What happens to US defence funding if Democrats win the House?
In the final episode of this series of The Assessment, Charlie Edwards asks a conditional forecasting question: if Democrats hold a majority in the US House of Representatives on 3 January 2027, will Congress enact full-year FY2027 appropriations for the Department of Defense by 31 March?
An aggregate forecast from leading AI models puts the probability at just 34% — making this unlikely. But history points in the other direction: in 12 of the past 15 fiscal years, a full-year defence appropriation was enacted by the end of March.
Charlie is joined by Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Editor of Survival, and Michael Shear, Chief UK Correspondent for The New York Times and former White House correspondent.
They examine congressional dealmaking, the consequences of continuing resolutions for military readiness, disputes over Iran and presidential war powers and what prolonged budget dysfunction signals to US allies and adversaries.
Does the 34% forecast capture something the historical base rate misses?
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