Commodities should serve as a reliable safe haven in the event of an equity downturn next year according to Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management, who shared his prediction when he joined this week’s Asset Allocator podcast.
Joining Aamina Zafar and David Thorpe, Greetham draws parallels between today's economic environment and the stagflation of the 1970s, explaining why geopolitical tensions, energy prices and commodity shortages could make inflation a persistent challenge for investors.
He also questions whether the surge in US corporate earnings, fuelled partly by artificial intelligence investment, data centres and semiconductor spending, is sustainable. With US equity valuations elevated, Greetham makes the case for overlooked opportunities in UK and European stocks, describing the UK stock market as a potentially attractive, inflation-resilient investment.
The conversation also explores the changing outlook for government bonds, UK gilt yields and inflation-linked gilts, alongside the role of commodities and gold in protecting multi-asset portfolios.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Trevor Greetham on investing and inflation
03:09 - Central banks, interest rates and inflation hedges
04:27 - Where is the value in global equities?
06:29 - UK stocks, commodities and inflation resilience
09:45 - The risks of US stock market concentration
14:04 - How to invest in commodities using ETFs and indices
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