Most strategic plans are built for one version of the future: the one your team thinks is most likely. That works until conditions change, and then the plan needs rewriting. Futures thinking adds a step before strategic planning: looking at several plausible futures, so the strategy you choose has room to adapt.
In this episode, host Mina Seetharaman talks with Jennifer Lo, Senior Director of Design Futures at IDEO, about what futures thinking is, how it strengthens strategy, and how any leader can build a signals practice.
Jennifer has 20 years of experience in design strategy and innovation leadership. She was a managing director for innovation and strategy at Kaiser Permanente, and she teaches strategic foresight and human-centered design at UC Berkeley’s Graduate School of Public Health and at McMaster University’s DeGroote School of Business. She is also the instructor of IDEO U’s Applied Futures Thinking course. This conversation was recorded live in front of a virtual audience, and you’ll hear their questions along the way.
If you lead a team or an organization, or you’re working toward it, this conversation will give you tangible ways to introduce futuring into your practice.
Related Resources
Jennifer Lo on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jennifer-lo-28654b3/
Applied Futures Thinking online course from IDEO U: https://www.ideou.com/products/applied-futures-thinking-course
Earlier episode, How to Think Like a Futurist with Jennifer Lo: https://shows.acast.com/creative-confidence-podcast/episodes/6913728a7728b8766cfdfc2a
How to Think Like a Futurist: A Leader’s Guide to Strategic Foresight and Better Decision Making: https://www.ideou.com/blogs/inspiration/how-to-think-like-a-futurist
Building an enduring futuring system, by Jennifer Lo: https://www.ideo.com/journal/building-an-enduring-futuring-system
The “used future” trap, by Jennifer Lo: https://www.ideo.com/journal/the-used-future-trap
Why futurists start with a backward glance, by Jennifer Lo: https://www.ideo.com/journal/why-futurists-start-with-a-backward-glance
In This Episode
Timestamps are approximate due to edits and ad breaks.
(00:00) Jennifer Lo’s background in futures thinking, design strategy and innovation leadership
(03:25) What does futures thinking mean? Live listeners weigh in
(05:05) What makes IDEO’s human-centered approach to futuring different
(09:20) How IDEO’s version of futuring compares with the quantitative futures work of RAND and Shell
(12:35) Why a strategy built on one expected future needs more flexibility
(14:25) Strategy mistakes that make a plan expire fast, and the used future trap
(20:15) Scanning, storytelling, and sense-making before strategy begins
(23:00) The pull between a strategy horizon and a futures horizon
(25:45) Why every leader benefits from futures thinking, and why a team of futurists would stall
(28:30) Backcasting turns a far-off future into choices for now
(30:30) How to start a signals practice in about an hour a week
(33:35) Signals, trends, and drivers, explained
(34:20) Why you should never scan for signals alone
(36:40) What futures thinking reveals in healthcare
(40:15) Signals arrays and systems thinking
(41:40) How the pace of change, AI included, changes the way Jennifer judges signals
(43:40) What makes a future scenario credible to a skeptical leader
(45:15) How Jennifer got hooked on futures thinking
(47:50) The mindset shift from control to agency
(48:25) Lightning round: what to watch, who to read, and advice to her younger self
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