Stanley Druckenmiller talks with John Collison about inflation, bear markets, and why he thinks the odds of a soft landing are remote. He explains the two historical records that have never been broken once inflation passes five percent, argues the Fed's slowness through 2021 and 2022 was enormously costly, and describes a setup he has never faced in forty five years, with eight percent inflation, three percent bond yields, and a weakening economy all at once. He walks through how he reads the economy from inside the stock market rather than from macro statistics, using housing, trucking, and retail as leading indicators, and why the bond market stopped signalling anything after a decade of central bank buying. He also tells the long version of the 2000 story, from shorting ten internet stocks and losing three times his money in four weeks, through the tech position that put him down eighteen percent, to the four-month sabbatical in Africa that let him come back and make forty percent in a single quarter. Along the way he explains why sizing is most of the game, why he tracks whether he is hot or cold before deciding how big to bet, and why he buys first and does the analysis afterward.
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