{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/33ca1841-e750-4f5e-b197-a056dcc96c62?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"Waiting for Boris","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d1b2.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>Barring an act of God, Boris Johnson is going to be the next&nbsp;leader of the Conservative Party.&nbsp;We're exploring what that means in&nbsp;two parts.&nbsp;Today, Helen and David talk about the domestic implications.&nbsp;&nbsp;Can Johnson avoid an election?&nbsp;Can he hold on to the seats he needs&nbsp;while winning others he doesn't have?&nbsp;Will he unite or divide his&nbsp;party?&nbsp;Will Labour be able to stop him either way?&nbsp;Plus we talk about&nbsp;what's at stake for the Tories in Johnson's relationship with Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;Next week: Europe and Brexit.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Talking Points:</strong></p><p><br></p><p>What shifted to make Boris Johnson’s victory almost inevitable?</p><ul><li>We need to go back to the third attempt to get the meaningful vote through the House of Commons. That was Theresa May’s chance.</li><li>After 31 March, the political calculus changed.&nbsp;</li><li>If May had been able to pass her deal, there might have been more of an effort to stop Johnson from becoming PM.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Labour is now the more divided party. And the Conservative Party has united around a very unpopular leader.</p><ul><li>There are some parallels to the United States.</li><li>The Labour remainers have been emboldened since the 31 March, but Labour also looks more divided than it did a few months ago.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Are there enough people in the parliamentary Conservative Party who would be willing to precipitate a general election if Johnson pursued no deal?</p><ul><li>It’s not impossible, but this would be a big deal.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Could Johnson usher in a new relationship with the United States?</p><ul><li>A lot would ride on his relationship with Trump—that’s risky.&nbsp;</li><li>Is there anything that Johnson can say that will not alienate Trump and not alienate the British public?</li></ul><p><br></p><p>The most important decision next week, if Johnson becomes PM, will be who he appoints as Chancellor.&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Whoever it is will likely have a lot of power.</li><li>What happens with Brexit will be crucial to what kind of economic policy comes next.</li><li>The Conservatives will need to maintain their coalition, and probably make up for seats in Scotland.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Will the opposition to a Johnson prime ministership coalesce around Labour or not?</p><ul><li>Last time, the Conservatives committed an act of destruction with the social care issue.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>And if the next general election happens after Brexit, there will not be the same disciplining effect.</li><li>If Johnson can walk a very narrow path in the next 6 months (which is far from certain), he could be prime minister for a long time.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/15/theresa-may-condemns-trumps-remarks-about-four-congresswomen\" target=\"_blank\">Hunt and Johnson on Trump’s tweets</a></li><li><a href=\"https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1151027323669536769\" target=\"_blank\">Steve Baker’s tweet in response to Trump’s tweet</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n14/john-lanchester/good-new-idea\" target=\"_blank\">John Lanchester on Universal Basic Income</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n14/adam-tooze/which-is-worse\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Tooze on Germany</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/169-who-is-boris-johnson\" target=\"_blank\">Who is Boris Johnson?&nbsp;</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/170-the-party-splits-in-1846\" target=\"_blank\">The Party Splits! (In 1846!)</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}