{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/3a247c56-37f0-4765-8b77-e91c446173f2?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Niall Ferguson on Catastrophe","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3cdd4.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>We talk to the historian Niall Ferguson about the politics of catastrophe, from pandemics and famines to world wars and climate change.&nbsp;Have we been worrying about the right things?&nbsp;Why have some countries done so much better than others with Covid?&nbsp;And what can history teach us about the worst that can happen?&nbsp;Plus, how likely is it that a cold war between the US and China turns hot?&nbsp;</p><p><br></p><p>Talking Points:</p><p><br></p><p>Niall argues that COVID is more like the Asian flu in ‘57/’58 than the 1918/1919 Spanish flu.</p><ul><li>However the economic response is unprecedented; the Internet made lockdowns at this scale and duration possible.</li><li>Lockdowns were a near panic response that were necessitated by initial political failures in the West.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>When we’re trying to assess the political impact of a disaster, the body count is not the most important thing.</p><ul><li>A disaster can kill a lot of people and be virtually forgotten if it doesn’t have cascading consequences.</li><li>We will probably remember the experience of lockdown more than the mortality rates.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>What did we get wrong about the COVID response?</p><ul><li>Controlling travel early on made a difference, and most Western states did not do that.</li><li>The network structure of a polity is the most important thing in a pandemic, especially in an era of globalized travel.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The distinction between natural and manmade disasters is a false one.</p><ul><li>The scale of impact is a function of how we, collectively and our leaders, individually make decisions.</li><li>Humans do not seem to be very good at thinking pragmatically about risks; we tend to ignore them in practice while simultaneously constructing apocalyptic fantasies.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/321/321473/doom--the-politics-of-catastrophe/9780241488447.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Niall’s book, <em>Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe</em></a></li><li><a href=\"https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/11/what-might-covid-cost-the-u-s-experts-eye-16-trillion/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Larry Summers and David Cutler on the costs of COVID</a></li><li><a href=\"https://blackwells.co.uk/bookshop/product/Destined-for-War-by-Graham-T-Allison-author/9781911617303\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Graham Allison, <em>Destined for War</em></a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/17/how-did-covid-slip-through-taiwans-gold-standard-defences\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">More on Taiwan’s COVID response</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/active-volcano-kilauea-hawaii-agung-mayon-community-culture\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Why do so many people live near active volcanoes?&nbsp;</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.google.com/search?q=new+yorker+seattle+earthquake&amp;oq=new+yorker+seattle+&amp;aqs=chrome.0.0l2j69i57j0i22i30.2880j0j1&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">‘The Really Big One’ (the earthquake that will devastate the Pacific Northwest)&nbsp;</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/137-talking-politics-guide-to-existential-risk\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">The Talking Politics Guide to… Existential Risk</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p><p><br></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}