On October 2, the economy added 29,000 jobs against 90,000 expected, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and the stock market went up. The headline is that the economy had a bad day. The tradeoff is that the stock market had a good one, for the exact same reason. Mattie walks through why markets cheer bad news (it makes money cheaper), what 2009, 2022 and August 2024 show about where that rule breaks, and why the bond market is now the one sending the bill: the 10-year Treasury at 5.35%, its highest since 2002, a term premium at its highest since 2014, about $1 trillion a year in federal interest, and roughly $170 billion in AI bonds in six months. Plus what it means if you've been waiting for rates to fall.
","author_name":"Mattie Duppler"}