What is the point of negotiating with Donald Trump when experience suggests that agreements may not be binding, concessions may not be reciprocal, and terms may not be honoured? Reports now suggest the Canadian government is preparing to make significant concessions, including allowing more American dairy into the Canadian market. But in this climate, and with this president, any Canadian concession should come with a concession of equal value from Washington. So what exactly is Ottawa’s strategy? Are its conflicting signals a deliberate effort at strategic ambiguity—or evidence that the government itself is divided? And how might Trump’s negotiating posture change if Republicans lose the U.S. midterms in November and he becomes a lame-duck president?
In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Andrew turn to the emerging Oman-Iran agreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz, asking whether it signals a retreat from freedom of navigation and another step in the decline of American power abroad. They argue that Trump fundamentally misunderstood the Iranian regime he was confronting and the retaliatory tools at its disposal. The result, they contend, is more than a strategic defeat: it is a humiliation for the United States.