.</li><li>Plus, no one believed that this was the last chance, in part because Juncker said there could be an extension.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Politics and law keep clashing into each other.</p><ul><li>What should the role of the attorney general be?</li><li>Cox was both the negotiator and the person who had to turn around and say that that this was undoable.</li><li>He once said that he cares more about his reputation as a barrister than as a politician.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>No deal remains the default, and also the thing that Parliament will not accept.</p><ul><li>The ERG thinks this deal is worse than staying in the EU.</li><li>If no deal looms into view, the government will fall.</li><li>Is the EU line hardening about the terms of an extension?</li></ul><p><br></p><p>In 20-30 years time, will we understand what’s happening now?</p><ul><li>Chris thinks that this shows that the British political system lacked the capacity to deliver on the referendum.</li><li>Helen thinks how we frame this moment will depend on two things: what happens to the EU and what happens to the UK as a multinational state.</li><li>It’s about structural forces, but it’s also about contingencies.</li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Mentioned in this Episode:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://brexittime.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Kenneth’s blog on legal clarifications</a></li><li><a href=\"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/785188/190312_-_Legal_Opinion_on_Joint_Instrument_and_Unilateral_Declaration_co..___2_.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Geoffrey Cox’s letter</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6791053/Hand-heart-Ill-way-beat-backstop-DAN-HODGES-reveals-Attorney-Generals-pledge.html\" target=\"_blank\">That Cox quote</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>Further Learning:</strong></p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/147-endgame\" target=\"_blank\">The last time we talked about Brexit</a></li><li><a href=\"https://unherd.com/2019/02/why-europe-cant-cope/\" target=\"_blank\">Helen on the EU</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2018/130-the-fate-of-theresa-may\" target=\"_blank\">The Fate of Theresa May</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}