{"version":"1.0","type":"rich","provider_name":"Acast","provider_url":"https://acast.com","height":250,"width":700,"html":"<iframe src=\"https://embed.acast.com/$/9a03fe9e-1ff0-4dcc-b3f6-50bd1f016ea4/195578ca-95fe-4b49-8c73-ffe20f2adac0?\" frameBorder=\"0\" width=\"700\" height=\"250\"></iframe>","title":"One Election or Many?","thumbnail_width":200,"thumbnail_height":200,"thumbnail_url":"https://open-images.acast.com/shows/6195701f2eacc3a36070252a/619570bccb3c660012e3d0ee.jpg?height=200","description":"<p>We have a first look at what's happening in the election campaign by asking whether it's really one election or many.&nbsp;Do national vote shares mean much any more, given all the regional variations?&nbsp;How is the Remain Alliance meant to work?&nbsp;Is this a Brexit election?&nbsp;And is 2015 or 2017 (or neither) a better guide to 2019?&nbsp;Plus we discuss the recent election in Spain and explore parallels between gridlock there and possible gridlock here.&nbsp;With Helen Thompson, Chris Bickerton and Mike Kenny.</p><p><br></p><p>Talking Points:</p><p><br></p><p>One month out from the election, what do we know?&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Why do commentators still rely on polls and betting markets?&nbsp;</li><li>What is the appropriate unit of analysis for this election? Is it regional? National?&nbsp;</li><li>The rural/urban divide seems to cut across the regional effects.&nbsp;</li><li>But tactical voting pulls things down to a more granular level: you have to look at particular seats.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Many people thought this would be a Brexit election, but it doesn’t really look like that.</p><ul><li>The big theme seems to be spending.&nbsp;</li><li>The anti-Corbyn factor also complicates things. Corbyn has generated both a new base, and a backlash.&nbsp;</li><li>The Lib-Dems tried to capitalize on this. But they’ve backed down on their anti-Corbyn stance in favour of the Remain alliance.</li><li>If you look at polling on the fundamentals, Johnson is outstripping Corbyn.</li><li>Conservative remainers say they won’t vote for Labour.</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Will this election be more like 2015 than 2017?</p><ul><li>Wider forces might overcome local variation.&nbsp;</li><li>Lib-Dem voters in the Southwest are generally closer to the Conservatives than Labour.&nbsp;</li><li>The SNP are now proactively in favour of a referendum, and Labour has essentially pulled out of the Unionist position. Who will speak for the Scottish unionists?</li></ul><p><br></p><p>There’s little scrutiny of Johnson’s deal.</p><ul><li>Farage won’t be fighting Johnson on this point. And Labour doesn’t want the election to be just about Brexit.&nbsp;</li></ul><p><br></p><p>In Spain, instead of breaking the deadlock, voters entrenched it. Could this happen in the UK?</p><ul><li>Catalonian independence also hardened far-right support.&nbsp;</li><li>Could Scotland drive English nationalism or increase support for far right parties?</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Mentioned in this Episode:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Betting odds for the next UK general election</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Further Learning:&nbsp;</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/media/uploads/files/Townscapes_Scotland_30_10_2019.pdf\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Mike’s new Bennett institute report on townscapes in Scotland</a></li><li><a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/11/spain-stalemate-inconclusive-elections-new-normal\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">More on the Spanish election</a></li></ul><p><br></p><p><strong>And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: </strong><a href=\"http://lrb.co.uk/talking\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>lrb.co.uk/talking</strong></a></p>","author_name":"David Runciman and Catherine Carr"}