Fed Week is here. On Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee will vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, and Jay Powell will host his final FOMC press conference as chair. Mattie breaks down what this confirmation hearing actually reveals about the future of US monetary policy — and why the answer isn't what the headlines suggest.
The episode walks through three questions worth tracking:
The math of the FOMC. With 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee — seven board governors, the New York Fed president, and four rotating regional presidents — where are the actual votes for lower rates? Mattie maps the Trump appointees already in place (Powell, Bowman, Waller, Miran), why Lisa Cook's seat matters more than the chair fight, and why three of the 2026 rotating regional voters are typically hawkish. Lower rates are not the done deal the White House suggests.
The Powell question. Will Jay Powell stay on as a governor after his term as chair ends in May? His board seat doesn't expire until January 2028. This isn't gossip — it's the difference between a clear path to a Trump majority and a structural constraint that holds for another two years.
The transparency tradeoff. Warsh has been openly critical of the Fed's communication standards under Powell, including the dot plot and summary of economic projections. He prefers \"messy meetings\" with less public examination. Mattie agrees that healthy disagreement inside the room matters — but argues that pulling back on transparency would mean sharper market swings and a bigger informational advantage for full-time traders over everyone else.
Monetary policy may already feel obscure. The tradeoff is whether it gets harder still.
","author_name":"Mattie Duppler"}